对魏晋士人同一性危机的探源与思考——兼评郭世轩先生的《魏晋艺术精神研究》

魏晋士人的同一性危机,既是一个时代问题,也是一个世代问题。研究魏晋士人的同一性危机,不仅要着眼于魏晋时期的政治、经济与文化,也要探源逐流,研究两汉时期的历史状况。魏晋士人的同一性危机在两汉时期就已经埋下了伏笔。两汉时期,尤其是儒学取得至尊地位以后,士人受儒家伦理道德观念的浸染,志行高洁,少有违礼纵情的。但由于两汉政治局势的混乱,儒学一度低迷,士人的思想极端混乱,这为魏晋士人的自我认同埋下了祸根。同时,由于魏晋的政局更加无序,尤其是统治者对名教的破坏,使得魏晋士人的同一性危机更加突出。     

基于实数编码加速遗传投影寻踪方法在物流供应商选择中的应用

针对第三方物流供应商评价指标数据的不确定性和高维性,为克服以往评价方法的不足,提出了综合评价的基于实数编码加速遗传投影寻踪方法。采用投影寻踪模型将高维数据投影到低维子空间上,并对数据结构进行分析;采用基于实数编码的加速遗传算法优化投影方向,克服了投影寻踪模型最佳投影方向难于寻找或容易陷入局部最优的问题;通过最佳投影方向来判断各评价指标对综合评价目标的影响程度和方向,得出投影指标值从大到小的排序。同时,对物流供应商做深入分析,将这一方法用于对低维数据（二级指标）进行评价排序,结果显示与综合评价基本一致,达到了对第三方物流供应商科学、准确的评价,可为企业正确选择物流供应商提供依据。     

沈阳市残疾人社会保障体系的制度设计与供需预测分析

针对在覆盖城乡居民的社会保障进程中,亟待构建符合残疾人需求、完善、适度的社会保障制度体系问题,在全国第一、二次残疾人抽样调查资料的基础上,结合沈阳市城乡残疾人社会保障调研数据,设计残疾人社会保障制度的框架、内容,并深入分析制度设计的合意性,同时对未来城乡残疾人社会保障进行供需预测分析,并提出完善特殊群体社会保障制度的政策建议。     

Variability explained by covariates in linear mixed‐effect models for longitudinal data

Variability explained by covariates or explained variance is a well‐known concept in assessing the importance of covariates for dependent outcomes. In this paper we study R² statistics of explained variance pertinent to longitudinal data under linear mixed‐effect models, where the R² statistics are computed at two different levels to measure, respectively, within‐ and between‐subject variabilities explained by the covariates. By deriving the limits of R² statistics, we find that the interpretation of explained variance for the existing R² statistics is clear only in the case where the covariance matrix of the outcome vector is compound symmetric. Two new R² statistics are proposed to address the effect of time‐dependent covariate means. In the general case where the outcome covariance matrix is not compound symmetric, we introduce the concept of compound symmetry projection and use it to define level‐one and level‐two R² statistics. Numerical results are provided to support the theoretical findings and demonstrate the performance of the R² statistics. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 38: 352–368; 2010 © 2010 Statistical Society of Canada     

中国宏观经济情境设计与路径预测

路径预测是通过构建联合置信区间来获得未来多期预测的可能范围,覆盖了中国宏观经济的可能运行路径。通过系统迭代和直接预测方法对我国宏观经济中的产出,通胀和利率进行蒙特卡洛模拟和路径预测,并在特定宏观经济情景下进行伪样本外条件路径预测。基于中国数据的蒙特卡洛模拟结果显示Scheffé方法构建的预测路径具有合理的路径覆盖范围,是判定预测不确定性的合理且有效方法,伪样本外条件路径预测显示合理的情境设计能够得出更为有效的预测路径。     

Estimation and inference for generalized semi-varying coefficient models

This paper is concerned with the estimation and inference in generalized semi-varying coefficient models. An orthogonal projection local quasi-likelihood estimation is investigated, which can easily be used to estimate the model parametric and nonparametric parts. Then an empirical likelihood logarithmic approach to construct the confidence regions/intervals of the nonparametric parts is developed. Under some mild conditions, the asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are studied explicitly, respectively. Some simulation studies are carried out to examine the finite sample performance of the proposed methods. Finally, the methodologies are illustrated by a real data set.     

Sharp bounds for the mean of the total time on test for distributions with increasing generalized failure rate

The results of this paper are the continuation of the research presented by Bieniek [Optimal bounds for the mean of the total time on test for distributions with decreasing generalized failure rate. Statistics. 2016;50:1206–1220]. We consider the remaining total time on test after a given failure in a life test experiment. We derive sharp upper bounds on the mean of the total time on test optimal in the class of distributions with increasing generalized failure rate with respect to generalized Pareto distributions. Specific results are obtained for distributions with increasing density and increasing failure rate. We also provide exemplary numerical values of the obtained bounds and we compare them with the corresponding bounds for distributions with decreasing generalized failure rate.     

关于赛珍珠个人和笔下的问题婚姻的札记或西方主义入门

在民国时期的南京期间,赛珍珠和约翰·洛辛·布克共同经历不幸福的婚姻,照顾残障女儿,并从事文学事业。她在这个时期的小说和回忆录里,开始描写一系列婚姻,对有别于西方和她的传教士家庭的中国的性道德观念的认知方式在《结发妻及其他故事》中的许多作品都直接和间接地有所反映,她处理了跨文化婚姻不美满的问题,有时则通过再现中国妇女的困境来投射她对自己婚姻的关切。     

基于支持向量机模型的北京市能源需求预测研究

北京市能源需求系统具有非线性、历史数据较少而影响因素众多等复杂特征, 而支持向量机模型在解决小样本、非线性及高维模式识别问题方面具有突出优势。为此, 引入支持向量机模型对北京市1978-2010年能源需求进行建模, 并据此对2012-2020年能源需求量进行预测。结果表明:支持向量机模型能有效拟合北京市能源需求系统的复杂变化趋势, 比其他传统方法有更高的预测精度。研究发现, 2012-2020年北京市能源需求量逐年增加, 年均增速2.75%;另外, 北京市能源需求的增速在“十三五”期间会比“十二五”期间略有趋缓。     

前提的类型特征、激活模式以及日语语句意义的理解

前提是句子语义得以形成的必要条件．也是语句意义的一种,包涵语义前提和语用前提两类。语义前提多为隐含在语句之中通过推论可以解读的意义,而语用前提则多为言外之意多通过语境和推论读取。本文认为,前提的认知和理解既受到投射的影响也与激活密不可分．而激活更是我们从复数个前提中读取其中之一并将解读导向理解的关键因素。