中国房地产市场泡沫与潜在的金融风险

针对房地产泡沫与银行风险之间存在的内在机理,通过理论研究,全面而系统地深入分析房地产泡沫的形成、对银行的影响及其损害,在揭示其特质及内在作用机制的同时,为中国当前对房地产实施的宏观调控政策提供科学依据。     

Testing the difference between spectral densities of two independent periodically correlated (cyclostationary) time series models

In this work, the asymptotic distribution for the discrete Fourier transform of periodically correlated (PC) processes is applied to test the equality of two PC time series. Then the performance of the proposed method is investigated through the Monte Carlo simulations.     

Periodic integer-valued GARCH(1, 1) model

This article deals with some probabilistic and statistical properties of a periodic integer-valued GARCH(1,1) model. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the periodical stationary, both in mean and second order, are established. The closed-forms of the mean and the second moment are, under these conditions, obtained. The condition of the existence of higher moment orders and their explicit formula in terms of the parameters are established. The autocovariance structure is studied, while providing the closed-form of the periodic autocorrelation function. The Yule–Walker and the likelihood estimations of the underlying parameters are obtained. A simulation study and an application on real dataset are provided.     

我国中小板市场泡沫的度量

2008年10月到2009年2月中旬,我国中小板综合指数区间最大涨幅80%,远远超过同期上证指数约40%的区间最大涨幅,关于中小板是否存在泡沫,人们的争论颇多。在这样的背景下,借鉴国内相关研究成果,根据模型推导出合理市盈率的计算公式,并利用改进的加权平均市盈率代替被广泛使用的市盈率,考察我国中小板市场2005～2008年的泡沫程度。     

Rates of convergence of autocorrelation estimates for periodically correlated autoregressive Hilbertian processes

Autoregressive Hilbertian (ARH) processes are of great importance in the analysis of functional time series data and estimation of the autocorrelation operators attracts the attention of various researchers. In this paper, we study estimators of the autocorrelation operators of periodically correlated autoregressive Hilbertian processes of order one (PCARH(1)), which is an extension of ARH(1) processes. The estimation method is based on the spectral decomposition of the covariance operator and considers two main cases: known and unknown eigenvectors. We show the consistency in the mean integrated quadratic sense of the estimators of the autocorrelation operators and present upper bounds for the corresponding rates.     

中国股市泡沫破裂临界时点动态置信区间研究

本文在对数周期幂率(LPPL)模型基础上,分别构建了“滚动窗口”以及“固定起点并移动终点”两种泡沫临界点动态置信区间构建方法,并以中国股市沪深300指数在2007年和2015年发生的两次大牛市股市崩盘为研究对象,采用两种新的方法进行样本外预测,计算出泡沫破裂的临界时点以及动态置信区间。研究结果表明,随着时间的不断推移,泡沫破裂临界时点的置信区间基本上能稳定覆盖实际发生泡沫破裂的时点。相比单纯利用LPPL模型预测临界时点方法,置信区间法能更好地克服预测临界时点随机性的情况,并能很好显示股市泡沫临界区间的变化轨迹,为投资者风险管理提供参考。     

基于协整技术上的中国股票市场的理性分析

理性是股市成熟度的重要标志。利用协整技术,通过对具体个股股价和公司经营业绩间关系的分析,从微观的角度探讨股市的理性问题。实证的结果表明,股价与上市公司的经营业绩是脱钩的。从此意义上说,在中国证券市场,基础分析对证券分析没有作用,整个市场以投机行为为主,投资者的行为没有理性。     

Bubbles and Crashes

We present a model in which an asset bubble can persist despite the presence of rational arbitrageurs. The resilience of the bubble stems from the inability of arbitrageurs to temporarily coordinate their selling strategies. This synchronization problem together with the individual incentive to time the market results in the persistence of bubbles over a substantial period. Since the derived trading equilibrium is unique, our model rationalizes the existence of bubbles in a strong sense. The model also provides a natural setting in which news events, by enabling synchronization, can have a disproportionate impact relative to their intrinsic informational content.     

Accelerating Monte Carlo Markov chain convergence for cumulative-link generalized linear models

The ordinal probit, univariate or multivariate, is a generalized linear model (GLM) structure that arises frequently in such disparate areas of statistical applications as medicine and econometrics. Despite the straightforwardness of its implementation using the Gibbs sampler, the ordinal probit may present challenges in obtaining satisfactory convergence.We present a multivariate Hastings-within-Gibbs update step for generating latent data and bin boundary parameters jointly, instead of individually from their respective full conditionals. When the latent data are parameters of interest, this algorithm substantially improves Gibbs sampler convergence for large datasets. We also discuss Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC) implementation of cumulative logit (proportional odds) and cumulative complementary log-log (proportional hazards) models with latent data.     

气液两相流中气泡周围电场特性研究

针对均匀电场作用下的气液两相系统建立了数学模型，研究了单个及多个气泡附着于壁面、即将脱离和上升至两极板间的电场分布情况．结果表明，气泡周围电场的强弱及其分布的均匀性是影响气泡运动的重要因素．当大量气泡出现并有部分气泡脱离壁面时，电场对气泡的作用减弱，这为高热流密度下电场强化沸腾换热效果不再明显提供了理论依据。