自有住房陷阱与中国住房因城施策

著名的“自有住房陷阱”假说提出：购买房产会降低劳动者的流动性,导致失业率上升和经济活力下降。借鉴国外学者对“自有住房陷阱”的经验研究,考察当下的中国城市发现：大城市自有住房的高资产属性会帮助希望流动的购房者获得更多金融、财富的支持与保障,不会给购房者带来“锁定”效应,同时给城市发展带来正外部效应。反之,在有收缩风险的中小城市,自有住房的低资产属性确实会导致购房者和城市发展陷入“自有住房陷阱”。基于以上结论并结合未来城市化发展趋势,为住房调控因城施策提出相关建议。     

服务业开放、国民收入追赶和跨越中等收入陷阱

从服务业开放视角研究国民收入追赶和跨越中等收入陷阱问题。研究结果表明:仅从服务业规模维度的开放未必对国民收入追赶有明显的促进作用,更应该注重开放质量和结构;新兴市场国家的服务贸易占贸易总额比重增加对国民收入追赶指数有着显著的促进作用;新兴市场国家提升高技术服务进出口比重将有利于提高国民收入追赶指数;服务贸易占GDP比重通过提升全要素生产率(TFP)促进国民收入追赶。因此,我国作为新兴市场国家,既要强调扩大服务业开放对国民收入追赶和跨越中等收入陷阱的积极作用,更要重视优化服务业开放结构和提高服务业开放质量,不断提升服务贸易中高技术服务进出口占比,充分发挥全要素生产率对国民收入追赶的促进作用。     

跨越中等收入陷阱与乡村振兴的互动关系

中等收入陷阱本质是一国经济增长与人口增长几乎同步,即人均国民收入没有实质性增长。根据其成因,可将中等收入陷阱分为动力不足型、需求不足型、人口政策型和封闭型4种类型。跨越中等收入陷阱必须使收入增长速度快于人口增长速度,生产力发展经历着一个从量变到质变的过程。中等收入陷阱与乡村振兴存在互动影响的辩证关系:中等收入陷阱会引发农村劳动力大量转移、农村劳动力受教育动力不足、农村产业发展受阻、城乡收入差距缩小困难等一系列问题,阻碍乡村振兴战略实施;而乡村振兴中人才振兴、产业振兴、生活富裕等战略的实现将极大助力我国跨越中等收入陷阱,乡村振兴的过程也是我们不断迈向高收入国家的过程。因此,在乡村振兴战略实施背景下,应不断增强乡村吸引力,促进劳动力就近就业,激发农村劳动力教育投资动力,降低教育投资成本,缩小城乡收入差距,优化收入分配,从而跨越中等收入陷阱,最终实现乡村振兴的宏伟目标。     

拉美城镇化陷阱及其对贵州城镇化带动战略的借鉴

由于土地分配状况的极端不平等、城镇创造就业能力有限、社会保障制度改革不完善等因素,拉美城镇化过程中出现了收入持续不平等、社会问题突出与经济发展缓慢的城镇化陷阱。贵州已经进入城镇化加速发展和人均GDP进入1000～3000美元的经济社会矛盾多发阶段,应该以拉美国家城镇化为借鉴,以提高城乡居民劳动收入为关键节点,尝试开始覆盖城乡居民社会保障制度试点建设,并加快中小城镇户籍制度改革,实施农村土地使用体制改革,从而实现城镇化带动战略。     

"侦查陷阱"若干问题研究

随着我国法制的不断完善 ,作为侦查手段的“侦查陷阱”暴露出诸多与现代法治理念相冲突的问题———“侦查陷阱”与私法益保护、“侦查陷阱”与非法证据规则、“侦查陷阱”与程序法定原则等 ,我们既不能片面强调保护个人利益而忽视社会整体利益 ,也不能只强调打击犯罪的需要而忽视对犯罪嫌疑人的权利保护 ,而应结合我国国情 ,探寻出一条更符合现代法制理念的侦查程序     

