Efficient Estimation of a Distribution Function under Quadrant Dependence

LetX₁,X₂, ..., be real-valued random variables forming a strictly stationary sequence, and satisfying the basic requirement of being either pairwise positively quadrant dependent or pairwise negatively quadrant dependent. LetF^ be the marginal distribution function of theX_ips, which is estimated by the empirical distribution functionF_n and also by a smooth kernel-type estimateF_n, by means of the segmentX₁, ...,X_n. These estimates are compared on the basis of their mean squared errors (MSE). The main results of this paper are the following. Under certain regularity conditions, the optimal bandwidth (in the MSE sense) is determined, and is found to be the same as that in the independent identically distributed case. It is also shown thatn MSE(F_n(t)) andnMSE (F^_n(t)) tend to the same constant, asn→∞ so that one can not discriminate be tween the two estimates on the basis of the MSE. Next, ifi(n) = min {k∈{1, 2, ...}; MSE (F_k(t)) ≤ MSE (F_n(t))}, then it is proved thati(n)/n tends to 1, asn→∞. Thus, once again, one can not choose one estimate over the other in terms of their asymptotic relative efficiency. If, however, the squared bias ofF^_n(t) tends to 0 sufficiently fast, or equivalently, the bandwidthh_n satisfies the requirement thatnh³_n→ 0, asn→∞, it is shown that, for a suitable choice of the kernel, (i(n) ?n)/(nh_n) tends to a positive number, asn→∞ It follows that the deficiency ofF_n(t) with respect toF^_n(t),i(n) ?n, is substantial, and, actually, tends to ∞, asn→∞. In terms of deficiency, the smooth estimateF^_n(t) is preferable to the empirical distribution functionF_n(t)     

《海洋自由论》及其国际法思想

本文介绍了格老秀斯《海洋自由论》的主要内容及其蕴涵的国际法思想。格老秀斯以自然法理论为基础 ,从葡萄牙对东印度无主权、无权垄断海洋和海上航行权以及无权垄断国际贸易权等三个角度来阐释其海洋自由和贸易自由理论 ;其蕴涵的国际法思想主要有 :航行自由和捕鱼自由、贸易自由、无害通过权、人类共同财产及和平论与和平解决国际争端等。这些闪耀着国际法思想光芒的真知灼见对今天的国际海洋法制度有着深刻的影响。在强权政治仍然主宰世界的今天 ,重温格老秀斯的国际法思想 ,仍有着积极意义。     

异种自由刑数罪并罚规则研究

异种自由刑数罪并罚是在原有数罪并罚规则基础之上,针对多样化的犯罪现象与司法适用而设置的规则。根据我国现行《刑法》规定的异种自由刑并罚内容,吸收原则与并科原则各自蕴含着合理性依据。然而立足于整体数罪并罚的规则,此种规定却存在二者相互矛盾以及刑罚轻重的冲突,给理论研究与实践适用带来困扰。基于此,通过对域外异种自由刑数罪并罚规则的考察,借鉴其中折抵和限制加重原则的内容,提出我国异种自由刑并罚规则的改进建议:对有期徒刑和拘役刑的并罚采用综合折抵原则与限制加重原则的方式,而对有期徒刑、拘役刑和管制刑的并罚继续采用并科原则,从而更好地实现数罪并罚的适用。     

论人身自由权的暂时性法律保护——以行政强制措施检察监督为视角

人身自由权是人的最基本的、最起码的权利,公民人身自由权的保护通过宪法确认,由具体的法律制度落实。我国法律制度中缺乏对行政权剥夺人身自由权的权力制约,从而使得人身自由权遭到严重侵害。暂时性法律保护的权力制约性、暂时性、及时性（中止性）和救济中的救济能够实现人身自由权的保护。人身自由权遭受严重损害的现实和现有的监督机制不足以保障公民人身自由权,使得人身自由暂时性法律保护成为必然。十八届四中全会的政策要求、国外的成功经验、民法上的人身安全保护令的实践经验以及刑罚执行上的“刀下留人”的经验使得人身自由暂时性法律保护成为可能。暂时性人身自由的法律保护制度适用于行政行为。借鉴西方人身保护状制度、建立限制人身自由行为的事前报告审查和行政相对人请求保护制度,能够实现人身自由的暂时性法律保护。     

