Do individuals successfully cover up their lies? Evidence from a compliance experiment

We study how well individuals in a face-to-face situation can delude others. We exploit data from a laboratory experiment in which participants were asked to assess video-taped statements as being rather truthful or untruthful. The statements are face-to-face tax declarations. The video clips feature each subject twice making the same declaration: One time the subject is reporting honestly, and the other time willingly dishonestly. This allows us to investigate within-subject differences in perceived truthfulness. Our study provides several novel insights. We find that individuals can cover up their lies successfully. On average, a subject is perceived as more truthful if she deceives than if she reports honestly. In particular, individuals with a genuine dishonest appearance manage to increase their perceived truthfulness by up to 14 percent when lying. Moreover, our results show that a subject appears less truthful if she had previously been caught lying. Being detected as a liar previously appears to impair self-confidence and to thereby lower an individual’s ability to deceive.     

Investment communities: Behavioral attitudes and economic dynamics

Using a real-world data set encompassing the daily portfolio holdings and exposures of complex investment funds, we derive a set of quantitative attributes to capture essential behavioral features of fund managers. We find the existence and stability of three investment attitudes, namely the conservative, the reactive, and the pro-active profiles, defining communities that respond differently when facing external shocks. The conservative community has behavioral similarities that tend to decrease due to external shocks, the reactive community members greatly increase their activity level especially during turmoil phases, while delegated investors in the pro-active community are more resilient to turbulence and counterbalance the impact of the events by adjusting their portfolio exposures in advance. We show that exogenous shocks only temporarily perturb the behavioral traits of the communities which then go back to their original states once the distress is embedded.     

Resource Distribution in Multiple Attacks with Imperfect Detection of the Attack Outcome

This article extends the previous research of consecutive attacks strategy by assuming that an attacker observes the outcome of each attack imperfectly. With given probabilities it may wrongly identify a destroyed target as undestroyed, and wrongly identify an undestroyed target as destroyed. The outcome of each attack is determined by a contest success function that depends on the amount of resources allocated by the defender and the attacker to each attack. The article suggests a probabilistic model of the multiple attacks and analyzes how the target destruction probability and the attacker's relative resource expenditure are impacted by the two probabilities of incorrect observation, the attacker's and defender's resource ratio, the contest intensity, the number of attacks, and the resource distribution across attacks. We analyze how the attacker chooses the number of attacks, the attack stopping rule, and the optimal resource distribution across attacks to maximize its utility.     

Mean shift and influence measures in linear measurement error models with stochastic linear restrictions

We present influence diagnostics for linear measurement error models with stochastic linear restrictions using the corrected likelihood of Nakamura in 1990. The case deletion and mean shift outlier models are developed to identify outlying and influential observations. We derive a corrected score test statistic for outlier detection based on mean shift outlier models. The analogs of Cook's distance and likelihood distance are proposed to determine influential observations based on case deletion models. A parametric bootstrap procedure is used to obtain empirical distributions of the test statistics and a simulation study has been used to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimators based on the mean squares error criterion and the score test statistic. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the theoretical results.     

Composite Estimation for Single‐Index Models with Responses Subject to Detection Limits

We propose a semiparametric estimator for single‐index models with censored responses due to detection limits. In the presence of left censoring, the mean function cannot be identified without any parametric distributional assumptions, but the quantile function is still identifiable at upper quantile levels. To avoid parametric distributional assumption, we propose to fit censored quantile regression and combine information across quantile levels to estimate the unknown smooth link function and the index parameter. Under some regularity conditions, we show that the estimated link function achieves the non‐parametric optimal convergence rate, and the estimated index parameter is asymptotically normal. The simulation study shows that the proposed estimator is competitive with the omniscient least squares estimator based on the latent uncensored responses for data with normal errors but much more efficient for heavy‐tailed data under light and moderate censoring. The practical value of the proposed method is demonstrated through the analysis of a human immunodeficiency virus antibody data set.     

基于模糊理论的城市快速路交通状态检测算法

通过分析流量、速度、占有率与城市快速路交通状态的关系,提出了一种基于模糊理论的城市快速路交通状态检测算法。通过在深圳市某快速路上的实际验证表明,该算法在能保证一定的检测率情况下,具有较低的误报率和较少的检测时间,表明此方法在实际应用中是切实可行的。     

神奇母题的历史根源

关于民间口头流传的神奇幻想故事同原始文化、传统宗教信仰之间的关联 ,素为中外学人所关注。本文作为“中国民间故事类型与传承研究”这个重大课题的一个侧面 ,对此做出了较有新意的阐释     

董作宾:乡土研究的先驱

20世纪中国民间文艺学史上存在过多种流派 ,如歌谣研究会、文学人类学派、社会—民族学派、“古史辨”派神话学、民俗学派、俗文学学派、延安学派等。作为第一个流派的歌谣研究会 ,是一个颇松散的团体和流派 ,其中持乡土研究观点的学者 ,如顾颉刚、常惠、董作宾、台静农、钟敬文、罗香林、白启明、刘经等 ,在歌谣研究会流派中占主流地位。本文以董作宾的《看见她》母题研究及其他研究为个例 ,阐明乡土研究思潮是 2 0世纪中国现代民间文艺学的最早的一种研究思潮 ,董作宾 (以及顾颉刚等 )在实践和理论上的成就 ,奠定了中国民间文艺学作为一个独立的人文学科的最初的理论基础。本文从 (1)“母题”的引入和比较研究的实践 ,(2 )家乡歌谣学应时而生 ,(3)考订与考订者 ,(4)综合研究模式的尝试四个方面 ,对董作宾的民间文艺学思想遗产和历史地位作历史的考察。     

中国当代“动物叙事”神话原型母题及其模式研究

中华民族对待动物的古老原始神话思维对当下文学创作具有潜在影响,在与现代思维理念相交融、碰撞之后发生现代转型,并且这种转型以一种相对固定的母题模式呈现在“动物叙事”文本表达中。原始动物神话的派生形态：动物自然神话与动物图腾神话的溯源研究,导引出动物原型母题中动物作为自然象征、动物作为人的本质性象征两大核心叙事维度,进而深入到对其神话原型母题模式与类型衍生的探讨。     

基于共振解调模拟电路的滚动轴承早期故障检测性能研究

共振解调模拟电路是滚动轴承故障诊断中最常用的技术之一,但是其故障检测性能的定量评价研究尚未见报导。因此,分别以正弦调制和脉冲调制所构造的故障轴承振动加速度信号为电路输入,定量分析了共振解调电路在不同信噪比条件下的故障检测性能,并研究了电路中的关键设计参数——[WTBX]带通滤波器品质因数Q[WT]的调制规律,为共振解调模拟电路在轴承早期故障检测的实际工程应用提供了可靠的科学依据。