女性香水容器的造型设计与时代审美特点的关系

女性香水容器造型设计的历史与时代审美相一致,其造型形式随着时代发展表现出不同的类型,这些类型的变化显示了其历史的演进与各个时代审美特点之间的密切关系。     

Complex Latent Variable Modeling in Educational Assessment

Bayesian item response theory models have been widely used in different research fields. They support measuring constructs and modeling relationships between constructs, while accounting for complex test situations (e.g., complex sampling designs, missing data, heterogenous population). Advantages of this flexible modeling framework together with powerful simulation-based estimation techniques are discussed. Furthermore, it is shown how the Bayes factor can be used to test relevant hypotheses in assessment using the College Basic Academic Subjects Examination (CBASE) data.     

A Stochastic Model to Assess the Effect of Meat Inspection Practices on the Contamination of the Pig Carcasses

The objective of meat inspection is to promote animal and public health by preventing, detecting, and controlling hazards originating from animals. With the improvements of sanitary level in pig herds, the hazards profile has shifted and the inspection procedures no longer target major foodborne pathogens (i.e., not risk based). Additionally, carcass manipulations performed when searching for macroscopic lesions can lead to cross‐contamination. We therefore developed a stochastic model to quantitatively describe cross‐contamination when consecutive carcasses are submitted to classic inspection procedures. The microbial hazard used to illustrate the model was Salmonella, the data set was obtained from Brazilian slaughterhouses, and some simplifying assumptions were made. The model predicted that due to cross‐contamination during inspection, the prevalence of contaminated carcass surfaces increased from 1.2% to 95.7%, whereas the mean contamination on contaminated surfaces decreased from 1 logCFU/cm² to ?0.87 logCFU/cm², and the standard deviations decreased from 0.65 to 0.19. These results are explained by the fact that, due to carcass manipulations with hands, knives, and hooks, including the cutting of contaminated lymph nodes, Salmonella is transferred to previously uncontaminated carcasses, but in small quantities. These small quantities can easily go undetected during sampling. Sensitivity analyses gave insight into the model performance and showed that the touching and cutting of lymph nodes during inspection can be an important source of carcass contamination. The model can serve as a tool to support discussions on the modernization of pig carcass inspection.     

Incorporating Time‐Dose‐Response into Legionella Outbreak Models

A novel method was used to incorporate in vivo host–pathogen dynamics into a new robust outbreak model for legionellosis. Dose‐response and time‐dose‐response (TDR) models were generated for Legionella longbeachae exposure to mice via the intratracheal route using a maximum likelihood estimation approach. The best‐fit TDR model was then incorporated into two L. pneumophila outbreak models: an outbreak that occurred at a spa in Japan, and one that occurred in a Melbourne aquarium. The best‐fit TDR from the murine dosing study was the beta‐Poisson with exponential‐reciprocal dependency model, which had a minimized deviance of 32.9. This model was tested against other incubation distributions in the Japan outbreak, and performed consistently well, with reported deviances ranging from 32 to 35. In the case of the Melbourne outbreak, the exponential model with exponential dependency was tested against non‐time‐dependent distributions to explore the performance of the time‐dependent model with the lowest number of parameters. This model reported low minimized deviances around 8 for the Weibull, gamma, and lognormal exposure distribution cases. This work shows that the incorporation of a time factor into outbreak distributions provides models with acceptable fits that can provide insight into the in vivo dynamics of the host‐pathogen system.     

Modeling the Adenoma and Serrated Pathway to Colorectal CAncer (ASCCA)

Several colorectal cancer (CRC) screening models have been developed describing the progression of adenomas to CRC. Currently, there is increasing evidence that serrated lesions can also develop into CRC. It is not clear whether screening tests have the same test characteristics for serrated lesions as for adenomas, but lower sensitivities have been suggested. Models that ignore this type of colorectal lesions may provide overly optimistic predictions of the screen‐induced reduction in CRC incidence. To address this issue, we have developed the Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal CAncer (ASCCA) model that includes the adenoma‐carcinoma pathway and the serrated pathway to CRC as well as characteristics of colorectal lesions. The model structure and the calibration procedure are described in detail. Calibration resulted in 19 parameter sets for the adenoma‐carcinoma pathway and 13 for the serrated pathway that match the age‐ and sex‐specific adenoma and serrated lesion prevalence in the COlonoscopy versus COlonography Screening (COCOS) trial, Dutch CRC incidence and mortality rates, and a number of other intermediate outcomes concerning characteristics of colorectal lesions. As an example, we simulated outcomes for a biennial fecal immunochemical test screening program and a hypothetical one‐time colonoscopy screening program. Inclusion of the serrated pathway influenced the predicted effectiveness of screening when serrated lesions are associated with lower screening test sensitivity or when they are not removed. To our knowledge, this is the first model that explicitly includes the serrated pathway and characteristics of colorectal lesions. It is suitable for the evaluation of the (cost)effectiveness of potential screening strategies for CRC.     

