信息一致性视角下媒体报道对风险感知的影响

舆论多元化导致受众不再依赖于单一的官方或者非官方媒体获取风险信息,官方与非官方媒体提供的风险信息叠加如何影响受众风险感知成为重要问题。基于系统-启发式理论模型基础上利用实验法与调查研究法探究了信息偏向性、媒体类型及信息一致性对风险感知的影响。研究发现信息负面偏向性显著正向影响风险感知,但受媒体类型（官方与非官方媒体）的调节作用。同时媒体内信息的一致性影响受众的风险信息加工,在信息一致性时受众倾向于线索启发式加工即基于信息内容的正负偏向性做出判断,而在不一致性时则整合信息内容与媒体类型进行系统式加工,信息内容与媒体类型共同影响风险感知。     

黑果枸杞组培繁殖培养基选择

以黑果枸杞种子为材料,通过配比不同质量浓度植物生长调节剂的方法,研究在其组织培养快速繁殖过程中培养基的选择.结果表明：MS培养基适合黑果枸杞种子萌发与生长;无菌苗在MS+1.0 mg/L 6-BA+0.1 mg/L IBA培养基中可以形成较好的愈伤组织;在MS+0.4 mg/L 6-BA+0.1 mg/L IBA培养基中不定芽数量较多;适宜生根的培养基为1/2 MS+1.5 mg/L IBA,生根率为98%.组培苗在泥炭土、蛭石、珍珠岩(2∶1∶1)混合基质中移栽成活率高达93%.     

Improving the Power of Tests of Stochastic Dominance

We extend Hansen's (2005) recentering method to a continuum of inequality constraints to construct new Kolmogorov–Smirnov tests for stochastic dominance of any pre-specified order. We show that our tests have correct size asymptotically, are consistent against fixed alternatives and are unbiased against some N^?1/2 local alternatives. It is shown that by avoiding the use of the least favorable configuration, our tests are less conservative and more powerful than Barrett and Donald's (2003) and in some simulation examples we consider, we find that our tests can be more powerful than the subsampling test of Linton et al. (2005 Linton, O., Maasoumi, E., Whang, Y.-J. (2005). Consistent testing for stochastic dominance under general sampling schemes. The Review of Economic Studies 72:735–765.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We apply our method to test stochastic dominance relations between Canadian income distributions in 1978 and 1986 as considered in Barrett and Donald (2003 Barrett, G. F., Donald, S. G. (2003). Consistent tests for stochastic dominance. Econometrica 71: 71–104.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and find that some of the hypothesis testing results are different using the new method.     

Detection and Estimation of Block Structure in Spatial Weight Matrix

In many economic applications, it is often of interest to categorize, classify, or label individuals by groups based on similarity of observed behavior. We propose a method that captures group affiliation or, equivalently, estimates the block structure of a neighboring matrix embedded in a Spatial Econometric model. The main results of the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (Lasso) estimator shows that off-diagonal block elements are estimated as zeros with high probability, property defined as “zero-block consistency.” Furthermore, we present and prove zero-block consistency for the estimated spatial weight matrix even under a thin margin of interaction between groups. The tool developed in this article can be used as a verification of block structure by applied researchers, or as an exploration tool for estimating unknown block structures. We analyzed the U.S. Senate voting data and correctly identified blocks based on party affiliations. Simulations also show that the method performs well.     

“事件团结”与村庄生活共同体再造——基于一起乡村事件的实证分析

村庄共同体在承载生态多样性,维系乡村社会秩序,弥补国家基层治理不足等多方面起着重要作用。然而,在乡村人口分化和流动的背景下,以自然村为单位的村庄既不是滕尼斯式的村庄共同体,也不是原子化状态,而是呈现出介于二者之间,但趋向原子化的一种状态。文章通过个案研究发现,村庄精英借助村庄差序格局关系的社会资源和自身具备的外部资源,以行动干预方式,发起并塑造具有共同情感的符号和集体认同的村庄事件,发挥新媒介对村庄资源的整合功能,弥补国家基层组织应有的社会整合和利益分配功能,使“事件团结”再造村庄生活共同体和推进乡村建设具有可行性。但也应看到,村庄生活共同体再造还需国家有条件的干预,改进国家基层政权建设机制,实现村庄集体资源的公正分配,这是推进乡村建设必须面对的现实利益基础。     

Estimation of the Average Survival Function Using a Censored Data Regression Model

In the presence of covariates information, assuming the linear relationship between a transformation of survival time and covariates, we propose a new estimator of survival function and show its consistency. In addition, a comparison of the proposed estimator with the product-limit estimator introduced by Kaplan and Meier (1958) is performed through Monte Carlo simulation studies. We illustrate the proposed estimator with the updated Stanford heart transplant data.     

群组AHP排序的几何最小二乘方法

本文在文献[1]不完全AHP排序方法的基础上给出群组AHP排序的几何最小二乘方法(GLSM).鉴于不同专家所给判断矩阵质量上的差异,GLSM排序方法对群组AHP进行不同程度的加权处理,并进行群组一致性检验。     

网络创牌之道

“品牌”的引入 ,主要是用来保证商品或服务的质量以及实行差异化的市场战略。塑造知名品牌一直是众多企业家的梦想 ,随着网络的发展 ,很多企业家开始致力于网上创牌活动。一般情况下 ,网上创牌有五种方法 ,包括创建网站网络广告、网上公关、网络调查、网络销售等     

Non‐Parametric Estimation of the Conditional Distribution of the Interjumping Times for Piecewise‐Deterministic Markov Processes

This paper presents a non‐parametric method for estimating the conditional density associated to the jump rate of a piecewise‐deterministic Markov process. In our framework, the estimation needs only one observation of the process within a long time interval. Our method relies on a generalization of Aalen's multiplicative intensity model. We prove the uniform consistency of our estimator, under some reasonable assumptions related to the primitive characteristics of the process. A simulation study illustrates the behaviour of our estimator.