基于顾客退货的闭环供应链运作绩效研究

为了探讨顾客退货情境下的供应链运作绩效问题,采用动态建模方法对产品正向物流和退货逆向物流为一体的闭环供应链系统进行研究,构建生产-分销-市场-退货-再处理-再销售等多个环节的系统运作模型.通过计算机仿真方法模拟不同情境下系统的动态行为规律,着重从产品生命周期视角探讨顾客退货对供应链系统运作绩效的影响;以系统总利润为指标,评估退货率、退货处理时间、产品价格衰减等因素的影响效应.研究结果表明,无论是对长生命周期产品还是短生命周期产品,退货率和产品价格衰减均是影响系统绩效的关键因素,高退货率和高价格衰减会显著削弱供应链整体的盈利能力,导致系统总利润大幅下滑.对于陷入高退货、高价格衰减困境的企业,设定相对较短的退货期限可以在一定程度上改善盈利情况;此外,当加快退货处理速度不会引起额外的成本投资时,快速的退货处理方式对企业更为有益,特别是对短生命周期产品而言,缩短退货环节的处理时间具有非常显著的经济价值.     

基于物联网的在线、智能调度方法的相关思考

物联网的飞速发展给生产调度系统带来了前所未有的机遇和挑战,数据的多源异构和连续涌入性、信息的透明性以及人、物料、设备、生产过程、产品等众多对象呈现出的连续动态存在性,这些新特征导致传统的调度优化方法难以适用。在已有研究的基础上,总结了物联网、调度优化方法以及基于情景的建模方法的研究现状和存在的问题,分析基于物联网的在线智能调度涉及到的问题及其特征,并提出其中的关键科学问题是基于情景的在线建模方法;提出该问题未来的研究目标为:针对物联网环境下调度对象状态的动态连续变化性,提供一种在线实时的智能优化调度方法,以最终实现调度优化过程的连续性以及调度优化决策的科学性、有效性和实用性;并详细阐述了未来关于基于情景的建模方法、基于情景的模型实时求解方法和基于情景的在线调度决策支持方法三方面的研究内容,为后续的深入研究做前期的思考和探索。     

《建筑力学》课的教学探索

本文作者从自身从事《建筑力学》课的教学实践出发 ,就加强学生基础知识 ,培养学生实践能力 ,合理调整课程内容结构 ,激励学生创造性思维等方面进行了较为系统、深入的阐述     

Visual Studio .NET Enterprise Architects中基于 Visio的数据库建模

Visio是UML的建模工具,也可以利用它对数据库建模,规范数据库的开发过程.本文详细地讨论了利用Visio进行规范化数据库建模的方法.     

基于PBL教育理念的数学建模课程的教与学

为解决有限的学习时间与知识爆炸之间的矛盾,从教学本质出发,将PBL教育理念在数学建模课程的教与学方面进行了实践,并将实践结果与传统模式下的教学进行对照,发现以PBL教育理念为指导的教与学不仅能够激发学生的学习兴趣,而且有利于形成学生的创新思维与创新能力。     

Economic Modeling Triggers More Efficient Planning: An Experimental Justification

Consider a firm as an organization that needs to efficiently coordinate several specialized departments in an uncertain environment. Decision making involves collective planning sessions and decentralized operational processes. In this setting this paper explores the role of economic modeling through an experimental game. Results support the idea that economic modeling favors higher performance. Economic modeling facilitates the emergence of common knowledge and the decomposition of a group decision problem into individual decision problems that are meaningfully interrelated. This paper was presented at the Porquerolles Summer School on Cognitive Sciences, September 2001.     

基于两阶段风险的定制类信息系统开发项目绩效模型构建与实证研究

开发阶段绩效风险和实施阶段绩效风险是信息系统开发项目中两个重要的中介变量,它们调节了项目内在不确定性和管理实践对项目绩效的影响.在项目不同阶段,绩效风险的主要影响因素是不同的.在开发阶段,主要影响因素是项目计划和控制、内部整合和用户参与;在实施阶段,主要影响因素是用户参与和高层支持.另外,用户参与直接地正向影响产品绩效,但对过程绩效没有直接影响.过程绩效对产品绩效也没有显著的正向影响.     

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Risk-Reduction Strategies for Consumer Chemical Products

Communication about risks offers a voluntary approach to reducing exposure to pollutants. Its adequacy depends on its impact on behavior. Estimating those impacts first requires characterizing current activities and their associated risk levels, and then predicting the effectiveness of risk-reduction strategies. Characterizing the risks from chemical consumer products requires knowledge of both the physical and the behavioral processes that influence exposures. This article presents an integrated approach that combines consumer interviews, users' beliefs and behaviors, and quantitative exposure modeling. This model was demonstrated in the context of consumer exposure to a methylene chloride-based paint stripper, showing how it could be used to evaluate current levels of risk and predict the effectiveness of proposed voluntary risk-reduction strategies.     

A Model for Setting Performance Objectives for Salmonella in the Broiler Supply Chain

A stochastic model for setting performance objectives for Salmonella in the broiler supply chain was developed. The goal of this study was to develop a model by which performance objectives for Salmonella prevalence at various points in the production chain can be determined, based on a preset final performance objective at the end of the processing line. The transmission of Salmonella through the broiler production chain was modeled. The prevalence at flock level was calculated from the measured prevalence at sample level. The transmission model is based on data on the occurrence of Salmonella collected in the Dutch broiler production chain during several years. The developed model can be used by policymakers and industry to determine economically and politically acceptable performance objectives for various points of the production chain and to draw conclusions about which interventions are most appropriate.