Approach and Positive Affect in Toddlerhood Predict Early Childhood Behavior Problems

The aim of the study was to examine the moderating role of positive affect on the relation between approach behaviors and adjustment outcomes. One hundred eleven toddlers participated in a laboratory assessment of approach and positive affect at 24 months. Behavior problems were reported by a parent in the fall of the child's kindergarten year. Results supported our hypotheses that children who displayed high approach and high positive affect in both non‐threat and low‐threat contexts were rated as higher in externalizing behavior problems. On the other hand, for children showing low positive affect, increases in approach in a moderate‐threat context lowered the risk of developing internalizing behavior problems. Implications for these findings are discussed, including methodological considerations of differences among eliciting contexts and advantages of separating positive affect and approach.     

A method for choosing the smoothing parameter in a semi-parametric model for detecting change-points in blood flow

In a smoothing spline model with unknown change-points, the choice of the smoothing parameter strongly influences the estimation of the change-point locations and the function at the change-points. In a tumor biology example, where change-points in blood flow in response to treatment were of interest, choosing the smoothing parameter based on minimizing generalized cross-validation (GCV) gave unsatisfactory estimates of the change-points. We propose a new method, aGCV, that re-weights the residual sum of squares and generalized degrees of freedom terms from GCV. The weight is chosen to maximize the decrease in the generalized degrees of freedom as a function of the weight value, while simultaneously minimizing aGCV as a function of the smoothing parameter and the change-points. Compared with GCV, simulation studies suggest that the aGCV method yields improved estimates of the change-point and the value of the function at the change-point.     

论建立大学生村官长效机制的政策导向

目前学术界对大学生村官计划的利弊得失尚未形成共识.从大学生村官计划的初衷和理论逻辑来看,其积极意义是不容置疑的,但现行的政策导向属于反向激励和短期激励,不利于建立大学生村官长效机制.正确的政策导向应当是:加强对大学生村官计划的正向激励和长期激励,从工业反哺农业、城市支持农村、统筹城乡关系的战略高度加大对大学生村官计划的经费投入,可以借鉴复员退伍军人安置制度和国家、省部级等课题规划制度对大学生村官给予经费支持；推行大学生村官村民“合同制”和任职年限弹性制度,鼓励永久任职,大学生村官配额应重点向老、少、边、贫农村地区倾斜.     

知识主体的突进与退隐:从笛卡尔到福柯

在西方哲学的知识论传统中,哲学家们倾向于把主体和客体理解为他们各自规范的知识观念所要求的必要功能。在古代哲学家们的思想中,自然和客体知识的可能性问题受到主要讨论,但没有明确地思考主体问题。近现代主体观的兴起所依赖的个体观念只是在后来的基督教思想中才进入哲学传统。以个体观念为先决条件的个体责任的观念已然现身于奥古斯丁的著作中。奥古斯丁对自我的直接诉求,天才般地开启了笛卡尔的"我思"观念的源头。由此形成的笛卡尔的知识主体,是一个抽象的认识论的假定,一个消极的旁观者。康德有限度地追随了笛卡尔的主体观念,但把笛卡尔的作为消极的旁观者的主体改造成了积极的行动者。康德在知识观上的这种"哥白尼式的"革命,构成了随后德国唯心主义主体观的基础。整体上看,康德之后的主体观存在着一种越来越向笛卡尔的主体观和古希腊的主体观隐退的明显倾向,及至海德格尔后期和后结构主义,这种倾向最终导致了向古希腊知识主体的全面回归。     

浅论大学学术自由实现的条件

学术自由是西方最经典、最核心的大学理念。我们要建设世界一流的大学,就必须借鉴这一理念,在大学里真正实现学术自由。     

A Boy’s Journey and the Journey to Freedom*

The journey to freedom is a literary genre that involves a realization of oppression, a decision to leave, a journey that is both physical and moral, a wilderness experience, a self‐reinvention, and, most importantly, a first person testimonial to the reality of oppression.