Covariate Order Tests for Covariate Effect

A new approach for constructing tests for association between a random right censored life time variable and a covariate is proposed. The basic idea is to first arrange the observations in increasing order of the covariate and then base the test on a certain point process defined by the observation times. Tests constructed by this approach are robust against outliers in the covariate values or misspecification of the covariate scale since they only use the ordering of the covariate. Of particular interest is a test based on the Anderson-Darling statistic. This test has good power properties both against monotonic and nonmonotonic dependencies between the covariate and the life time variable.     

试论对宗教信仰的社会观照与人生观照

从社会批判的角度看,宗教的确是"人民的鸦片";但是如对宗教进行人生观照,又不难发现其在终极价值关怀上的某些特殊意义.我们不仅要从社会批判的角度宏观分析宗教信仰的存在,而且也要从人生的角度,内在地观照、肯定宗教对于人生的积极意义方面,并以此为契机在教育及宗教两个系统内实现对宗教教育与文化资源的深度开掘与利用.     

Estimation of a Change Point in a Hazard Function Based on Censored Data

The hazard function plays an important role in reliability or survival studies since it describes the instantaneous risk of failure of items at a time point, given that they have not failed before. In some real life applications, abrupt changes in the hazard function are observed due to overhauls, major operations or specific maintenance activities. In such situations it is of interest to detect the location where such a change occurs and estimate the size of the change. In this paper we consider the problem of estimating a single change point in a piecewise constant hazard function when the observed variables are subject to random censoring. We suggest an estimation procedure that is based on certain structural properties and on least squares ideas. A simulation study is carried out to compare the performance of this estimator with two estimators available in the literature: an estimator based on a functional of the Nelson-Aalen estimator and a maximum likelihood estimator. The proposed least squares estimator tums out to be less biased than the other two estimators, but has a larger variance. We illustrate the estimation method on some real data sets.     

认识活动辩证运动的逻辑起点：认识角度——认识活动辩证运动新论

认识活动“自己构成自己的道路” ,是由自身内在矛盾推动的辩证运动过程。实践对认识的决定作用必须通过制约和影响认识自身的内在矛盾才能实现。认识活动辩证运动的内在逻辑线索 ,是认识活动由其历史与逻辑统一的起点经中介条件向真理性认识结论辩证运动、系统演进的过程。为逻辑分析的需要 ,我们将这样的过程称之为一个“认识单元”。作为认识活动辩证运动的逻辑起点的认识角度及其丰富的内在规定性 ,在理论形态内在角度分析的方法论意义。     

论邓小平德育理论的逻辑结构

邓小平德育理论是具有中国社会主义特色的德育理论 ,它以马列主义哲学观作为指导思想 ,以“解放思想、实事求是”作为逻辑起点 ,以面向现代化、面向世界、面向未来作为价值取向。其操作过程具有战略、时代特征和中国初级阶段社会主义特色。为我国社会主义德育理论和实践的研究提供了全新的视角     

"七一"讲话理论创新是时代精神的升华

党的地位及其自身建设的变化提出的新的时代课题,是"七一"讲话实现马克思主义中国化又一次理论创新的出发点.国内环境的变化是"七一"讲话实现马克思主义中国化又一次理论创新的立足点.国际环境的变化是"七一"讲话实现马克思主义中国化又一次理论创新的着眼点."七一"讲话体现了以江泽民为核心的第三代领导集体坚持马克思主义与时俱进的理论品格,是时代精神的升华.     

依托渝怀铁路实施以路兴区发展战略

结合渝怀线的现有资源和经济状况，采用定性和定量相结合的方法分析了渝怀经济带在西部大开发中的地位、作用及近远期发展战略和思路。     

社会新闻报道的三个选择

社会新闻是以报道社会生活中的人际关系、精神风貌和伦理道德为主的新闻 ,在实践中 ,某些媒体片面追求“卖点”,忽视正确的舆论导向 ,致使一些格调低劣、色情淫秽、凶杀暴力、荒诞不经的内容被播发 ,贻害了社会 ,污染了读者 ,玷污了媒体的形象 ,降低了媒体的品位。社会新闻只有从内容、角度、时机上加以选择 ,才能做到经济效益、社会效益双丰收 ,才能做到可读性、思想性、引导性的最佳结合     

Hazards regression for freemium products and services: a competing risks approach

We propose a competing risks approach to analyse customer behaviours in freemium products and services. The event of interest is when a customer starts to pay for additional features or functionalities. The observation of such an event may be preempted by an event where the customer quits using the product before paying and consuming the additional features or functionalities. One such freemium service is the online game category. The Fine-Gray regression model was implemented for an online game player activity data to study how covariates affect the paying hazard. Some covariates are hypothesized to have different discrete effects at multiple change points. We extend the model to allow for possible change points in the analysis.     

Practical Maximum Pseudolikelihood for Spatial Point Patterns(with Discussion)

This paper describes a technique for computing approximate maximum pseudolikelihood estimates of the parameters of a spatial point process. The method is an extension of Berman & Turner's (1992) device for maximizing the likelihoods of inhomogeneous spatial Poisson processes. For a very wide class of spatial point process models the likelihood is intractable, while the pseudolikelihood is known explicitly, except for the computation of an integral over the sampling region. Approximation of this integral by a finite sum in a special way yields an approximate pseudolikelihood which is formally equivalent to the (weighted) likelihood of a loglinear model with Poisson responses. This can be maximized using standard statistical software for generalized linear or additive models, provided the conditional intensity of the process takes an 'exponential family' form. Using this approach a wide variety of spatial point process models of Gibbs type can be fitted rapidly, incorporating spatial trends, interaction between points, dependence on spatial covariates, and mark information.