Relevance of Risk Predictions Derived from a Chronic Species Sensitivity Distribution with Cadmium to Aquatic Populations and Ecosystems

Criteria to protect aquatic life are intended to protect diverse ecosystems, but in practice are usually developed from compilations of single‐species toxicity tests using standard test organisms that were tested in laboratory environments. Species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) developed from these compilations are extrapolated to set aquatic ecosystem criteria. The protectiveness of the approach was critically reviewed with a chronic SSD for cadmium comprising 27 species within 21 genera. Within the data set, one genus had lower cadmium effects concentrations than the SSD fifth percentile‐based criterion, so in theory this genus, the amphipod Hyalella, could be lost or at least allowed some level of harm by this criteria approach. However, population matrix modeling projected only slightly increased extinction risks for a temperate Hyalella population under scenarios similar to the SSD fifth percentile criterion. The criterion value was further compared to cadmium effects concentrations in ecosystem experiments and field studies. Generally, few adverse effects were inferred from ecosystem experiments at concentrations less than the SSD fifth percentile criterion. Exceptions were behavioral impairments in simplified food web studies. No adverse effects were apparent in field studies under conditions that seldom exceeded the criterion. At concentrations greater than the SSD fifth percentile, the magnitudes of adverse effects in the field studies were roughly proportional to the laboratory‐based fraction of species with adverse effects in the SSD. Overall, the modeling and field validation comparisons of the chronic criterion values generally supported the relevance and protectiveness of the SSD fifth percentile approach with cadmium.     

缝洞型油藏储集体分类建模方法研究

为了表征缝洞型碳酸盐岩油藏储集体类型多样、尺度差异大、空间分布规律复杂的特征，采用"分级分类、岩溶相控、多类型融合"的方法，分别对不同类型缝洞储集体的规模大小、外部几何形态及内部属性特征进行建模，建立了基于岩溶成因的融合原则，实现了不同类型缝洞储集体的融合，并通过新钻井验证了模型可靠性。结果表明，该方法适用于此类强非均质性油藏的地质建模，能够有效表征不同类型储集体及属性参数的空间分布特征。基于模型，细化了XX单元的储量构成，其中，溶洞储量占63.1%，溶蚀孔洞储量占34.5%，大尺度裂缝储量占2.4%。该模型在油藏数值模拟中取得了较好的拟合效果和模拟结果。     

It Takes Two to Fight in School,Too: A Social Relations Model of the Psychometric Properties and Relative Variance of Dyadic Aggression and Victimization in Middle School

Aggressive behavior has been well studied in terms of interindividual differences among aggressors and victims, but has been understudied, especially within naturalistic contexts, in terms of aggressor–victim relationships. The social relations model (SRM) is a powerful conceptual and analytic tool for studying dyadic phenomena, and we describe the use of multivariate SRM to study aggression. Boys and girls (N = 210) in middle schools (sixth and seventh grades) completed a newly created dyadic aggression and victimization inventory (DAVI). Results support the reliability and validity of the DAVI in assessing inter‐individual and inter‐dyadic differences in aggression and victimization. Occurrences of aggression were accounted for primarily by inter‐dyadic variability, indicating the importance of considering aggressor–victim relationships. We discuss the implications of this relationship focus for future research and intervention efforts.     

Opinions toward suicide: Cross-national evaluation of cultural and religious effects on individuals

This study evaluates the role that religious and cultural values have on individual opinions toward suicide worldwide. Using multilevel modeling with data from the fourth wave of the World Values Survey (42,299 individuals in 43 countries), the current study is designed to analyze the effect of individual (i.e., micro-level), and country (i.e., macro-level) characteristics on opinions toward suicide. Specifically, cultural values, religious affiliation, religious importance, and church attendance are analyzed at both the individual and country levels to evaluate the impact of individual and country level effects on opinions toward suicide. The results show that individual opinions toward suicide are influenced by individual belief as well as by the cultural and religious characteristics of their country. The results suggest that evaluation of individual opinions toward controversial behavior should account for the unique and cross-interaction effects of micro- and macro-level effects.     

