Mind-Reading and Metacognition: Narcissism, not Actual Competence, Predicts Self-Estimated Ability

In this paper, we examine the relationship between people's actual interpersonal sensitivity (such as their ability to identify deception and to infer intentions and emotions) and their perceptions of their own sensitivity. Like prior scholars, we find the connection is weak or non-existent and that most people overestimate their social judgment and mind-reading skills. Unlike previous work, however, we show new evidence about who misunderstands their sensitivity and why. We find that those who perform the worst in social judgment and mind-reading radically overestimate their relative competence. We also find origins of these self-estimates in general narcissistic tendencies toward self-aggrandizement. We discuss evidence from two studies, one involving the Interpersonal Perception Task (the IPT-15) and another focusing on inferences about partners after a face-to-face negotiation exercise. In both cases, actual performance did not predict self-estimated performance but narcissism did.     

碳强度对中国主要产业部门产值变动敏感性的动态估计

测算产业产值变动对碳强度的作用,可以为碳减排目标下产业结构调整方案的制定提供指导。基于投入产出理论建立系统动力学模型,以此为基础,分析中国主要产业部门产值变动对碳强度的动态作用过程,并从投资结构和消费结构两个方面探讨实现中国主要产业部门碳减排目标的有效途径。研究结果表明:从即期效应来看,制造业,电力、热力及水的生产和供应业,采矿业,其产值增加会使碳强度提高;从动态变化过程来看,农林牧渔业,采矿业,制造业,建筑业,交通运输、仓储和邮电业,批发零售贸易、住宿和餐饮业,房地产、租赁和商务服务业,其产值增加1%后碳强度呈现逐年降低的趋势;从碳强度的变化趋势来看,各产业部门产值增加对碳强度的作用力逐渐趋于稳定;产业产值变动碳减排效力的提高要依靠投资政策。     

涡旋压缩机异形封头可靠性设计

为评估异形封头结构在涡旋压缩机运行过程中的可靠性,参考压力容器椭圆形封头设计理论,采用常规设计方 法对封头进行了结构设计和强度校核;基于封头材料性能、结构尺寸等设计参数的分散性,将各参数作为正态分布的基 本变量,对封头结构进行了可靠性设计,并对基本变量分布参数的灵敏度进行分析。计算结果表明,与常规设计方法相 比,可靠性设计在确保结构安全性的前提下,同时保证了设计的经济性;影响封头可靠度的主要因素是材料屈服极限、工 作压力和壁厚。     

强水敏稠油油藏CO2 吞吐技术研究

郑408 块为典型的强水敏稠油油藏,由于储层能量不足和水敏性强,采用天然能量开发、注防膨水开发和蒸汽吞吐开发效果较差。通过室内实验研究了CO2 在郑408 原油中的溶解作用,认识了CO2 吞吐回采阶段渗流特征,基于数值模拟方法优化得到了郑408 块CO2 吞吐开发方案。研究表明,CO2 溶于稠油后,可使稠油的体积大幅度膨胀,原油黏度将大大降低;CO2 吞吐回采阶段,由于稠油黏度较高,CO2 在原油中析出后以小气泡形式分散在原油中,形成“泡沫油”渗流状态,“泡沫油”可以提高稠油的流动能力,增加原油的弹性能量,降低地层压力下降速度;数值模拟结果表明,郑408 块CO2 吞吐周期注入量优化值为100 t,注气速度优化值为50 t/d。     

Global sensitivity analysis with dependence measures

Global sensitivity analysis with variance-based measures suffers from several theoretical and practical limitations, since they focus only on the variance of the output and handle multivariate variables in a limited way. In this paper, we introduce a new class of sensitivity indices based on dependence measures which overcomes these insufficiencies. Our approach originates from the idea to compare the output distribution with its conditional counterpart when one of the input variables is fixed. We establish that this comparison yields previously proposed indices when it is performed with Csiszár f-divergences, as well as sensitivity indices which are well-known dependence measures between random variables. This leads us to investigate completely new sensitivity indices based on recent state-of-the-art dependence measures, such as distance correlation and the Hilbert–Schmidt independence criterion. We also emphasize the potential of feature selection techniques relying on such dependence measures as alternatives to screening in high dimension.     

Generalized Sobol sensitivity indices for dependent variables: numerical methods

The hierarchically orthogonal functional decomposition of any measurable function η of a random vector X=(X₁,?…?, X_p) consists in decomposing η(X) into a sum of increasing dimension functions depending only on a subvector of X. Even when X₁,?…?, X_p are assumed to be dependent, this decomposition is unique if the components are hierarchically orthogonal. That is, two of the components are orthogonal whenever all the variables involved in one of the summands are a subset of the variables involved in the other. Setting Y=η(X), this decomposition leads to the definition of generalized sensitivity indices able to quantify the uncertainty of Y due to each dependent input in X [Chastaing G, Gamboa F, Prieur C. Generalized Hoeffding–Sobol decomposition for dependent variables – application to sensitivity analysis. Electron J Statist. 2012;6:2420–2448]. In this paper, a numerical method is developed to identify the component functions of the decomposition using the hierarchical orthogonality property. Furthermore, the asymptotic properties of the components estimation is studied, as well as the numerical estimation of the generalized sensitivity indices of a toy model. Lastly, the method is applied to a model arising from a real-world problem.     

现代派文学的感性学评析

现代派文学的诞生与美学的现代转型是互为参照的 ;“aesthetics”经历了由感性学到美学再到感性学的“游历”过程 ;在美学回归感性学的时代 ,现代派文学与审美现代性在非理性的价值诉求上是一致的 ,即美学经过了理性主义的“审美”阶段之后 ,随着“城市感性”的发育 ,进入了非理性主义的“审丑”阶段。而现代派文学的感性核心是关于身体的现代感性学     

国内外中国研究生跨文化敏感度比较研究

本调查用Chen和Starosta的"跨文化敏感度量表"对100名国内外中国研究生的跨文化敏感度进行测评,旨在探索国内外中国研究生跨文化敏感度现状的差异。研究结果显示,留学国外的中国研究生跨文化敏感度总体水平高于在国内学习的研究生,留学国外的中国研究生比国内研究生更容易接受和认同不同的文化,更能从不同文化互动中获得享受。     

The Feeling Edge of Culture

During the 1960s, the new generation changed the American Creed by deemphasizing sensitivity to evidence, emphasizing feelings and deductive thought, while assuming an adversarial position against the sociopolitical order and embracing the American Black's struggle against racism. Driven by pain, fueled by fear and anger and oriented by existential values of being the Civil Rights Movement, sought to actualize political values of justice and equality. As peaceful demonstrations dwindled, violence increased, converting individual anger to social rage. Anger's cognitive structure changed the concept of society into a dichotomy of Black victims and Ulhite oppressors, forming an ethic of sensitivity with victims occupying the moral high ground. Pain and tragedy were banished from view and blamed on oppressors as individual identities divested civil traits and acquired cultural identity, disuniting the civil society. Rubbing against the American Creed, the ethic ofsensitivity produced a feeling of malaise posing a threat to mentaL health.     

线性规划中的灵敏度分析

考虑了线性规划模型中的灵敏度分析，解决了当约束条件减少时，最优解如何变化的问题。