Local polynomial estimation of Poisson intensities in the presence of reporting delays

Summary.  The system for monitoring suicides in Hong Kong has considerable delays in reporting as the cause of death needs to be determined by a coroner's investigation. However, timely estimates of suicide rates are desirable to assist in the formulation of public health policies. This motivated us to develop a non-parametric procedure to estimate the intensity function of a Poisson process in the presence of reporting delays. We give closed form estimators of the Poisson intensity and the delay distribution, conduct simulation studies to evaluate the method proposed and derive their asymptotic properties. The method proposed is applied to estimate the intensity of suicide in Hong Kong.     

世界教育信息化发展及其经验

教育信息化是战后教育发展的最重要发展方向之一。世界教育信息化的发展经历了发端、进一步推进和迅速高涨的发展时期;在每一个阶段各国推进教育信息化的政策、措施和特点等方面都呈现出一些独自的特征。总结世界各国推进教育信息化的经验对我国教育信息化的发展具有重要的启发意义。     

Sampling Returns for Realized Variance Calculations: Tick Time or Transaction Time?

This article introduces a new model for transaction prices in the presence of market microstructure noise in order to study the properties of the price process on two different time scales, namely, transaction time where prices are sampled with every transaction and tick time where prices are sampled with every price change. Both sampling schemes have been used in the literature on realized variance, but a formal investigation into their properties has been lacking. Our empirical and theoretical results indicate that the return dynamics in transaction time are very different from those in tick time and the choice of sampling scheme can therefore have an important impact on the properties of realized variance. For RV we find that tick time sampling is superior to transaction time sampling in terms of mean-squared-error, especially when the level of noise, number of ticks, or the arrival frequency of efficient price moves is low. Importantly, we show that while the microstructure noise may appear close to IID in transaction time, in tick time it is highly dependent. As a result, bias correction procedures that rely on the noise being independent, can fail in tick time and are better implemented in transaction time.     

在创新中不断推进马克思主义中国化

创新是马克思主义具有生命力的根本体现,是不断推进马克思主义中国化的不竭动力。中国共产党人在领导中国人民进行革命、建设和改革的伟大实践中,创造性地把马克思主义与中国具体实践相结合,有效地推进了马克思主义的中国化,开创了中国革命和中国社会主义现代化建设的新道路,形成了丰硕的理论成果。面对新的使命和新的实践,我们必须用马克思主义中国化的最新理论成果指导新的实践。     

经济法教学实践性模式探讨

现行高校经济法教学模式一般只注重向学生传授基本的经济法学原理和相关法律知识,却忽视对学生实践能力、操作能力和思考能力的培养,造成教学和现实的脱节,同时也面临着学科自身发展瓶颈与学生就业前景暗淡的尴尬.针对经济法课程新、专、广的特点,本着培养学生经济法法律意识和法律实践能力的目的,从教学环节入手,以实践性理念为指导来设定教学目标、安排教学内容、运用多样化的教学方法和手段,构建经济法教学的实践性模式,不失为一条出路.     

大学生课外科技活动的实践探索

大学生课外科技活动是科技素质教育的重要环节。其重要性和现实针对性在于,科技知识不等于科学素质,知识与创新能力是不同概念,科学素质(思维、方法、精神、创新能力)均靠后天养成,而第二课堂是重要形式和途径。活动主要内容包括科技报告、科技阅读和科技实践。应成立领导小组或指导中心,学分制管理规定增加“科技活动”项目,建立激励机制并保证运作经费,以建章立制;并努力形成团组织牵头,院(系)据专业特点独立运作,大学生科协自发组织的工作格局;推进大学生课外科技活动的制度化与实践的丰富多样性。     

Bayesian analysis of elapsed times in continuous‐time Markov chains

The authors consider Bayesian analysis for continuous‐time Markov chain models based on a conditional reference prior. For such models, inference of the elapsed time between chain observations depends heavily on the rate of decay of the prior as the elapsed time increases. Moreover, improper priors on the elapsed time may lead to improper posterior distributions. In addition, an infinitesimal rate matrix also characterizes this class of models. Experts often have good prior knowledge about the parameters of this matrix. The authors show that the use of a proper prior for the rate matrix parameters together with the conditional reference prior for the elapsed time yields a proper posterior distribution. The authors also demonstrate that, when compared to analyses based on priors previously proposed in the literature, a Bayesian analysis on the elapsed time based on the conditional reference prior possesses better frequentist properties. The type of prior thus represents a better default prior choice for estimation software.     

Gay Affirmative Practice: A Model for Social Work Practice with Gay,Lesbian, and Bisexual Youth

Gay affirmative practice has recently been introduced into the social work literature as a culturally sensitive model for working with gay, lesbian, and bisexual (GLB) adults, however, this model has rarely been applied to practice with GLB youth. In this article, the authors review the literature to present the main tenets of gay affirmative practice, outline the challenges that GLB youth face, and delineate the environmental and individual strengths that can be enhanced to promote well-being. The authors then apply the gay affirmative practice model to GLB youth, offering concrete information about the specific knowledge, attitudes, and skills that social workers should acquire to better serve the unique, yet diverse, needs of GLB youth.     

Unmanaging public relations: Reclaiming complex practice in pursuit of global consent

Globalisation raises numerous problems for contemporary public relations theory. In a world where the geographic reach of organisations routinely spans cultures and nation states and where issues of culture, economics and politics are inseparably intertwined, the discipline of public relations has established a distance from the immediacy of the marketplace, failed to fully engage with discussions of culture. By taking a relentlessly managerialist approach, theorists have also failed to recognise the true complexity of public relations practice and this has marginalised aspects of practice that, though nebulous and intangible, are none the less real. This paper argues that attention needs to shift towards the complexities of practice, in order to recapture and theorise a distinctive occupational field with the aim of better understanding the relationship between universal humanising principles, on the one hand, and the purposive demands of capital, on the other; the attempt to theorise how public relations makes profitable sense in society. The paper was prompted by the author's reflections on auto-ethnographic research into the public relations field, part of an ongoing research project.     

论高等师范教育实践课程的变革

高师现行沿用的教育实践课程制度存在课时总量不足 ,学科课程与实践课程比例失衡 ;以教育实习为主 ,形式单一、实践与理论隔离、内涵缺失等问题。由此出发 ,教育实践课程改革应在以下层面进行 :增加教育实践课程课时总量 ,使学科课程与实践课程取得动态平衡 ;形成多阶段、多形式的教育实践内容体系 ;整合理论与实践 ,创生新的教育实践模式 ;更新评价理念 ,合理运用多种评价方式。同时 ,教育实践课程改革还要特别关注硬件和软件建设。