The Role of Criminal Social Identity in the Relationship between Criminal Friends and Criminal Thinking Style within a Sample of Recidivistic Prisoners

Previous research suggests a direct relationship between criminal friends and criminal thinking style; however, social identity theory proposes that identity mediates the impact of social group members on development of thinking styles. This research project is the first attempt to empirically test the mediating role of criminal social identity in the development of criminal thinking styles within a recidivistic prison sample (N = 312). The structural equation model of criminal thinking style presented and tested in this study supports the central predictions of social identity theory, with findings demonstrating an indirect effect of antisocial friend associations on criminal thinking through in-group affect and in-group ties with criminal in-group members that reflect two of three dimensions of the measure of criminal social identity applied in the current study. Further implications in relation to theory and previous studies are discussed.     

Neighborhood Conditions,Parenting, and Adolescent Functioning

ABSTRACT

This study examined youth self-reported data from a 4-year longitudinal study of 5th and 8th grade youth and their parents. Relationships between neighborhood conditions, parenting, and youth antisocial behavior were tested using structural equation modeling. The findings of this study appear to suggest there are two social forces that affect youth antisocial behavior: parenting and neighborhood conditions. Higher levels of parental acceptance and monitoring are directly and significantly associated with lower levels of youth antisocial behavior, as are higher levels of community social integration and lower levels of youth loneliness. Overall, it was found that some measures of neighborhood conditions and some measures of parenting were relatively equally predictive of youth antisocial behavior. Other measures of neighborhood conditions were predictive of parenting, but not strongly enough to also impact adolescent functioning.     

Longitudinal predictors of reading achievement among at-risk children

Early exposure to multiple risk factors is related to an elevated risk for academic difficulty. Thus, it is important to promote academic resilience as early as possible and to identify factors that support resilience. Given the positive relation between early literacy skills and later academic outcomes, examining resilience in reading is important. This study examined, first, whether the reading gap widens or narrows for below-average and above-average, at-risk children during the first four years of school; and, second, what protective factors predict reading achievement over time from kindergarten through the end of third grade. Results indicated that as a group, low-achieving children made smaller gains in reading than high-achieving children over the first four years of school. In addition, participation in center-based prekindergarten care, plus more access to books in the home, better interpersonal skills, and fewer poor physical conditions immediately surrounding elementary schools served as protective factors for at-risk children's early literacy development.     

ROC Curves in Non‐Parametric Location‐Scale Regression Models

Abstract. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is a tool of extensive use to analyse the discrimination capability of a diagnostic variable in medical studies. In certain situations, the presence of a covariate related to the diagnostic variable can increase the discriminating power of the ROC curve. In this article, we model the effect of the covariate over the diagnostic variable by means of non‐parametric location‐scale regression models. We propose a new non‐parametric estimator of the conditional ROC curve and study its asymptotic properties. We also present some simulations and an illustration to a data set concerning diagnosis of diabetes.     

Adolescent Sibling Relationship Quality and Adjustment: Sibling Trustworthiness and Modeling,as Factors Directly and Indirectly Influencing These Associations

The main goal of this study was to examine the direct and moderating effects of trustworthiness and modeling on adolescent siblings' adjustment. Data were collected from 438 families including a mother, a younger sibling in fifth, sixth, or seventh grade (M = 11.6 years), and an older sibling (M = 14.3 years). Respondents completed Web‐based surveys describing sibling conflict and warmth. Siblings reported on trustworthiness and modeling, and mothers described adjustment. Sibling conflict was directly associated with internalizing and externalizing behaviors for both siblings. The older siblings' reports of trustworthiness were directly associated with the outcome measures. The younger siblings' reports of trustworthiness were less directly associated, but a possible salutary effect was most evident under the highest levels of sibling conflict or warmth. Higher sibling modeling was a risk factor for adjustment problems in relations characterized by high conflict. Results support exploring trustworthiness as a key dimension of sibling relations.     

A Bayesian model for estimating the malaria transition probabilities considering individuals lost to follow-up

It is known that patients may cease participating in a longitudinal study and become lost to follow-up. The objective of this article is to present a Bayesian model to estimate the malaria transition probabilities considering individuals lost to follow-up. We consider a homogeneous population, and it is assumed that the considered period of time is small enough to avoid two or more transitions from one state of health to another. The proposed model is based on a Gibbs sampling algorithm that uses information of lost to follow-up at the end of the longitudinal study. To simulate the unknown number of individuals with positive and negative states of malaria at the end of the study and lost to follow-up, two latent variables were introduced in the model. We used a real data set and a simulated data to illustrate the application of the methodology. The proposed model showed a good fit to these data sets, and the algorithm did not show problems of convergence or lack of identifiability. We conclude that the proposed model is a good alternative to estimate probabilities of transitions from one state of health to the other in studies with low adherence to follow-up.