国民核算简约帐户系统设计研究

国民经济核算账户系统在为专业核算研究人员提供研究框架和数据的同时 ,应生成一套精当、简明、适用的系统 ,简约概括一国经济活动的基本状况 ,以方便各个层次对象使用。     

LOG-PERIODOGRAM ESTIMATION OF LONG MEMORY VOLATILITY DEPENDENCIES WITH CONDITIONALLY HEAVY TAILED RETURNS

Many recent papers have used semiparametric methods, especially the log-periodogram regression, to detect and estimate long memory in the volatility of asset returns. In these papers, the volatility is proxied by measures such as squared, log-squared, and absolute returns. While the evidence for the existence of long memory is strong using any of these measures, the actual long memory parameter estimates can be sensitive to which measure is used. In Monte-Carlo simulations, I find that if the data is conditionally leptokurtic, the log-periodogram regression estimator using squared returns has a large downward bias, which is avoided by using other volatility measures. In United States stock return data, I find that squared returns give much lower estimates of the long memory parameter than the alternative volatility measures, which is consistent with the simulation results. I conclude that researchers should avoid using the squared returns in the semiparametric estimation of long memory volatility dependencies.     

论鲁迅对唐代小说研究的贡献

本文分析了鲁迅关于唐代小说的历史地位、唐代小说的题材内容和艺术特色、唐代小说对后世创作的影响等几方面的真知灼见,总结了鲁迅对唐人小说研究的杰出贡献,从中更深地体会鲁迅科学严谨的治学精神和进步的文　　艺思想。     

实施分层次教学提高学生英语水平

通过对职业技术学院学生现状的分析 ,以整体语言教学的理论为依据 ,进行了分层次教学的尝试并作了效果调查 ,提出了分层次教学是提高学生英语水平的有效途径。同时也指出 ,要全面实施分层次教学 ,还受到多种条件的制约。首先 ,需要教师有足够的精力、有良好的心理素质 ;其次 ,还需要有良好的管理体制来保证这种方法的实施     

翻译研究与翻译文化观

如果以国外近半个世纪来翻译研究的进展为背景,回顾国内近３０年翻译研究的历程,可以发现重技轻道、重语言轻文化和重微观轻宏观等值得反思的问题以及翻译语言学途径的不足与局限。因此,在翻译研究中应加强翻译的文化意识,进一步确立文化观,进而在翻译文化观的指导下,在多元文化的语境下深化我们的翻译研究。     

立足高起点发展新方向培养应用型复合型人才——对我院法学专业教学的认识及建议

我院法学专业培养目标是为社会培养应用型、复合型人才 ,针对实际情况 ,作者提出应改革教学内容 ,优化课程体系 ;改革教学方法 ,完善教学手段 ;提高教师业务水平 ,加强学术梯队建设等建议。     

图学思想与图学教育研究

从图学哲学、图学方法论、图学知识系统结构和图学发展史的角度出发 ,对图学思想与图学教育做了进一步的研究 ,讨论了图学思想的基本构成要素 :基元和整体、转化与整合、扩张与因袭 ,阐述了图学思想与图学教育两者之间的本质联系。     

Type I error rates from likelihood‐based repeated measures analyses of incomplete longitudinal data

The last observation carried forward (LOCF) approach is commonly utilized to handle missing values in the primary analysis of clinical trials. However, recent evidence suggests that likelihood‐based analyses developed under the missing at random (MAR) framework are sensible alternatives. The objective of this study was to assess the Type I error rates from a likelihood‐based MAR approach – mixed‐model repeated measures (MMRM) – compared with LOCF when estimating treatment contrasts for mean change from baseline to endpoint (Δ). Data emulating neuropsychiatric clinical trials were simulated in a 4 × 4 factorial arrangement of scenarios, using four patterns of mean changes over time and four strategies for deleting data to generate subject dropout via an MAR mechanism. In data with no dropout, estimates of Δ and SE_Δ from MMRM and LOCF were identical. In data with dropout, the Type I error rates (averaged across all scenarios) for MMRM and LOCF were 5.49% and 16.76%, respectively. In 11 of the 16 scenarios, the Type I error rate from MMRM was at least 1.00% closer to the expected rate of 5.00% than the corresponding rate from LOCF. In no scenario did LOCF yield a Type I error rate that was at least 1.00% closer to the expected rate than the corresponding rate from MMRM. The average estimate of SE_Δ from MMRM was greater in data with dropout than in complete data, whereas the average estimate of SE_Δ from LOCF was smaller in data with dropout than in complete data, suggesting that standard errors from MMRM better reflected the uncertainty in the data. The results from this investigation support those from previous studies, which found that MMRM provided reasonable control of Type I error even in the presence of MNAR missingness. No universally best approach to analysis of longitudinal data exists. However, likelihood‐based MAR approaches have been shown to perform well in a variety of situations and are a sensible alternative to the LOCF approach. MNAR methods can be used within a sensitivity analysis framework to test the potential presence and impact of MNAR data, thereby assessing robustness of results from an MAR method. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

黑龙江（汉族）民歌衍变过程探析——对黑龙江、河北（汉族）民歌的比较

黑龙江汉族民歌的衍变历经了数百年的岁月沧桑，它与民族迁徙、人口变迁以及文化传统等存在着极为密切的联系。通过对黑龙江民歌与河北、山东、河南、山西民歌进行比较，表明黑龙江民歌与河北民歌之间存在着较近的亲缘关系。因此，文章试图在对较有代表性的几首黑龙江与河北民歌比较研究的基础上进一步探究黑龙江民歌衍变的影响因素。     

中国农村妇女问题研究综述

随着党中央对三农问题的重视,中国农村妇女问题逐渐凸现出来。对近二十年的中国农村妇女研究重新进行阶段划分,并对中国农村妇女研究所涉及的性别与劳动就业分工,农业女性化问题,农村妇女家庭地位及其变化,农村妇女科学文化素质及培训,农村女性劳动力流动及影响因素,农村妇女与贫困,农村妇女与人口再生产,农村妇女与资源、环境和持续发展,农村妇女参政议政等问题,进行多角度的分析说明,从中总结出经验和不足。农村妇女发展要联系农村实际,要针对多方面因素考虑农村妇女发展与农村诸要素之间的关系。农村妇女研究要采取定量与定性相结合的分析方法,从不同地域、不同环境入手分析当地农村妇女的实际情况,以便在今后的研究中得以借鉴。