The Role of Perceived Control and Overconfidence in Pathological Gambling

Two studies sought to determine whether perceived control has different effects on confidence assessment and betting decisions among pathological and problem gamblers than among non-problem gamblers. In Study 1, 200 college students who were frequent gamblers (80 female and 120 male, median age 20) completed the South Oaks Gambling Screen (SOGS) and then engaged in a task in which they answered questions, assessed confidence in each answer, and considered bets on their answers that were fair if they were well-calibrated, but unfavorable if they were overconfident. Probable pathological and problem gamblers earned significantly fewer points than non-problem gamblers. This was due to greater overconfidence among pathological and problem gamblers, which led to systematically less favorable bets. In Study 2, using 384 participants (105 female and 279 male, median age 20), control was independently manipulated and bets were constructed to make point value independent of overconfidence. Problem and pathological gamblers showed both greater overconfidence and greater bet acceptance. They were less affected by control in their betting decisions than non-problem gamblers, but more affected in the slope of their betting function. It is concluded that pathological and problem gamblers process information about confidence and control differently from non-problem gamblers.     

外汇衍生品监管与跨境投资企业信用评级——基于“企业层面外汇衍生品监管指数”的实证分析

“一带一路”倡议和“走出去”战略加速了外汇衍生品市场的发展,而加强外汇衍生品监管是市场平稳运行的重要保障。在创新性地构建“企业层面外汇衍生品监管指数”的基础上,基于2007—2019年中国跨境投资企业数据,实证检验了外汇衍生品监管对企业信用评级的影响及作用机制。研究发现,加强外汇衍生品监管能够有效提升企业信用评级,且主要通过减少企业违规行为、增强信息透明度和抑制管理者过度自信三种渠道提升信用评级。异质性分析表明,上述提升效果在国有企业中更大。进一步研究发现,加强外汇衍生品监管可以抑制企业信用评级的调整动机。因此,监管部门应优化衍生品监管法规,倡导套期保值原则,提高评级机构违规成本,提升衍生品交易信息透明度,进而促进外汇衍生品市场的健康发展。     

盈利因子与资产定价关系的进一步解释--基于管理者过度自信的调节效应视角

基于2012—2017年中国A股市场上市公司数据,同时考虑应计盈余管理和真实盈余管理两种盈余操作模式,在改进管理者过度自信衡量方法的基础上,实证分析管理者过度自信对盈余管理与资产定价之间关系的调节作用.结果表明:(1)管理者过度自信对股票收益产生显著的负向影响.(2)应计盈余管理、真实盈余管理分别与资产定价之间呈U形关系.(3)管理者过度自信未能在应计盈余管理与资产定价之间的关系中发挥调节作用,而管理者过度自信显著地负向调节了真实盈余管理与资产定价之间的U形关系.上述结论拓展和深化了资产定价的研究,为管理者过度自信在盈余管理对股票资产定价影响中发挥的调节作用提供了经验证据.     

考虑过度自信的交叉持股供应链决策研究

过度自信作为一种典型的决策者非理性行为特征，会对交叉持股供应链成员的决策产生影响。鉴于此，本文旨在探讨存在过度自信的交叉持股供应链的决策问题。考虑到供应链成员的过度自信特征，在制造商和零售商均完全理性、仅制造商过度自信、仅零售商过度自信以及二者均过度自信的四种模式下，本文构建了制造商与零售商交叉持股的供应链模型，运用了 Stackelberg博弈方法对模型进行求解，讨论了过度自信及交叉持股比例对供应链成员决策的影响，并通过数值仿真对结论进行验证。研究表明：当市场环境较好时，交叉持股的任何一方过度自信程度的提高会使自身利润下降，而使另一方利润提高；当市场环境较差时，制造商过度自信会使双方的收益都受损，而零售商过度自信会使自身利润提升，使制造商收益下降；制造商和零售商可以通过调整交叉的持股比例来调节过度自信对利润的影响。