Rebound effects in persuasion: considering potential ironic effects of suppression and correction / Efectos rebote en la persuasión: una consideración de los posibles efectos irónicos de la supresión y la corrección

Abstract

Previous theory and research in persuasion has failed to examine possible ironic effects of attempting to suppress or to correct for influences of a potentially biasing source. Yet, because people often encounter sets of persuasive communications in order (e.g., in advertising), such rebound effects seem possible. Data on such possibilities are scarce, however. Here we present a relevant study. It followed the typical single-shot persuasive message with a second message on an unrelated topic but employed a similar type of (potentially biasing — attractive or unattractive) source. Attitudes following the second communication showed increased source impact for participants asked to suppress source-related thoughts during the first message (especially when the second message was encountered under load). Instructions to correct for potential source effects during the first message did not show ironic effects following the second message. This relatively small study is not enough to make definitive claims, but it suggests that rebound effects of thought suppression are possible in (repeated) persuasion settings. Future research and open questions regarding ironic effects are discussed.     

A Note on Window Length Selection in Singular Spectrum Analysis

In singular spectrum analysis (SSA) window length is a critical tuning parameter that must be assigned by the practitioner. This paper provides a theoretical analysis of signal–noise separation and time series reconstruction in SSA that can serve as a guide to optimal window choice. We establish numerical bounds on the mean squared reconstruction error and present their almost sure limits under very general regularity conditions on the underlying data generating mechanism. We also provide asymptotic bounds for the mean squared separation error. Evidence obtained using simulation experiments and real data sets indicates that the theoretical properties are reflected in observed behaviour, even in relatively small samples, and the results indicate how, in practice, an optimal assignment for the window length can be made.     

A simulation study of deterministic ridge estimators

Some deterministic ridge rules are proposed and their finite sample properties are studied. Further, a simulation study is also conducted. Based on the simulation results, the proposed ridge estimators can improve the mean squared error over the least squares estimator, provided that the condition number of correlation matrices in the regression model is large, say at least 1,000.     

时钟3.2GHz直接数字频率合成器的研制

阐述了时钟频率高达3.2 GHz的新型直接数字频率合成器的设计方案,由该方案设计的直接数字频率合成器最高输出频率可达1 500 MHz,并且可以产生线性调频、脉冲步进、调频步进等多种调制信号.通过对该直接数字频率合成器与DDS芯片AD9858进行相位噪声以及杂散进行对比分析,时钟为3.2 GHz的直接数字频率合成器不仅输出带宽得以扩展,其相位噪声在所测试点比AD9858要优10 dB,窄带杂散也较AD9858有很大提高.     

The lost control and other mysteries: Further revelations on New Zealand's fluoridation trial

The Hastings fluoridation trial in the 1950s is listed in textbooks as an important study confirming the effectiveness of fluoridation. A paper to the 56th (1987) Congress of the Australian and New Zealand Association for the Advancement of Science co‐authored by one of us (JC) showed, from government archives obtained under the Official Information Act, that the claimed tooth decay reductions were mainly the result of local changes in diagnostic procedure in school dental clinics, which were not mentioned in published versions of the study. The experimental control town, at first described as ‘ideal’, was abandoned following the discovery that after fluoridation commenced younger children had less tooth decay in the unfluoridated control town. Proponents claimed in explanation that a previously unknown soil factor had resulted in the control town having below average tooth decay. Opponents claimed that fluoride had worsened the teeth in the fluoridated town. This paper comments on reactions to the earlier published findings, and reports some further discoveries which help to answer questions concerning the old debate over the lost control, the behavior of those concerned and some other mysteries.     

On Estimating the Integrated Co-Volatility Using Noisy High-Frequency Data with Jumps

In this article, we consider the estimation of covariation of two asset prices which contain jumps and microstructure noise, based on high-frequency data. We propose a realized covariance estimator, which combines pre-averaging method to remove the microstructure noise and the threshold method to reduce the jumps effect. The asymptotic properties, such as consistency and asymptotic normality, are investigated. The estimator allows very general structure of jumps, for example, infinity activity or even infinity variation. Simulation is also included to illustrate the performance of the proposed procedure.     

Y1—10B型溢流阀启闭特性试验中的噪声分析与研究

本文对Ｙ１－１０Ｂ型溢流阀启闭特性试验中噪声及其频率进行了测试和分析。结果表明其噪声主要是由于液压泵流量脉动和溢流阀共振所致。文中提出了改进意见。     

ECM模型短期动态系数与协整模型长期均衡系数不一致性研究

研究了ECM模型中短期动态系数和协整模型中长期均衡系数之间的不一致性。根据协整理论,因变量的变化可以分解为基本面的变化和暂时性的噪声成分,短期动态系数由此产生。然而变量的差分减小了基本面的影响,同时提升了噪声对真实经济关系的扭曲。短期动态系数的推导过程进一步表明,噪声是造成短期动态系数小于长期均衡系数的原因。因变量变化越大,噪声的影响越小。国内外铜期货市场整合检验的实证结果与理论分析的预测相一致,实证结果同时显示,误差修正项的引入对短期动态系数的估计没有显著影响;当因变量变化巨大时,短期动态系数接近于长期均衡系数。     

信息?噪音?泡沫?--现代金融学前沿问题综论

30多年来,关于证券市场信息效率的研究一直是现代金融学的焦点问题.有效市场假说从理性行为出发,得出证券价格总是可以充分反映可获得的信息,其价格等于其"内在价值",即预期未来现金流的折现价值.然而,从上个世纪80年代开始,这一假说受到了空前的质疑,首先是来自噪音学派关于交易成本的批评,随后是来自行为金融学关于有限套利和噪音交易等更为严厉的质疑.90年代末关于证券市场价格泡沫的研究又成为现代金融学备受关注的热门话题.     

DSSW模型的交易者行为风险度量方法

在DSSW模型及噪声交易理论研究的基础上,引入市场风格和情绪指数变量,构建投资者证券交易风险度量模型,分析证券市场交易者行为风险与资产价格、无风险利率、风险资产股利、风险规避系数、市场预期价格、理性投资者所占比例、投资者情绪指数、理性投资者持有的风险资产数量及噪声交易者错误认知等变量之间的相关性及证券市场风格与投资者行为风险之间的相关性。理论分析表明: 一般情况下,噪声交易行为具有情绪感染和放大效应、风险资产持多和价格压力效应以及市场风格与风险资产偏好、行为风险的同向效应。