基于两阶段优化算法的神经网络预测模型

采用基于两阶段优化算法(multi-stage optimization approach,MSOA)的GA人工神经网络,将训练集分为两部分,在前一训练集训练后获得的网络基础上使用后一训练集进行进一步的训练获得更为优化的网络结构.针对复杂系统建模输入节点难以确定的问题,提出将其与自组织数据挖掘算法相结合,利用GMDH算法获得神经网络的初始化节点,使用训练好的神经网络模型进行预测.将由此建立的预测模型应用于粮食价格的预测,并进一步探讨了MSOA算法的收敛性问题.结果表明基于GMDH和MSOA的神经网络组合预测模型能较大提高神经网络的全局收敛能力和收敛速度,提高预测精度.     

新生代农民工心理健康问题及解决途径

新生代农民工存在着成才问题、成长问题、挫折问题、心理疾病、心身疾病、精神病等六个层次的心理问题,其具体表现主要为心理困惑、身份困惑、人际关系紧张、自卑心理严重等.为此,应当从加强心理健康知识宣传、加强心理档案管理、加强心理疏导、建立心理极端事件应急机制等四个方面解决新生代农民工心理健康管理问题.     

语块教学的主要心理认知理据与应用

本文探讨语块教学对提高语块意识和促进语篇生成技能的有效性,以及在外语课堂教学语境中语块教学应注意的问题,以期对课堂语言教学有所裨益。     

Approach and Positive Affect in Toddlerhood Predict Early Childhood Behavior Problems

The aim of the study was to examine the moderating role of positive affect on the relation between approach behaviors and adjustment outcomes. One hundred eleven toddlers participated in a laboratory assessment of approach and positive affect at 24 months. Behavior problems were reported by a parent in the fall of the child's kindergarten year. Results supported our hypotheses that children who displayed high approach and high positive affect in both non‐threat and low‐threat contexts were rated as higher in externalizing behavior problems. On the other hand, for children showing low positive affect, increases in approach in a moderate‐threat context lowered the risk of developing internalizing behavior problems. Implications for these findings are discussed, including methodological considerations of differences among eliciting contexts and advantages of separating positive affect and approach.     

A Security Model and Legal Guarantee for Chinese Maritime Shipping: As Exemplified in the Response to Piracy along the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road

The Belt and Road Initiative is an important decision for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. Maritime security has a significant place in this process. In recent years, there have been frequent violent terrorist incidents at sea, including piracy, armed hijackings and terrorist attacks, posing a dire threat to both international and Chinese maritime transport interests and seriously challenging the fulfillment of the maritime part of the “Belt and Road Initiative.” Five direct measures can be taken to protect ocean shipping from violence at sea. One example is the defensive measures taken against the Somali pirates. The employment of armed guards from professional security companies on board ship is an effective model for guaranteeing maritime security; it not only meets the standards of international law, but is also legally permitted in many developed countries and regions, and is thus strategically significant for overall Chinese maritime security. In the Chinese context, this model carries its own legal risks. We should embrace a new approach to national security law, strengthen legal guarantees and make concerted efforts to provide warship (military aircraft) escorts to jointly build an optimum model of Chinese maritime security in order to ensure the realization of core Chinese maritime interests.     

Evaluating social exclusion interventions in university-community partnerships

Most university-community partnerships (UCPs) involve elements of community-level social exclusion interventions. As such, they face substantial challenges in management and evaluation. This paper highlights the central challenges associated with evaluation of UCP and other social exclusion interventions at the community level, and suggests methods to overcome them. The main body of the paper presents a case study based on a four-year action research involving evaluation of a social exclusion intervention initiated and implemented by a UCP in Israel. The case study highlights the challenges faced by the evaluation team, the solutions provided, and the contribution of the evaluation to improvement and accountability.     

A Narrative Approach to Pregnancy‐related Discrimination and Leader–follower Relationships

This study sheds light on women's perceptions of pregnancy‐related discrimination committed by the discriminated woman's immediate leader. The purpose is to show how women describe this perception during pregnancy and after their return to working life after maternity leave. Further, the study explores the ways in which the quality of the leader–follower relationship is revealed during the narration process. The research draws on five individual stories, collected in two rounds of interviews. Representations of several kinds of discriminatory practices can be found in the narratives and reveal that even being a partner in a good‐quality leader–follower relationship does not necessarily protect a woman from pregnancy‐related discrimination. However, women involved in a high‐quality leader–follower relationship described their perceptions in a more positive manner than those in a low‐quality relationship. The contribution of the article to the literature is twofold: firstly, the results challenge the traditional view that high‐quality leader–member exchange relationships lead to positive outcomes. Secondly, examining the different ways in which people describe their perceptions of discrimination deepens our understanding of the equality problems that working women face.     

A martingale-based test for independence of time to failure and cause of failure for competing risks models

In this article, we introduce a class of tests, using a martingale approach, for testing independence of failure time and cause of failure for competing risks data. Asymptotic distribution of the proposed test statistic is derived. The procedure is illustrated with a real-life data. A simulation study is carried out to assess the level and power of the test.     

“Either Side of Delphy Bridge”: A deep mapping project evoking and engaging the lives of older adults in rural North Cornwall

This article reports on work to date by an arts practice-led research team exploring older adults’ conceptions of, and connectivity with, the physical, social and cultural landscapes in which they locate themselves. The team is based at the Department of Art and Design, University of the West of England (UWE) and has conducted fieldwork, interviews and small-scale interactions in an area of rural North Cornwall with a view to “deep mapping” older adults’ “lived landscapes” using a variety of practical methods derived from creative arts practices, critical reflection on deep mapping, ethnographic approaches, and referencing a range of theoretical positions. The project forms part of a work package within “Grey and Pleasant Land? An interdisciplinary exploration of the connectivity of older people in rural civic society” (abbreviated below as GaPL), funded by the UK Cross-Research Council ‘New Dynamics of Ageing’ Programme. In what follows we will describe and critically discuss the fieldwork undertaken and the various ways in which the performative interactions and the creative multimedia evocations that draw on the team’s interactions with older people might extend the growing dialogue between deep mapping, visual and other innovative ethnographies, and critical gerontology.     

改变道德习俗:生活德育的最佳切入路径

习俗有道德习俗与非道德习俗之分。道德习俗对人德性生成有巨大影响。这样,生活德育的最佳切入路径在改变道德习俗,其中,学校生活德育的最佳切入路径是改变学校的道德习俗;家庭和社会生活德育的最佳切入路径是改变本国、本地区的道德习俗。