Adaptive nonparametric estimation in the presence of dependence

We consider nonparametric estimation problems in the presence of dependent data, notably nonparametric regression with random design and nonparametric density estimation. The proposed estimation procedure is based on a dimension reduction. The minimax optimal rate of convergence of the estimator is derived assuming a sufficiently weak dependence characterised by fast decreasing mixing coefficients. We illustrate these results by considering classical smoothness assumptions. However, the proposed estimator requires an optimal choice of a dimension parameter depending on certain characteristics of the function of interest, which are not known in practice. The main issue addressed in our work is an adaptive choice of this dimension parameter combining model selection and Lepski's method. It is inspired by the recent work of Goldenshluger and Lepski [(2011), ‘Bandwidth Selection in Kernel Density Estimation: Oracle Inequalities and Adaptive Minimax Optimality’, The Annals of Statistics, 39, 1608–1632]. We show that this data-driven estimator can attain the lower risk bound up to a constant provided a fast decay of the mixing coefficients.     

Scenario planning,cognition, and strategic investment decisions in a turbulent environment

We explore how scenario planning contributes to cognitive dynamics and strategic investment decisions in a changing environment. Our research is based on an in-depth, longitudinal case study of Shell's ventures in Russia between 1994 and 2016. We show that Shell's scenarios did not foresee some major events that occurred in the turbulent Russian energy market. However, the scenarios envisaged the rising role of gas, the strategic relevance of the gas transportation infrastructure, and the growing interventionism of the Russian government. The scenarios thus helped Shell's managers to adapt their strategic beliefs and ultimately enabled them to notice, assess, and respond successfully to external changes—even though these changes had not been foreseen in the scenarios. Shell has been the first (and, for almost a decade, the only) foreign company to produce and export gas from Russia.     

基于绘本阅读促进幼儿适应性心理品质发展

社会适应主题绘本在浅显易懂的故事情节中蕴含着“大善、大美、大智慧”，体现了儿童性与人生哲学的交融。通过“体验-感悟”教学模式，在感知体验的环节中促进幼儿社会适应认知的提高，在领悟践行的环节中促进社会适应行为的发展，在内化迁移的环节中促使社会适应意志的内化三阶段开展绘本阅读指导，能有效促进幼儿适应性心理品质如同情心、合作交往、解决冲突、环境适应等的发展。     

The evolution of the policy environment for climate change migration in Bangladesh: Competing narratives,coalitions and power

In spite of an enormous increase in attention to climate migration in Bangladesh, institutional weaknesses have meant that unplanned migration has triggered social issues. This situation requires investigation of the main challenges and opportunities in institutional capacity and policy development for climate change induced migration. Drawing on different narratives, networks and power status of stakeholders, this study identifies two competing coalitions: ‘in‐situ’ coalition, which shares the belief that migration is a failure of adaptation, and ‘ex‐situ’ coalition adhering to the emerging slogan of “migration as adaptive strategy.” The differentiated powers of two coalitions to some extent leave the agenda of climate migration in the policy domain as a subject of informal institutional capacity rather than a formal regulatory framework. Consequently, the evolution of the policy environment for climate migration depends on how effectively a greater policy space is determined by narratives, coalitions and power. Through a political economy lens, this article seeks to clarify the potential approaches to extending the policy space regarding climate migration in Bangladesh, first by improving ideological pluralism in international climate change finance, and, second, enhancing the bottom‐up process for resource mobilization. In short, the evolution of the policy environment for climate change largely depends on the political power of the ‘ex‐situ’ coalition.     

旅游地居民职业结构变迁的研究述评

旅游开发不仅对繁荣传统文化和地方经济产生着巨大的影响,而且对当地旅游地的社会变迁和居民的职业结构变迁具有重要的影响作用。从“旅游开发对当地居民职业结构所产生的影响”的相关研究入手,就旅游地居民职业结构变迁的研究状况进行系统地梳理、探讨。     

城市化过程中被拆迁群体的社区适应与融入研究

拆迁工作的核心与关键是安置好被拆迁群众,其实质就是使被拆迁群体真正适应社区并融入到社区新环境中去。拆迁不仅改变了被拆迁居民的房屋与居住地,更是毁灭性地破坏了被拆迁居民的社会关系和生活秩序,造成原有的生产体系、社会网络、社会组织与社会结构的解体。这就不可避免地造成被拆迁居民在生活、生产、心理、社会关系上的不适应,需要通过加强社区教育,完善社区基础设施,重构居民社会关系网络,建立健全社会保障和支持网络等措施,来增强居民的社区归宿感,密切社区居民关系,解决他们生产生活中面临的问题,使其真正融入社区新环境中。     

留学生跨文化适应问题实证研究——基于北京某高校的调查

从留学生来华留学动机,跨文化适应中的个人因素和社会因素,留学生所在学校的学习、生活、管理方式以及留学的地域差异等方面,对北京某高校的留学生在京跨文化适应问题及其影响因素进行了调查。分析了来华留学生面临的文化障碍以及影响留学生跨文化适应的不同因素,以帮助留学生更好更快地适应中国的文化环境,同时为从事留学生工作的管理者和教育者提出了改善课程设计以及时间规划的相关建议。     

汉英离合字谜的元语言和语言学多维分析

汉语与英语中都有离合字谜,二者虽略有差异,其构成机制大致上相互对应。对汉荚离合字谜的理解有时不一定使用自然语言语境,而应当进行元语言分析。这符合Verschueren的适应论,可以从Sperber和Wilson的关联理论中得到解释：出谜人是关联理论中的“说话人”,谜语是一个“明示过程”,猜谜者在面临谜语的特殊“变异性”情况下,在心里进行“协商”,以适应猜谜的交际目的和语境,即从自然语言的语境切换到元语言层面进行分析,最终推理得出谜底。文章以几类最有代表性的汉英离合字谜为例加以分析,对这一特殊而有趣的语言现象进行了阐释。     

农村婚姻移民的家庭融合及对其异地适应的影响

异地联姻是夫妻双方来自不同的县、市、省而形成的跨地区通婚,婚姻移民是因为异地联姻而发生了迁移的人员。婚姻移民家庭融合程度较高,这是因为异地联姻是在各种结构性因素限制下联姻双方所做出的理性选择,符合婚姻移民和当地居民双方的利益。但是,异地联姻家庭中也存在一些较为普遍的家庭问题与家庭矛盾,"异地联姻"的因素仍对其家庭融合产生负面影响。家庭融合对婚姻移民的异地生活适应有非常重要的影响。     

幼儿园寄宿生与非寄宿生社会适应能力及社交焦虑研究

采用婴儿-初中生社会生活能力量表和儿童社交焦虑量表对幼儿园寄宿生和非寄宿生的家长及教师进行问卷调查。结果表明,寄宿幼儿的社会适应能力在总体得分上显著高于非寄宿幼儿;在社会化和自我管理两因子上也显著高于非寄宿幼儿;寄宿幼儿的社交焦虑得分高于非寄宿幼儿,但不显著。寄宿虽然可以提高幼儿的社会适应能力,但易引起幼儿社交焦虑,呼吁家长理性看待寄宿教育,并建议寄宿学校及家长关注寄宿生的心理健康。