Survival in the U.S. petroleum refining industry

Of the 324 petroleum refineries operating in the U.S. in 1982, only 149 were still in the hands of their original owners in 2007. Using duration analysis, this paper explores why refineries change ownership or shut down. Plants are more likely to ‘survive’ with their original owners if they are older or larger, but less likely if the owner is a major integrated firm, or the refinery is a more technologically complex one. This latter result differs from existing research on the issue. This paper also presents a split population model to relax the general assumption of the duration model that all refiners will eventually close down; the empirical results show that the split population model converges on a standard hazard model; the log-logistic version fits best. Finally, a multinomial logit model is estimated to analyze the factors that influence the refinery plant's choices of staying open, closing, or changing ownership. Plant size, age and technology usage have positive impacts on the likelihood that a refinery will stay open, or change ownership (rather than close down).     

Thank God you're here: the coming generation and their role in future‐proofing Australia from the challenges of population ageing

Like much of the industrialised world, Australia's population is ageing, the implications of which are twofold: increasing demand for publicly funded services and a decline in the supply of prime working‐age people. In grappling with the challenges of a diminishing workforce, the Australian Government is currently relying on its migration programs to provide both the much‐needed labour and skills for the resource boom and also to stimulate the economy through population growth. However, there may be another, not yet fully considered solution to the upcoming demographic problem. This paper investigates how the grandchildren of the baby boomers, termed here the Thank God You're Here generation (Gen TGYH), might impact on Australia's predicted workforce shortage. This generation of workers will enter the labour force as the last of the baby boomers reach retirement age, and will not only be bigger in size than preceding generations (Y, X and Baby Boomers), but also potentially be better educated than the retiring generation. This paper will also canvas the opportunities for both Gen TGYH and employers as well as the challenges for policymakers and governments in maximising the opportunity provided by this generation in the Australian economy.     

Community-Based Services and Depression from Person-Environment Fit Perspective: Focusing on Functional Impairments and Living Alone

ABSTRACT

Guided by the Person-Environment Fit perspective, we investigated the extent to which personal and environmental factors influence depression among community-dwelling adults. The data came from the special section about community-based service utilization in the 2012 Health and Retirement Study (N=1,710). Although community-based service was not significantly associated with depression after controlling for covariates, respondents with functional limitations and living alone were less likely to be depressed when using community-based services. This study demonstrates the different associations between community-based services and depression depending on personal needs. It discusses the importance of community-based services for aging-in-place policy, particularly among vulnerable populations.     

新生代农民工体面劳动问题研究

目前，新生代农民工仍然在就业领域内面临着一系列的歧视，对于发达的珠三角和长三角地区而言，积极推进体面劳动，让新生代农民工不仅有一份工作，而且有一份满意的工作，应当是当前和未来相当长时期内改善民生的重心所在，为此必须要在思想观念和具体的体制机制等方面进行相应的调整。     

城市高密度人口分布下的社区建设——以广州荔湾区为例

以广州荔湾区“六普”资料为根据，就人口高密度分布与社区建设的关系进行梳理与探讨。荔湾区“六普”数据显示，城区人口密度过高，成为影响社区生活的主要因素，给居民生命安全、公共生活质量与日常生活便利性带来负面效应。科学化与人性化人口密度干预是治理高密度人口问题的理性策略，如“跳出”社区视野，在城市“一盘棋”中均衡人口布局，在社区建设中，通过社区更新改造，增强人口承载能力，通过建构便利舒适人居环境，提升社区生活质量。     

基于分层线性模型的流动人口社会融合影响因素研究

根据2012年全国流动人口动态监测结果和反映31个省市基本公共服务均等化的指标数据，建立分层线性模型从流动人口个体和省级层面考察影响流动人口社会融合的影响因素和作用程度的大小。研究发现，流动人口的社会融合不仅与个人因素有关，而且还受地区基本公共服务差异化的影响。个体层面从户口性质、就业状况、医疗保险、自我融入意愿、本地人接受程度、收入情况与住房条件解释流动人口社会融合差异的63?12％；省级层面从基础教育、医疗卫生、公共就业及基本社会保障解释流动人口社会融合的差异为36?83％。最后从政府、公民社会参与角度出发，提出促进流动人口社会融合的措施和建议。     

基于同城化视角的人口空间动态与区域经济发展耦合关联机理研究

人口空间动态与区域经济发展的耦合关系是同城化区域间共同面对的重要课题。本文在解构人口空间动态维度主体的基础上,将人口空间动态的诉求机制与动因机理架构于更低交易费用的利益诉求之上,解析人口空间动态的模式选择,深入探讨人口空间动态与区域经济发展的耦合关联性。在此基础上,提出引导人口流动与合理分布的策略。研究成果将有助于更好地理解同城化态势下人口空间演变的动因机理,为同城区域的经济发展、城市规划、文化交融等方面的科学设计提供重要参考。     

教育券:解决城市流动儿童入学问题的良方还是歧途?

通过发行"教育券"来解决流动儿童的入学问题是当前一种较流行的主张。但这一主张只是从表面上使中央政府、地方政府和流动人口家庭之间达成了一定程度的妥协,能够在一定程度上缓解流动儿童的入学难题,却无法触及到问题的根源,无法从根本上解决流动儿童的义务教育问题。其根源在于对弗里德曼教育券理论的一种错误理解和运用。在美国,教育券要解决的是促使不同类型的学校尤其是私立学校通过竞争得到发展的问题,而不是要解决谁应该为学生的义务教育买单的问题。只有将义务教育经费划拨从"以县为主"上升为"以省为主",才有望从根本上解决流动儿童接受义务教育的经费问题。     

Mobilisation strategies of individual and institutional actors in Brussels’ artistic and cultural scenes

Though sharing a common territory, the cultural spaces of Brussels are divided according to a complex structure where Francophone and Flemish Communities play a dominant role. These two language-based communities set separate cultural policies and programming for their residents in Brussels. Within this fragmented structure, local socio-cultural actors have mobilised promoting cross-Community collaboration towards a shared vision for the Brussels-Capital Region (ex. Cultural Plan for Brussels). Further, individual artists themselves have developed strategies to participate in Community-defined cultural programming and to gain recognition for their talent as local (Bruxellois) artists regardless of their ethnic, linguistic or migrant background. This article explores how socio-cultural actors and artists have mobilised to reframe ‘culture’ in Brussels, and to gain access to cultural venues particularly in the case of migrant and migrant-origin artists whose engagement and recognition in Brussels’ cultural scenes have been little studied.     

广州市随迁生义务教育政策研究

广州市没有对随迁生问题进行深入研究,导致在贯彻"两个为主"政策上困难重重。解决上述问题的建议主要包括:明确义务教育公共产品属性、设置随迁生就读的合理门槛、修正"两个为主"政策等。