Epistemic modesty,ostentatiousness and the uncertainties of epigenetics: on the knowledge machinery of (social) science

Epigenetic processes are garnering attention in the social sciences, where some scholars assert their importance for theorizing social life. I engage with such ideas here by drawing on interviews with leading bioscientists. To begin with, I underscore the (productive) uncertainties of those working in and around epigenetics; I describe these as a manifestation of ‘epistemic modesty’, and suggest that dissensus helps to propel biomedical innovation. Then, drawing on the concept of ‘alien science’, I detail some researchers’ ambivalences regarding the notion of ‘transgenerational inheritance’; their dissatisfaction with the (public) communication practices of other scientists (situated in what I term a regime of ‘epistemic ostentatiousness’); and the challenges faced when moderating societal discussion of epigenetics in ways that expand excitement whilst deflating (what researchers regard as) unrealistic expectations. The paper concludes with reflections on the knowledge machinery of the (social) sciences, and employs the study data to interrogate sociological engagements with epigenetics.     

Considerations on jury size and composition using lower probabilities

The use of lower probabilities is considered for inferences in basic jury scenarios to study aspects of the size of juries and their composition if society consists of subpopulations. The use of lower probability seems natural in law, as it leads to robust inference in the sense of providing a defendant with the benefit of the doubt. The method presented in this paper focusses on how representative a jury is for the whole population, using a novel concept of a second ’imaginary’ jury together with exchangeability assumptions. It has the advantage that there is an explicit absence of any assumption with regard to guilt of a defendant. Although the concept of a jury in law is central in the presentation, the novel approach and the conclusions of this paper hold for representative decision making processes in many fields, and it also provides a new perspective to stratified sampling.     

The Role of Behavioral Responses in the Total Economic Consequences of Terrorist Attacks on U.S. Air Travel Targets

U.S. airports and airliners are prime terrorist targets. Not only do the facilities and equipment represent high‐value assets, but the fear and dread that is spread by such attacks can have tremendous effects on the U.S. economy. This article presents the methodology, data, and estimates of the macroeconomic impacts stemming from behavioral responses to a simulated terrorist attack on a U.S. airport and on a domestic airliner. The analysis is based on risk‐perception surveys of these two scenarios. The responses relate to reduced demand for airline travel, shifts to other modes, spending on nontravel items, and savings of potential travel expenditures by U.S. resident passengers considering flying domestic routes. We translate these responses to individual spending categories and feed these direct impact results into a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. economy to ascertain the indirect and total impacts on both the airline industry and the economy as a whole. Overall, the estimated impacts on GDP of both types of attacks exceed $10B. We find that the behavioral economic impacts are almost an order of magnitude higher than the ordinary business interruption impacts for the airliner attack and nearly two orders of magnitude higher for the airport attack. The results are robust to sensitivity tests on the travel behavior of U.S. residents in response to terrorism.     

Near‐Misses and Future Disaster Preparedness

Disasters garner attention when they occur, and organizations commonly extract valuable lessons from visible failures, adopting new behaviors in response. For example, the United States saw numerous security policy changes following the September 11 terrorist attacks and emergency management and shelter policy changes following Hurricane Katrina. But what about those events that occur that fall short of disaster? Research that examines prior hazard experience shows that this experience can be a mixed blessing. Prior experience can stimulate protective measures, but sometimes prior experience can deceive people into feeling an unwarranted sense of safety. This research focuses on how people interpret near‐miss experiences. We demonstrate that when near‐misses are interpreted as disasters that did not occur and thus provide the perception that the system is resilient to the hazard, people illegitimately underestimate the danger of subsequent hazardous situations and make riskier decisions. On the other hand, if near‐misses can be recognized and interpreted as disasters that almost happened and thus provide the perception that the system is vulnerable to the hazard, this will counter the basic “near‐miss” effect and encourage mitigation. In this article, we use these distinctions between resilient and vulnerable near‐misses to examine how people come to define an event as either a resilient or vulnerable near‐miss, as well as how this interpretation influences their perceptions of risk and their future preparedness behavior. Our contribution is in highlighting the critical role that people's interpretation of the prior experience has on their subsequent behavior and in measuring what shapes this interpretation.     

