The performance of alternative estimators for the probit model with first-order serial correlation 1

The purpose of the paper is to evaluate the relative performance of two generalized conditional moment (GCM) estimators in terms of their mean squared errors, for the Probit model with first-order serial correlation. The first estimator is a linearized one-step estimator described by Poirier and Ruud (1988). The second one is defined in the present paper. Monte Car10 experiments suggest that the GCM estimators outperform the ordinary Probit estimator. The two GCM estimators do almost equally well, except that the second one may be easier to calculate, especially in large samples.     

Smooth tail-index estimation

The two parametric distribution functions appearing in the extreme-value theory – the generalized extreme-value distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution – have log-concave densities if the extreme-value index γ∈[?1, 0]. Replacing the order statistics in tail-index estimators by their corresponding quantiles from the distribution function that is based on the estimated log-concave density ? f _n leads to novel smooth quantile and tail-index estimators. These new estimators aim at estimating the tail index especially in small samples. Acting as a smoother of the empirical distribution function, the log-concave distribution function estimator reduces estimation variability to a much greater extent than it introduces bias. As a consequence, Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that the smoothed version of the estimators are well superior to their non-smoothed counterparts, in terms of mean-squared error.     

商业信用风险管理绩效影响因素的实证分析

近年来,Jianmin Jia等学者对"我国信用风险管理现状"及其相关问题进行研究,取得一定的研究成果,但相应研究中存在着"简单使用线性回归,未能消除变量间的相互影响"等局限。基于对已有相关研究成果的评析,并运用因子分析和Pearson相关分析方法,对我国商业信用风险管理绩效的影响因素进行实证研究。研究表明:商业信用风险管理绩效的关键影响因素为"信用管理职能设置"、"客户资信评估"和"信用政策制定",我国企业应从"完善信用风险管理职能"、"改善信息不对称状况"和"提高信用政策制定水平"三方面提高风险管理绩效。     

Shippers and freight operators perceptions of sustainable initiatives

The purpose of this paper is to document the extent to which Brazilian companies in retail channels have committed to adopting environmental sustainability measures, goals and strategies for waste disposal in the evaluation and planning of sustainable transportation. This paper also aims to examine the different viewpoints of sustainability issues and the preventive actions taken by companies in terms of controlling carbon dioxide emissions and proper disposal of tires, lubricant oils, accessories and spare parts. Finally, taking the perspective of these companies, this paper examines their difficulties in meeting environmental regulations. The research involved a survey completed by 185 representatives of different types of companies, including shippers (represented by manufacturers), LSPs (logistics service providers) and carriers. The non-linear canonical correlation was calculated to verify the opinions of these representatives from different companies regarding issues that impact on the environment, the preventive actions they adopt to reduce their environmental impact and their difficulties in meeting environmental regulations. The results show that shippers and LSPs have the same perceptions regarding these sustainability issues and preventive actions. In addition, the companies perceive high costs and the lack of training for their partners as the major challenges experienced in addressing these issues and undertaking preventive actions. Therefore they need to plan their transportation activities.     

Robust test for independence in high dimensions

This article develops a new test based on Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients for total independence in high dimensions. The test is robust to the non normality and heavy tails of the data, which is a merit that is not shared by the existing tests in literature. Simulation results suggest that the new test performs well under several typical null and alternative hypotheses. Besides, we employ a real data set to illustrate the use of the new test.     

编辑审稿中的非学术因素及排除之策

学术期刊是学术和学科建设的重要阵地,应以学术性作为编辑审稿工作的唯一标准。然而,在现有学术评价体制的影响下,这一工作受到了诸多非学术因素的消极干扰,如以作者身份的高低而非稿件质量的高低来取舍稿件。这一非学术性倾向直接影响了审稿的公正性,也削弱了编辑审稿活动的意义,是学术评价异化的一种反映,不利于学术研究的正常进行和健康发展。编辑应该强化责任意识,自觉克服心理因素,排除思维定势,提高学术判断力,重视学术新人的发现和扶持,从而有效发挥学术期刊在学术和学科建设中的积极作用。     

Statistical estimation of internal available bandwidth

This paper presents a method for using end-to-end available bandwidth measurements in order to estimate available bandwidth on individual internal links. The basic approach is to use a power transform on the observed end-to-end measurements, model the result as a mixture of spatially correlated exponential random variables, carryout estimation by moment methods, then transform back to the original variables to get estimates and confidence intervals for the expected available bandwidth on each link. Because spatial dependence leads to certain parameter confounding, only upper bounds can be found reliably. Simulations with ns2 show that the method can work well and that the assumptions are approximately valid in the examples.     

The Complete Exact Null Distribution of Spearman's Rho for n = 12(1)18

Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, Rho, is a widely used nonparametric measure of association. Complete, exact tables of the null distribution are calculated and presented for n = 12 to 18.     

金融资产的动态非线性相关:一个新的模型

基于Kendall’sτ秩相关系数的优越性和定义,本文提出了新的具有明确经济意义的动态条件相关copula模型,将常用的Gaussian、Clayton和Gumbel函数统一根据该演化方程实现动态化,构造出三种Kendall’sτ动态条件相关copula模型,可用于刻画不同的相关模式。这些模型不仅参数少、容易估计,避免了现有动态条件相关copula模型构建方法各异导致的在实证中不利于比较的缺点,而且能够进行多步向前预测,有效地减少了进行样本外预测时的计算量,从而为刻画时变、非线性、非对称性和尾部相关等复杂的动态相关模式提供了新方法。