中华武术散打之局部力量与整体力量解读

散打之力量是散打运动中除运动技术等要素外,非常重要的另一要素,散打之力量在运动中表现出两个方面的应用,即散打之局部力量和整体力量;散打之局部力量和整体力量在比赛中交替展现,正是由于散打之局部力量和整体力量的不停变换使用及不同情况下各种力量共同作用,运动员才能在比赛中赢得胜利。散打之局部力量与整体力量的科学应用与训练不仅塑造了练习者完美的运动身形,而且培养了个人不凡的运动气质,是一项完美的体育运动。     

跨区域大气污染联合防治中的地方政府 演化博弈分析

针对大气污染呈现出的复合型、流动性和跨区域的特点，将地方政府在大气污染联合防治中的相互影响总结为“同向外部效应”和“部分排他效应”，应用演化博弈分析法，剖析地方政府之间大气污染联合防治的演化过程和演化结果。研究结果表明：地方政府治污成本的降低、对不治理污染地方政府惩罚力度的加大、地方政府治理大气污染效果的提高、地方政府不治理大气污染可见性的提升、大气污染治理外部性的减弱等都有助于演化博弈的稳定策略向地方政府跨区域联合防治的方向演进，从而有助于提升大气污染的治理效果，达到改善生态环境的目的。     

Local estimation for varying-coefficient models with longitudinal data

Varying-coefficient models are very useful for longitudinal data analysis. In this paper, we focus on varying-coefficient models for longitudinal data. We develop a new estimation procedure using Cholesky decomposition and profile least squares techniques. Asymptotic normality for the proposed estimators of varying-coefficient functions has been established. Monte Carlo simulation studies show excellent finite-sample performance. We illustrate our methods with a real data example.     

Confidence distributions applied to propagating uncertainty to inference based on estimating the local false discovery rate: A fiducial continuum from confidence sets to empirical Bayes set estimates as the number of comparisons increases

Empirical Bayes estimates of the local false discovery rate can reflect uncertainty about the estimated prior by supplementing their Bayesian posterior probabilities with confidence levels as posterior probabilities. This use of coherent fiducial inference with hierarchical models generates set estimators that propagate uncertainty to varying degrees. Some of the set estimates approach estimates from plug-in empirical Bayes methods for high numbers of comparisons and can come close to the usual confidence sets given a sufficiently low number of comparisons.     

Piecewise FARIMA models for long-memory time series

We consider the problem of modelling a long-memory time series using piecewise fractional autoregressive integrated moving average processes. The number as well as the locations of structural break points (BPs) and the parameters of each regime are assumed to be unknown. A four-step procedure is proposed to find out the BPs and to estimate the parameters of each regime. Its effectiveness is shown by Monte Carlo simulations and an application to real traffic data modelling is considered.     

地方高校和谐管理与和谐校园建设

和谐管理思想是一种科学的管理思想，对组织实现目标和社会价值具有重要指导意义．其思想和研究方法对当前地方高校构建和谐校园有重要价值。以公平公正的育人环境创建和谐的校园，以专业调整和完善制度提高学生素质．以创新办学模式缓解毕业生就业难，以和谐预警机制及控制系统维护校园的长期稳定，将有助于地方高校进一步消除不和谐因素，维护校园稳定。     

Structuring composite local governance indicators

The importance of good governance is praised by many academics and practitioners. The prominence of the subject suggests that measurement is important. However, setting out to measure the quality of governance empirically is controversial. Doubts regarding the feasibility and meaningfulness of this undertaking are widespread in the literature. Recognizing the potential caveats, the current article discusses a set of guidelines for structuring a theoretically sound local governance assessment tool based on the Decision Analysis and Operational Research literatures. The authors argue that using a multi-criteria model which employs several objective (quantitative and qualitative) indicators and relies on a participatory method to aggregate them is a suitable way of developing sensible Local Governance Indicators. The purpose here is to provide a detailed roadmap for any country (or region, or locality) willing to engage in the assessment of the quality of local governance. The real-world implementation of a model developed according to these guidelines could help raise awareness, promote good practices and increase the ‘governance literacy’ of citizens. By operationalizing good governance, analysts may also be able to further investigate the relationships between local governance practices and several socio-economic factors.     

Local logisitic regression an application to army penetration data

There have been a number of procedures used to analyze non-monotonic binary data to predict the probability of response. Some classical procedures are the Up and Down strategy, the Robbins–Monro procedure, and other sequential optimization designs. Recently, nonparametric procedures such as kernel regression and local linear regression (llogr) have been applied to this type of data. It is a well known fact that kernel regression has problems fitting the data near the boundaries and a drawback with local linear regression is that it may be “too linear” when fitting data from a curvilinear function. The procedure introduced in this paper is called local logistic regression, which fits a logistic regression function at each of the data points. An example is given using United States Army projectile data that supports the use of local logistic regression when analyzing non-monotonic binary data for certain response curves. Properties of local logistic regression will be presented along with simulation results that indicate some of the strengths of the procedure.     

Convergence rates for uniform confidence intervals based on local polynomial regression estimators

We investigate the convergence rates of uniform bias-corrected confidence intervals for a smooth curve using local polynomial regression for both the interior and boundary region. We discuss the cases when the degree of the polynomial is odd and even. The uniform confidence intervals are based on the volume-of-tube formula modified for biased estimators. We empirically show that the proposed uniform confidence intervals attain, at least approximately, nominal coverage. Finally, we investigate the performance of the volume-of-tube based confidence intervals for independent non-Gaussian errors.     

土地征收进程中不同参与主体行为研究

城镇化进程中农民集体所有土地转变为城市国有土地,在该过程中产生大量的土地增值收益。地方政府、用地企业、村委会和农民在土地增值收益分配中有不同的行为表现,其根本原因在于利益分配冲突。从不同主体行为角度对土地增值收益分配中利益冲突问题进行研究,有利于探讨利益冲突背后的原因并提出有针对性的政策建议。