Seeking Clarity and Confidence in the Divorce Decision-Making Process

There is a well-established literature dedicated to why couples divorce, transitions associated with divorce, and the impact of divorce on families. However, little is known about the divorce decision-making process. We conducted in-depth interviews with individuals who have recently considered divorce (n = 30) and asked specifically about the roles of 2 concepts in their decision-making process: clarity and confidence. Three major themes emerged from the data: (a) Clarity about a decision to divorce or stay married is desired, it fluctuates, and takes time to find; (b) pivotal moments can bring clarity; and (c) confidence (in the final decision) is desired. Clinical implications and directions for future research are discussed.     

Care without coercion – mental health rights,personal recovery and trauma‐informed care

Australian mental health services continue to use involuntary measures in response to consumers' mental distress. Regardless of the intent behind these practices, the experience of being forced to receive treatment, be secluded or restrained is traumatic and can cause further distress and harm. Other parts of the health or social service system have shifted to approaches that emphasise agency, social context, prevention, and rights. Three frameworks currently used in mental health services – human rights, personal recovery, and trauma‐informed – are consistent with a shift away from the use of force. We applied these frameworks to the text of the National Standards for Mental Health Services 2010 to analyse the degree to which it reflects a shift. We also analysed the public text of speakers' notes from the Care Without Coercion Conference 2012 concerning lived experiences of force in mental health services. The analysis highlights force in many aspects of policy. The findings have implications for directions of change, including freedom from violence; support for decision making; access and choice about community and inpatient options; safety and risk management; and greater understanding of current policy frameworks through engagement with people with lived experience about the options and impact of support processes that exclude the use of force.     

Atos Healthcare withdraws from the Work Capability Assessment: a comment

In March 2014 Atos Healthcare withdrew a year early from its contract to provide the UK’s health assessment – the Work Capability Assessment (WCA) – that is supposed to sort disabled people into administrative categories according to their adjudged capability to do paid work. This move was welcomed by political elites, with, for example, UK Coalition Government Minister for Disabled People Mike Penning using it to criticise previous Labour governments for the contractual arrangements they put in place – although while the Coalition may have been concerned with the contractual arrangements soon after being formed, it extended the contract for five years. For the UK disability movement, the withdrawal of Atos Healthcare early from the WCA contract was a victory and, at least in part, a consequence of disabled activists’ resistance to the Employment and Support Allowance generally, and the WCA in particular.     

“利用影响力受贿罪”身份犯性质的质疑

＂利用影响力受贿罪＂的主体被设定为与国家工作人员具有密切关系的人员,视为身份犯。不过本罪所欲保护的法益是公务员对自身合法职权的行使的排他性而非受贿罪所要求的职务行为的廉洁性,故其不属于身份犯;另外,＂密切关系人＂这一概念的内涵无法被明确界定,缺乏被界定为身份的可操作性。因此应该合理地将本罪解释为非身份犯。     

Factors That May Influence Parent Treatment Decision Making for Young Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder

ABSTRACT

The number of interventions available for children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) has expanded greatly in recent years, although relatively little is known about the factors that influence family caregivers as they make treatment decisions for their children. This study involved a statewide survey of parents of young children with ASD to examine the relative weights of the factors that influenced their treatment decisions. Results suggested that caregivers rely on their own intuition for much decision making, although selected professionals are also influential. Implications for professionals working with children with ASD and their families are discussed.     

The Collapsing Choice Theory: Dissociating Choice and Judgment in Decision Making

Decision making theory in general, and mental models in particular, associate judgment and choice. Decision choice follows probability estimates and errors in choice derive mainly from errors in judgment. In the studies reported here we use the Monty Hall dilemma to illustrate that judgment and choice do not always go together, and that such a dissociation can lead to better decision-making. Specifically, we demonstrate that in certain decision problems, exceeding working memory limitations can actually improve decision choice. We show across four experiments that increasing the number of choice alternatives forces people to collapse choices together, resulting in better decision-making. While choice performance improves, probability judgments do not change, thus demonstrating an important dissociation between choice and probability judgments. We propose the Collapsing Choice Theory (CCT) which explains how working memory capacity, probability estimation, choice alternatives, judgment, and regret all interact and effect decision quality.