Objective Testing Procedures in Linear Models: Calibration of the p-values

Abstract.  An optimal Bayesian decision procedure for testing hypothesis in normal linear models based on intrinsic model posterior probabilities is considered. It is proven that these posterior probabilities are simple functions of the classical F -statistic, thus the evaluation of the procedure can be carried out analytically through the frequentist analysis of the posterior probability of the null. An asymptotic analysis proves that, under mild conditions on the design matrix, the procedure is consistent. For any testing hypothesis it is also seen that there is a one-to-one mapping – which we call calibration curve – between the posterior probability of the null hypothesis and the classical bi p -value. This curve adds substantial knowledge about the possible discrepancies between the Bayesian and the p -value measures of evidence for testing hypothesis. It permits a better understanding of the serious difficulties that are encountered in linear models for interpreting the p -values. A specific illustration of the variable selection problem is given.     

Approximating bayesian inference by weighted likelihood

The author proposes to use weighted likelihood to approximate Bayesian inference when no external or prior information is available. He proposes a weighted likelihood estimator that minimizes the empirical Bayes risk under relative entropy loss. He discusses connections among the weighted likelihood, empirical Bayes and James‐Stein estimators. Both simulated and real data sets are used for illustration purposes.     

从唱和词集为《全清词·顺康卷》补目

《全清词·顺康卷》的出版，把清词、甚至清代文学研究推向一个新台阶。然而，把清词网罗无遗显然难度极大，搜遗辑佚是一项长期的工作。笔者近期关注清初词，发现许多唱和词集有《全清词·顺康卷》未收词作，顺便补录274首，以俟补编时参考。     

“居”的考略

"居"不仅是一个现实的问题,更是一个历史的、诗学的问题.本文将"居"的范畴规约、定格在物理和文本意义之上,并对"居"从问题的凸显,历时发育与式微,共时的失明与自反以及诗意地栖居等方面对"居"进行考略,以期当下我们熟悉而又陌生的"居"得以澄明,从"失明"而走向"复明",实现人类诗性栖居的回归.     

新昆山腔的曲律规范与汤显祖剧作的"失律"

经过魏良辅的改造,新昆山腔具备了“磨调”的唱法和“转喉”的发声技巧,并对曲唱的字声提出了规范要求。而沈璟又在曲谱上对它进行更为苛刘的限定,反使之成为传奇的束缚,限制了剧作家的才情。对唱腔曲牌的“犯律”并不始于汤显祖,只是平仄和押韵的不谐,不方便以吴语为基础的昆腔“转喉”的唱法。因此被吴中文人指责为“失律”。     

Risk Assessment for Carcinogens Under California''s Proposition 65

Risk assessments for carcinogens are being developed through an accelerated process in California as a part of the state's implementation of Proposition 65, the Safe Drinking Water and Toxic Enforcement Act. Estimates of carcinogenic potency made by the California Department of Health Services (CDHS) are generally similar to estimates made by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The largest differences are due to EPA's use of the maximum likelihood estimate instead of CDHS' use of the upper 95% confidence bounds on potencies derived from human data and to procedures used to correct for studies of short duration or with early mortality. Numerical limits derived from these potency estimates constitute "no significant risk" levels, which govern exemption from Proposition 65's discharge prohibition and warning requirements. Under Proposition 65 regulations, lifetime cancer risks less than 10(-5) are not significant and cumulative intake is not considered. Following these regulations, numerical limits for a number of Proposition 65 carcinogens that are applicable to the control of toxic discharges are less stringent than limits under existing federal water pollution control laws. Thus, existing federal limits will become the Proposition 65 levels for discharge. Chemicals currently not covered by federal and state controls will eventually be subject to discharge limitations under Proposition 65. "No significant risk" levels (expressed in terms of daily intake of carcinogens) also trigger warning requirements under Proposition 65 that are more extensive than existing state or federal requirements. A variety of chemical exposures from multiple sources are identified that exceed Proposition 65's "no significant risk" levels.     

被保险人因“履行道德上义务”所致之损害——评中国台湾地区高等法院台中分院2012年度保险上易1判决

此件系争事故发生既出于被保险人之故意,则依中国台湾地区《保险法》第29条第2项但书规定,损害出于投保人或被保险人之故意者,保险人不负保险责任。然此件被保险人复主张,其接受捐肝手术之行为,乃为救助其夫,虽出于故意但属“履行道德上义务”,依中国台湾地区《保险法》第30条,保险人对于因“履行道德上义务”所致之损害应负赔偿责任。根据英美法上的“公众良心标准”,此件被保险人捐肝救夫之行为,其故意行为乃造成身体之伤害,而其欲成就之利益乃救助丈夫性命,两相权衡,其欲成就之利益显大于因故意行为而造成之损害,故保险人应负理赔之责。     

现象学视野下的具象表现绘画与《逍遥游》

《逍遥游》是《庄子》的总论,集中体现了庄子对精神自由的祈向。《逍遥游》有三个方面的思想：至人无己;拔俗;无用之用。通过解读《逍遥游》文本,力图挖掘其对于当代中国具象表现绘画艺术的某些启示。首先论述画家如何通过“待道”的途径实现“无待”,达到至人无己的生命境界。其次论述艺术沦为俗务的种种表现以及拔俗对于具象表现绘画的重要性。最后论述了将具象表现绘画树之于无何有之乡,实现其无待逍遥游。     

空间理论视域下农民工“城市不融入”探究

现阶段,农民工作为城市化的建设者和贡献者,遭遇到无法融入城市的不公平境遇。20世纪70年代以来兴起的空间理论为解释农民工“城市不融入”问题提供了一个有力视角。基于空间理论分析,造成农民工“城市不融入”的主要原因是：制度空间设计下的户籍制度具有双重逻辑：既带来“城”和“乡”空间对立,又形成“农民”和“市民”身份排斥;地域空间中,住房的缺失与“城中村”形成,“寄生空间”与“城市空间”对立;认同空间中,“市民”的空间排斥和“农民工”的自我怀疑无法达成心理共识。要解决农民工“城市不融入”,应在制度空间、地域空间以及认同空间的基础上构建空间融入。     

The non parametric regression estimate with dependent measurement errors

ABSTRACT

Non parametric regression estimation with measurement errors data has received great attention, and deconvolution local polynomial estimators can be used to deal with the problem that the errors are independent of other variables in the literature. In this article, the copula method is applied to tackle the case that the errors may depend on covariates, and the asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are derived. Two simulations are conducted to illustrate the performance of the proposed estimators.