利用数学软件复原碎纸片的方法

研究了碎纸片的拼接复原问题,建立了合理有效的碎纸片拼接复原的数学模型；给出了数学软件实现自动拼接的具体算法；结合人工拼接得出复原图片；最后,对所给的拼接方法提出了改进方向.     

An Agent‐Based Model for Pathogen Persistence and Cross‐Contamination Dynamics in a Food Facility

We used an agent‐based modeling (ABM) framework and developed a mathematical model to explain the complex dynamics of microbial persistence and spread within a food facility and to aid risk managers in identifying effective mitigation options. The model explicitly considered personal hygiene practices by food handlers as well as their activities and simulated a spatially explicit dynamic system representing complex interaction patterns among food handlers, facility environment, and foods. To demonstrate the utility of the model in a decision‐making context, we created a hypothetical case study and used it to compare different risk mitigation strategies for reducing contamination and spread of Listeria monocytogenes in a food facility. Model results indicated that areas with no direct contact with foods (e.g., loading dock and restroom) can serve as contamination niches and recontaminate areas that have direct contact with food products. Furthermore, food handlers’ behaviors, including, for example, hygiene and sanitation practices, can impact the persistence of microbial contamination in the facility environment and the spread of contamination to prepared foods. Using this case study, we also demonstrated benefits of an ABM framework for addressing food safety in a complex system in which emergent system‐level responses are predicted using a bottom‐up approach that observes individual agents (e.g., food handlers) and their behaviors. Our model can be applied to a wide variety of pathogens, food commodities, and activity patterns to evaluate efficacy of food‐safety management practices and quantify contamination reductions associated with proposed mitigation strategies in food facilities.     

模拟混相驱动态的拟四组分模型

通常模拟混相驱动态采用组分模型,由于组分模型求解工作量大,计算速度慢,要求输入的参数较多,而这些参数很难取全取准,同时组分模型不易被油藏工程师所掌握。因此,介绍了一种模拟混相驱动态的模拟模型,该模型是在黑油模型基础上发展起来的拟四组分模型,它兼有黑油模型和多组分模型的某些优点,如黑油模型的稳定性好和计算速度快、组分模型的可模拟凝析气藏和混相驱等;给出了数学模型及各种物理参数以及混相流体性质的处理方法。该模型还以SPE为例进行计算,结果与SPE的结果一致,从而验证了本模型的可靠性。     

抽汲井试井分析数学模型的建立及精确解

根据抽汲井试井工艺过程及其特点,采用已知上一次抽汲结束时的地层压力分布规律建立下一次抽汲数学模型的方法,建立了抽汲井试井分析数学模型,并在Laplace空间求解出了相应的精确解。将这一成果应用于长庆油田之中,结果表明:该理论能描述抽汲井的井底压力瞬变性及抽汲期井底压力变化无规律性的特征,符合实际测试工艺情况,弥补了抽汲井试井这一空白;提高了该类井试井的解释率和解释结果的可信度。同时,利用该理论还可计算抽汲过程中任一时刻的井底压力和关井时刻的井底压力,解决了抽汲井难以计算关井时刻井底压力的问题。     

Predictive Hierarchic Modeling of Operational Characteristics in Clinical Trials

An analytic methodology for patient enrollment modeling using a Poisson-gamma model is developed by Anisimov & Fedorov (2005–2007). For modeling hierarchic processes associated with enrollment, a new methodology using evolving stochastic processes is proposed. This provides rather general and unified framework to describe various operational processes associated with enrollment. The technique for calculating predictive distributions, mean, and credibility bounds for evolving processes is developed. Some applications to modeling operational characteristics in clinical trials are considered with focus to modeling events associated with incoming and follow-up patients in different settings. For these models, predictive characteristics are derived in a closed form.