演化经济学的时间观

主流经济学长期沿用的时间观是牛顿范式的机械时间观。它分离了时间、事件和主体之间的内在关系,使经济学在易于处理研究对象的同时也丧失了对经济过程的解释力。与之不同,演化经济学的时间观强调行为主体、事件和时间的不可分割性。描述经济现象的时间范畴,不能脱离主体的创生能力和适应性。     

Nonparametric Estimation of Duration Dependence in Militarized Interstate Disputes

A militarized interstate dispute (MID) involves military conflict between states with diplomatic ties and exists because two or more states have failed to resolve their differences through diplomatic channels. Jones et al. (1996) characterize an MID as the threat, display or use of military force short of war. They analyze over 2000 disputes spanning two centuries across the globe and conclude that disputes tend to be persistent once established. In this paper, I find that the passage of time can be a favorable factor in dispute resolution, and thus historical mechanisms for dispute resolution favor ending, not extending, militarized disputes. I emphasize the use of non-parametric procedures first to estimate the hazard function and then to estimate the benefits of negotiated settlements.     

声频定向扬声器DSB算法的谐波失真

依据一种新型扬声器——声频定向扬声器的基本工作原理,从理论上给出了DSB算法中调制系数对输出信号谐波失真影响的详细推导过程;并指出调制系数越小,失真度越小,但带来的负面效应是小的调制系数将使输出的信号功率相应变小。在此基础上,指出DSB算法本身存在一个12dB/倍频程的频率响应倾斜,在设计声频定向扬声器时必须采用算法预处理或换能器频响设计的方法对其进行补偿,以获得较好的声音保真效果。     

带时间窗装卸货问题的改进多策略分组编码遗传算法

通过研究求解PDPTW的分组编码遗传算法（GGA）及多策略分组编码遗传算法（MSGGA），改进了GGA中的交叉算子及MSGGA中的路径调整策略，提出了易位组合交叉算子、单车路径重排策略及需求对换策略。求解了400个客户点的标准算例集，其中4个算例lc2_4_3、lrc1_4_1、lrc2_4_2和lrc2_4_3的行驶总路程有所减少。     

康德时间理论中虚无主义的问题——雅各比和海德格尔的诊断

雅各比在其康德批判中洞见到了整个现代哲学的虚无主义倾向。通过对康德“先验对象”理论和时间性的想象力学说的考察，这种倾向可以被明白地洞见到。“先验对象”被看成是思维构造出来的意识相关项，而时间性想象力就是思维的自构造和自成形活动。雅各比认为，这是混淆了构造性时间和发生性时间的结果，但费希特却在他的启发下，力图深化康德的道路。双方从而产生了多次论争，且德国古典哲学的进程受此影响极深。而这条道路的现代继承者海德格尔，同样也面对雅各比式的质疑。     

Variable selection for first‐order Poisson integer‐valued autoregressive model with covariables

In recent years, modelling count data has become one of the most important and popular topics in time‐series analysis. At the same time, variable selection methods have become widely used in many fields as an effective statistical modelling tool. In this paper, we consider using a variable selection method to solve a modelling problem regarding the first‐order Poisson integer‐valued autoregressive (PINAR(1)) model with covariables. The PINAR(1) model with covariables is widely used in many areas because of its practicality. When using this model to deal with practical problems, multiple covariables are added to the model because it is impossible to know in advance which covariables will affect the results. But the inclusion of some insignificant covariables is almost impossible to avoid. Unfortunately, the usual estimation method is not adequate for the task of deleting the insignificant covariables that cause statistical inferences to become biased. To overcome this defect, we propose a penalised conditional least squares (PCLS) method, which can consistently select the true model. The PCLS estimator is also provided and its asymptotic properties are established. Simulation studies demonstrate that the PCLS method is effective for estimation and variable selection. One practical example is also presented to illustrate the practicability of the PCLS method.     

西方“空间批判”论著出版情况及其对我国的学术影响

自20世纪末以来，随着西方“空间批判”论著在我国的陆续出版，国内在这一领域的研究日益增多，且向多个学科扩散。通过对中国国家图书馆藏书和当当网上书店在售图书进行数据检索分析，分时段、分学科地探究了这个超过二十年的出版过程的具体状况；同时对照国外论著在我国出版的情况，以同样的数据检索方法对近二十年来我国学者在这一领域的研究成果进行分析，揭示了相关领域译作出版对国内研究的重要影响，从而得出西方“空间批判”论著的出版对我国学界相关研究具有重要的促进作用这一结论。     

Evaluation of a drug and alcohol safety education program in aviation using interrupted time series and the Kirkpatrick framework

Compliance with drug and alcohol regulations are required by 14 CFR Part 120/ and 49 CFR Part 40. These regulations affect approximately 7200 aviation-related companies and their associated services. Consequences for noncompliance can include loss of revenue from imposition of civil penalties, suspension, or revocation of the company’s certificate to conduct business. Front End Analysis (FEA) was conducted to determine specific performance problems and provide five tailored educational interventions to address them. Program evaluation was conducted using Interrupted Time Series (ITS) modeling. Results showed significant (p < .05) decreases in nonconformities across all five models with small to moderate effect sizes. Based on the relative effects, values for reductions in civil penalty costs between 16% and 47%, were predicted. Actual sanction reductions from the pre-to-post-intervention periods were confirmed to be 24.21%. The study supported the efficacy of the ITS approach for implementation of level four Kirkpatrick evaluation.     

A principles-focused evaluation of community mental health short-term case management

Principles-focused evaluations allow evaluators to appraise each principle that guides an organization or program. This study completed a principles-focused evaluation of a new community mental health intervention called Short Term Case Management (STCM) in Toronto, Canada. STCM is a time limited intervention for clients to address unmet needs and personalized goals over 3 months. Findings showcase that a principles-focused evaluation, assessing whether program principles are guiding, useful, inspiring, developmental and/or evaluable (GUIDE), is a practical formative evaluation approach. Specifically, offering an understanding of a novel intervention, including its key components of assessment and planning, support plan implementation and evaluation and care transitions. Findings also highlight that STCM may work best for those clients ready to participate in achieving their own goals. Future research should explore how best to apply the GUIDE framework to complex interventions, including multiple principles, to increase evaluation feasibility and focus.     

论瑞典学派经济分析中时间维度处理方法

受到奥地利学派的影响,瑞典学派试图将时间维度及货币因素纳入瓦尔拉斯的一般均衡理论,并为此创造出了一系列处理时间维度的方法。系统分析这些方法植根于以均衡分析为中心的方法论,阐述对于推进经济学由静态向动态的发展做出的卓越贡献,从而指导中国经济分析方法论研究。