Changes in At-Risk American Men's Crime and Substance Use Trajectories Following Fatherhood

Fatherhood can be a turning point in development and in men's crime and substance use trajectories. At-risk boys (N = 206) were assessed annually from ages 12 to 31 years. Crime, arrest, and tobacco, alcohol, and marijuana use trajectories were examined. Marriage was associated with lower levels of crime and less frequent substance use. Following the birth of a first biological child, men's crime trajectories showed slope decreases, and tobacco and alcohol use trajectories showed level decreases. The older men were when they became fathers, the greater the level decreases were in crime and alcohol use and the less the slope decreases were in tobacco and marijuana use. Patterns are consistent with theories of social control and social timetables.     

Exact permutation inference for two sample repeated measures data

Experiments in which very few units are measured many times sometimes present particular difficulties. Interest often centers on simple location shifts between two treatment groups, but appropriate modeling of the error distribution can be challenging. For example, normality may be difficult to verify, or a single transformation stabilizing variance or improving normality for all units and all measurements may not exist. We propose an analysis of two sample repeated measures data based on the permutation distribution of units. This provides a distribution free alternative to standard analyses. The analysis includes testing, estimation and confidence intervals. By assuming a certain structure in the location shift model, the dimension of the problem is reduced by analyzing linear combinations of the marginal statistics. Recently proposed algorithms for computation of two sample permutation distributions, require only a few seconds for experiments having as many as 100 units and any number of repeated measures. The test has high asymptotic efficiency and good power with respect to tests based on the normal distribution. Since the computational burden is minimal, approximation of the permutation distribution is unnecessary.     

基于博弈模型的“罪刑均衡”思想分析

罪刑均衡思想由来已久，作为刑法理论中最基本的刑罚原则，在对犯人进行科处刑罚方面具有的重要意义早已得到承认，而在预防犯罪方面具有的作用却长期被忽视。犯罪行为实质上是犯人和政府之间的博弈。政府先制订刑法，犯人在观察到刑罚后才选择是否犯罪以及犯何种性质的罪。经济分析表明，改变刑罚的确定性和严厉性就能影响博弈的均衡，从而影响犯罪，刑罚之外的其它措施如果能改变犯罪的成本和收益，也能实现同样的目的，这为预防犯罪提供了一种新的思路。     

The Guidance Function of Cases of Misappropriation of Public Funds in Transitional China—With the Reference to Criminal Trial of the Supreme People’s Court of China as a Sample of Analysis

相对于贪污、受贿等传统型腐败犯罪, 挪用公款罪不是常态性罪名, 而是针对社 会转型刑法应对的成果。该罪的立法、司法过程中存在着诸多纠结, 这使得判例参考 的价值凸显。最高人民法院十分重视对该罪判例的公布, 这为现实裁决提供了指导和 参考作用。最近10年所公布挪用公款罪判例折射出司法的重心是: 注重主体身份的实 质公务性、从形式合理性理解“归个人使用”、慎重解释“公款”的内涵。判例公布 在有利于同案同判的同时, 也成为促进理论与实践的助推器。

关键词: 腐败犯罪 挪用公款 社会转型 判例 ?刑事审判参考?

Compared with the traditional offenses of embezzlement, bribe-taking and so on, the misappropriation of public funds is not a routine charge but a result of the response of criminal law to social transition. The fact that a number of difficulties have arisen in legislative and judicial procedures relating to this offense makes the value of case reference material significant. The Supreme People’s Court of China attaches great importance to the publication of cases of misappropriation of public funds, which offer guidance and reference for real-life adjudication. Cases publicized in the last decade reflect a judicial emphasis—they focus on the official nature of the duties performed by the subject, on understanding “for individual use” from the viewpoint of formal rationality and on a cautious interpretation of the connotations of “public funds.” Publicizing such cases facilitates reaching the same verdict in similar cases and at the same time acts as a catalyst for the advancement of theory and practice.     

论《生死疲劳》的叙事策略

莫言仅用43天的时间就创作了近50万字的《生死疲劳》,其创作速度之快、文本之厚重、情节之复杂都令人惊奇。《生死疲劳》的成功与莫言独特的叙事策略密不可分,"六道轮回"的叙事模式、灵活多变的叙述视角以及怪诞传奇的叙事情节,不单是吸引读者的因素,更是文本构造的支柱。     

两岸民用航空犯罪司法管辖权问题研究

海峡两岸的司法管辖权从对峙走向交流,经历了曲折的反复。两岸的法律制度,也沿着两条不同的轨迹发展。虽同属于大陆法系,但不同的历史发展铸就了两个不同类型的法域。这样的隔阂,必然会阻碍两岸的司法交流。基于这个缺陷,从国际民用航空违法犯罪的司法管辖权这一制度出发,介绍了大陆以及台湾民用航空违法犯罪的司法管辖权,并从两岸管辖权的比较入手,分析了两岸民用航空违法犯罪的司法管辖权异议,提出了异议的解决途径。     

A simple method to obtain minimum aberration split-plot designs

ABSTRACT

Split-plot designs have been utilized in factorial experiments with some factors applied to larger units and others to smaller units. Such designs with low aberration are preferred when the experimental size and the number of factors considered in both whole plot and subplot are determined. The minimum aberration split-plot designs can be obtained using either computer algorithms or the exhausted search. In this article, we propose a simple, easy-to-operate approach by using two ordered sequences of columns from two orthogonal arrays in obtaining minimum aberration split-plot designs for experiments of sizes 16 and 32.     

被社会环境造就与造就社会环境——论小说中人物与社会环境关系的特殊形态

小说创作有三个要素：人物、情节、环境。小说中人物与环境的关系通常解释为：＂环境是人物展开交往和活动的具体场所。＂但在以著名历史人物为原型的小说中,人物与环境出现了复杂的情形,环境尤其是社会环境并不只是人物展开交往和活动的场所,还是人物性格形成的重要因素;著名历史人物对社会环境的改变也着极为重要的作用。《斯巴达克思》和《上尉的女儿》就是如此。     

Neighborhood Organizations and Resident Assistance to Police1

Police and scholars note that successful crime fighting requires police and residents to “co‐produce” public safety. However, residents are often reluctant to get involved in policing initiatives or even report crimes they witness. One possible means of stimulating resident involvement in crime‐control activities is through neighborhood organizations. This research, conducted on 1,313 residents of 42 neighborhoods in western South Carolina, investigates whether neighborhood organization participation increases the likelihood of assisting police in crime‐control efforts. Results indicate that organization participants are more likely to assist police than are nonparticipants, even after controlling for social cohesion, perceptions of police legitimacy, various policing strategies, fear of crime, and demographic factors.     

Social Worker Supervision with Novice and Experienced Workers

ABSTRACT

This empirical study compares the perceptions of social work supervisors about the needs of novice and experienced social work supervisees. The respondents, 211 supervisors in public welfare agencies in Israel, provided novice workers more supervisory time in 6 of the 8 content areas examined: administrative matters; inspection and control; inter-organizational communication; client issues; job-related tensions; and personal tensions. Projects in the community were given priority to experienced rather than novice supervisees, and professional development was regarded by the supervisors as equally important for novice and experienced workers. Comparisons were also made between the actual and preferred supervisory time allotment.