Characterising the Perceived Risks and Benefits of Some Health Issues

Previous work on perceived risk, particularly a study by Fischhoff et al. (1978), is critically examined with reference to its applicability to specific health related issues. Judgments were obtained from 159 subjects of 15 health-related items in terms of perceived risk, benefit, and a number of risk characteristics based on the Fischhoff et al. research. In addition, demographic details concerning sex of respondent, seat belt usage, smoking status, and birth order were collected. Using regression analyses it was found that the direction of the risk-benefit relationship was dependent on the issue being judged. Risk was found to be better explained by ratings of likelihood of mishap and likelihood of death as a consequence of mishap. Benefit was poorly explained by the risk characteristics and demographic data. However, subject group characteristics were shown to be important influences on risk and benefit perception in certain situations. The implications of these results for understanding behavioral decisions involving risk in relation to specific activities are discussed.     

Probabilistic Risk Analyses: NRC Programs and Perspectives

The historical basis and more recent activities and products of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) in the Atomic Energy Commission and Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) are reviewed. Current NRC program activities and objectives are described. The author's opinions on the best uses of PRA are presented.     

Using the Biological Two-Stage Model to Assess Risk from Short-Term Exposures

Two assumptions used in risk assessment are investigated: (1) the assumption of fraction of lifetime dose rate assumes that the risk from a fractional lifetime exposure at a given dose rate is equal to the risk from full lifetime exposure at that same fraction of the given dose rate; (2) the assumption of fraction of lifetime risk assumes that the risk from a fractional lifetime exposure at a given dose rate is equal to that same fraction of the risk from full lifetime exposure at the same dose rate. These two assumptions are equivalent when risk is a linear function of dose. Thus both can be thought of as generalizations of the assumption that cancer risk is proportional to the total accumulated lifetime dose (or average daily dose), which is often made to assess the risk from short-term exposures. In this paper, the age-specific cumulative hazard functions are derived using the two-stage model developed by Moolgavkar, Venzon, and Knudson for situations when the exposure occurs during a single period or a single instant. The two assumptions described above are examined for three types of carcinogens, initiator, completer, and promoter, in the context of the model. For initiator and completer, these two assumptions are equivalent in the low-dose region; for a promoter, using the fraction of lifetime risk assumption is generally more conservative than that of the fraction of lifetime dose rate assumption. Tables are constructed to show that the use of either the fraction of lifetime dose rate assumption or the fraction lifetime risk assumption can both underestimate and overestimate the true risk for the three types of carcinogens.     

Empirical Bayes rules and Gaussian processes

In this paper we study empirical Bayes (e.B.) rules from a viewpoint which has not yet got any attention in the literature. Since an e.B. estimator can be seen as an estimate of an unknown function, namely the true Bayes estimator, it is natural to consider e.B. estimators as stochastic processes. In this paper we make a first attempt in the direction of this approach. For a certain class of e.B. estimators for the continuous one-parameter exponential family, we investigate the global behaviour on finite intervals. It is shown that the difference between the e.B. and the true Bayes estimator can be represented as a certain type of Gaussian process plus a remainder which is uniformly of smaller order. Several applications of this result are given.     

Judgment and Analysis in Oil Spill Risk Assessment

The risk of oil spills is a major environmental issue in the siting of proposed coastal refineries, oil terminals, deepwater ports, and in the leasing of offshore lands for oil exploration and development. As with any kind of risk, oil spill risk assessment is inherently judgmental and no analytic method can eliminate the need for judgment. This paper compares representative examples of oil spill risk assessments with regard to decisions about data, variables, functional relations, and uncertainty. The comparison emphasizes the judgmental basis of analytic methods.     

Issues in Qualitative and Quantitative Risk Analysis for Developmental Toxicology1

The qualitative and quantitative evaluation of risk in developmental toxicology has been discussed in several recent publications.(^1–3) A number of issues still are to be resolved in this area. The qualitative evaluation and interpretation of end points in developmental toxicology depends on an understanding of the biological events leading to the end points observed, the relationships among end points, and their relationship to dose and to maternal toxicity. The interpretation of these end points is also affected by the statistical power of the experiments used for detecting the various end points observed. The quantitative risk assessment attempts to estimate human risk for developmental toxicity as a function of dose. The current approach is to apply safety (uncertainty) factors to die no observed effect level (NOEL). An alternative presented and discussed here is to model the experimental data and apply a safety factor to an estimated risk level to achieve an “acceptable” level of risk. In cases where the dose-response curves upward, this approach provides a conservative estimate of risk. This procedure does not preclude the existence of a threshold dose. More research is needed to develop appropriate dose-response models that can provide better estimates for low-dose extrapolation of developmental effects.     

经理人“两化”工作体系及运作模式框架研究

在入世和十六大关于经济体制改革有关问题的背景下,研究国内外经理人职业化和市场化运作模式基础上,结合我国现实条件,探索经理人"两化"工作体系和运作模式初步框架.对推进经理人的职业化和市场化,深化国有企业改革、完善企业治理结构、最终提升企业竞争力有一定的现实意义.     

我国农业保险发展问题研究

我国是一个农业大国,也是世界上自然灾害最为严重的国家之一,各年自然灾害对我国农业造成的经济损失比较惨重。农业保险作为农业生产的坚强后盾,越来越引起了国家的重视,面对农业保险的萎缩,建立并完善农业保险制度十分必要。本文研究的主要内容:(1)明确发展农业保险的必要性;(2)探讨造成我国农业保险持续萎缩的原因;(3)我国农业保险的发展对策。     

Lorenz non-consistent welfare and inequality measurement

Typical welfare and inequality measures are required to be Lorenz consistent which guarantees that inequality decreases and welfare increases as a result of a progressive transfer. We explore the implications for welfare and inequality measurement of substituting the weaker absolute differentials and deprivation quasi-orderings for the Lorenz quasi-ordering. Restricting attention to distributions of equal means, we show that the utilitarian model - the so-called expected utility model in the theory of risk - does not permit one to make a distinction between the views embedded in the differentials, deprivation and Lorenz quasi-orderings. In contrast it is possible within the dual model of M. Yaari (Econometrica 55 (1987), 99–115) to derive the restrictions to be placed on the weighting function which guarantee that the corresponding welfare orderings are consistent with the differentials and deprivation quasi-orderings respectively. Finally we drop the equal mean condition and indicate the implications of our approach for the absolute ethical inequality indices.