Community-based psychosocial rehabilitation for schizophrenia service users in the north west province of South Africa: A formative study

Psychosocial support is recognized as important for recovery for service users with schizophrenia, in addition to provision of antipsychotic medication. This study aimed to develop a community-based psychosocial rehabilitation programme for service users with schizophrenia to be facilitated by auxiliary social workers, and to investigate acceptability and feasibility of the programme. A task-sharing approach was adopted in which auxiliary social workers were trained to facilitate psychosocial rehabilitation groups. In-depth individual qualitative interviews were conducted with six group members at baseline, midpoint, and endpoint (18 interviews in total). NVivo10 was used to store data and conduct qualitative framework analysis. Participants reported benefits of the programme, including improvements in group members’ self-esteem, social support, illness knowledge, self-care, and contribution to their households. A key barrier to acceptability was the lack of provision of income generating opportunities. Implementation challenges include difficulties in tracing and engaging service users and families, lack of an appropriate venue, and issues with supply of antipsychotic medication. This study has provided evidence for the benefits and acceptability of this contextually adapted programme. Key barriers to implementation can be addressed through the provision of the necessary resources for auxiliary social worker input in the community.     

借助外部介入提升贫困家庭的脱贫决心——基于CHIP数据的实证分析

扶贫实践中发现有一些贫困家庭对脱贫没有决心,完全寄希望于政策支持和别人的帮扶,该现象成为扶贫攻坚中的一个难题。使用2013年中国家庭收入调查(CHIP)数据,集中分析了脱贫决心如何影响农村贫困家庭的行为,进而影响其收入增长。研究结果表明:缺乏脱贫决心是制约农村贫困家庭难以摆脱贫困的重要原因,解决贫困问题需要关注农村贫困家庭的脱贫决心,通过多种手段对这些贫困家庭进行心理沟通,提高贫困家庭对致贫原因及脱贫办法的认知能力,将会使他们产生脱贫信心。     

When the grass is greener: Fertility decisions in a cross-national context

In research and policy discourse, conceptualizations of fertility decision-making often assume that people only consider circumstances within national borders. In an integrated Europe, citizens may know about and compare conditions across countries. Such comparisons may influence the way people think about and respond to childrearing costs. To explore this possibility and its implications, we present evidence from 44 in-depth interviews with Polish parents in the United Kingdom and Poland. Explanations of childbearing decisions involved comparisons of policy packages and living standards across countries. Individuals in Poland used richer European countries as an important reference point, rather than recent conditions in Poland. In contrast, migrants often positively assessed their relatively disadvantaged circumstances by using the Polish setting as a reference. The findings could help explain why, despite substantial policy efforts, fertility has remained at very low levels in poorer European countries, while migrants from those countries often have higher fertility abroad.     

论新型工业化道路与我国动态比较优势的建立

“比较优势陷阱”理论是以批判比较优势理论静态性质为自己立论的。而实际上,现代比较优势理论因承认“要素丰裕度”和“要素密集度”的动态变化而使自己具有了动态性质,所以“,比较优势陷阱”理论依然缺乏充分的理论基础和经验证明。产品要素密集度和国家要素禀赋的动态变化通过推动一国产业结构和技术结构的升级使其赢得动态比较优势,所以,长期推行比较优势战略并不会跌入所谓的“比较优势陷阱”。     

战略性新兴产业将助力我国规避“中等收入陷阱”

"中等收入陷阱"是我国由中等收入迈入高收入国家过程中必须要严肃对待的课题,发展战略性新兴产业可以从经济角度助力我国成功规避这一阶段。为了发展战略性新兴产业,必须做到引进与创新相结合,夯实战略性新兴产业的技术支撑;建立多元的投资体系,加快战略性新兴产业的成长壮大;重视区域合作,促进战略性新兴产业的良性发展;打造产业链,提升战略性新兴产业的经营水平;以规划为手段,加强对战略性新兴产业的组织领导。