Human Salmonellosis: Estimation of Dose-Illness from Outbreak Data

The quantification of the relationship between the amount of microbial organisms ingested and a specific outcome such as infection, illness, or mortality is a key aspect of quantitative risk assessment. A main problem in determining such dose-response models is the availability of appropriate data. Human feeding trials have been criticized because only young healthy volunteers are selected to participate and low doses, as often occurring in real life, are typically not considered. Epidemiological outbreak data are considered to be more valuable, but are more subject to data uncertainty. In this article, we model the dose-illness relationship based on data of 20 Salmonella outbreaks, as discussed by the World Health Organization. In particular, we model the dose-illness relationship using generalized linear mixed models and fractional polynomials of dose. The fractional polynomial models are modified to satisfy the properties of different types of dose-illness models as proposed by Teunis et al . Within these models, differences in host susceptibility (susceptible versus normal population) are modeled as fixed effects whereas differences in serovar type and food matrix are modeled as random effects. In addition, two bootstrap procedures are presented. A first procedure accounts for stochastic variability whereas a second procedure accounts for both stochastic variability and data uncertainty. The analyses indicate that the susceptible population has a higher probability of illness at low dose levels when the combination pathogen-food matrix is extremely virulent and at high dose levels when the combination is less virulent. Furthermore, the analyses suggest that immunity exists in the normal population but not in the susceptible population.     

多媒体热的冷思考

多媒体教学是近年来出现的新事物,他以其信息量大、画面直现、教学效率高等优点给高校教学带来了巨大变化。但也存在着互动性差、课件质量不高等弊端。认为应通过提高多媒体课的准入门槛、将多媒体技术与传统教学手段相结合、加强对多媒体课程质量和运行的检查等措施来解决。     

ADDITIVE MODELS WITH PREDICTORS SUBJECT TO MEASUREMENT ERROR

This paper develops a likelihood‐based method for fitting additive models in the presence of measurement error. It formulates the additive model using the linear mixed model representation of penalized splines. In the presence of a structural measurement error model, the resulting likelihood involves intractable integrals, and a Monte Carlo expectation maximization strategy is developed for obtaining estimates. The method's performance is illustrated with a simulation study.     

《读书人是幸福人》说课设计

说课,是检验教师教学基本功的手段之一,它不同于一般的发言稿和课堂教学,它要求说者比较系统地介绍自己的教学设计及其理论依据(包括大纲依据、课程标准依据、教学法依据、教育学和心理学依据等),而不是宣讲教案,也不是浓缩课堂。它的核心在于说理,在于说清为什么要这样教,用什么理论来支持教学,说课的重点在于教学重点和教学难点的突破上。说案不同于教案。     

从知识分类的角度构建新的课堂教学结构

自凯洛夫的五步课堂教学结构产生以来,关于教学结构的探讨一直没有间断。但是,传统的教学结构常常囿于学时与教学内容之间的一一对应关系,而且没有明确的知识分类的观念,忽略了学习和教学过程的多样性。针对此种现象,应根据现代认知心理学中知识分类的思想,构建新的课堂教学结构。     

African American family life in societal context: Crisis and hope

Since 1965 hundreds of articles and books have been published about African American families. Nevertheless, our understanding of these families continues to be limited. There is a tendency to gloss over important within-group differences; thus, monolithic, stereotypic and inaccurance portrayals of Black family life are common. This paper sets aside debates of Black family pathology or viability, focusing instead on these families' essential character. The paper seeks to understand Black families on their own terms, locating them in relevant social, historical, political and cultural contexts. Key empirical patterns and trends reveal dramatic changes in Black family geographic location, headship, quality of life and socioeconomic status since 1950.A complex picture is revealed. There has been gradual but steady overall improvement alongside persistent, extreme racial disparties and pronounced class disparities among Black families. The proposed Black Family Socio-Ecological Context model specifies and connects institutional, interpersonal, environmental, temporal and cultural facts that shape the essential character of Black family life in such a way as to produce characteristics simultaneously shared and idiosyncratic. The model also provides an organized, systematic accounting of research and public policy issues relevant to the study of African American families.An early version co-authored with Richard A. English was presented during the National Council on Family Relations Meetings in Portland, Oregon, October 1980.     

引导大学生进行英语成功阅读的方法探索

为落实教育部颁布的《高校英语专业教学大纲》的要求,提高英语语言学习性阅读或语言应用性阅读的能力,就必须有效地引导学生成功阅读。要进行成功阅读,就要打好基础,坚持循序渐进、量的原则,要讲究阅读的方法;要在教学中特别注意研究语义单位关系,借以提高阅读的效率。     

四级阅读测试题型与对策

分析了最近 1 3年 2 2套四级考试阅读理解部分全部问题 ,并以文字、图表数据说明五类题型的比例及测试特点。同时结合《大学英语教学大纲》,分析了师生在平常教与学的过程中可采取的对策。     

中产阶层的法律行为方式与和谐社会构建

和谐社会是建立在社会主义市场经济经济基础之上,以社会秩序的和谐稳定为整体目标,以社会利益关系的合理配置、人际利益关系协调整合为核心内容,以民主法治、公平正义和平等自由为价值依归的社会秩序状态。和谐社会在形式方面表现为人与人之间、人与自然之间关系的稳定性、进程的连续性、主体行为的规范性、财产和心理的安全性等。其实质方面意味着社会利益的公平合理配置和整合,社会利益冲突按照民主法治的原则和机制得以公平合理的解决,进而实现多元社会利益动态综合平衡。中产阶层的法律行为方式具有理性化、讲平等、重诚信、守法度等特点,它对于构建和谐社会、缓和与消解社会矛盾和冲突具有重要社会功能。     

论哈拉普的马克思主义美学理论

文章第一次全面介绍了美国马克思主义美学家哈拉普的美学理论和艺术理论观,通过他对艺术与生产方式、艺术与阶级、大众媒介与审美趣味等问题的分析,可以对现代中国的马克思主义美学和文艺学的研究有所启发。