Uncertainty Analysis for Computer Model Projections of Hurricane Losses

Projecting losses associated with hurricanes is a complex and difficult undertaking that is wrought with uncertainties. Hurricane Charley, which struck southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, illustrates the uncertainty of forecasting damages from these storms. Due to shifts in the track and the rapid intensification of the storm, real-time estimates grew from 2 to 3 billion dollars in losses late on August 12 to a peak of 50 billion dollars for a brief time as the storm appeared to be headed for the Tampa Bay area. The storm hit the resort areas of Charlotte Harbor near Punta Gorda and then went on to Orlando in the central part of the state, with early poststorm estimates converging on a damage estimate in the 28 to 31 billion dollars range. Comparable damage to central Florida had not been seen since Hurricane Donna in 1960. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has recognized the role of computer models in projecting losses from hurricanes. The FCHLPM established a professional team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of computer models developed by several different companies in the United States that seek to have their models approved for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. The team's members represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics, and wind and structural engineering. An important part of the auditing process requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be performed with the applicant's proprietary model. To influence future such analyses, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been completed for loss projections arising from use of a Holland B parameter hurricane wind field model. Uncertainty analysis quantifies the expected percentage reduction in the uncertainty of wind speed and loss that is attributable to each of the input variables.     

谈桥梁的技术美

桥梁技术美已成为当前工程师日益关注的课题。理解桥梁技术的产生及其组成因素;现代桥梁设计需要设计师具有美学修养;桥梁方案的设计要有建筑师的参与,才能更好地体现桥梁内在的美学价值。     

Fuzzy K-means clustering models for triangular fuzzy time trajectories

We focus our attention on the classification of fuzzy time trajectories with triangular membership function, described by a given set of individuals. To this purpose, we adopt a fullyinformational approach, explicitly recognizing the informational nature shared by the ingredients of the classification procedure: the observed data (Empirical Information) and the classification model (Theoretical Information). In particular, by supposing that the informational paradigm has a fuzzy nature, we suggest three fuzzy clustering models allowing the classification of the triangular fuzzy time trajectories, based on the analysis of the cross sectional and/or longitudinal characteristics of their components (centers and spreads). Two applicative examples are illustrated.     

试论培训后勤职工与发挥后勤德育功能

高校后勤具有很强的德育功能。培训高校后勤职工具有多方面的重要性。高校后勤工作具有繁杂性,微利服务性和部分福利性等特点。队伍和素质参差不齐、年龄老化、学历偏低、劳动技术较弱和部分职工打工仔意识强,主人翁意识弱等现状表现出了搞好后勤职工培训的必要性和紧迫性。因此,要对后勤职工搞好四个方面的培训,通过四条途径发挥其德育功能。     

试论美术教学的深化与互动

分析了目前的学生状况和美术教学存在的问题,提出改进美术课的教学内容,发挥美术课应有的审美教育功能,在教与学中互动,提高教学质量。     

中国古代足球的发展与兴衰

本文采用文献综述法,试图从蹴鞠的起源、功能极其兴衰来研究制约蹴鞠运动发展的规律,并让我们从一个崭新的角度来了解中国古代各时期的思潮演变的进程,从而继承和发扬其优秀的精华部分,剔除其违反客观规律的糟粕部分,真正做到“古为今用”。     

Local dependence estimation using semiparametric archimedean copulas

The authors define a new semiparametric Archimedean copula family which has a flexible dependence structure. The generator of the family is a local interpolation of existing generators. It has locally‐defined dependence parameters. The authors present a penalized constrained least‐squares method to estimate and smooth these parameters. They illustrate the flexibility of their dependence model in a bi‐variate survival example.     

克隆技术对人类社会的影响

本文分析了克隆技术对社会发展的积极作用和消极影响 ,分析了“Clone”技术的必然发展趋势 ,预言了“Clone”技术对人类社会的深层影响及对策 ,提示人类应用该项技术时要趋利避害     

知识型企业结构、特征及报酬递增效应分析

在市场经济条件下,知识已经成为企业竞争力的源泉.知识经济、知识管理、知识型企业等思想被越来越多的人所接受.和传统企业相比,知识型企业的结构及特征有它特定的一面.文章在分析知识型企业内外部结构的基础上,对知识型企业的特征进行了分析,进而探讨了由其特征所决定的知识型企业生产函数及报酬递增效应.     

社区卫生服务中心与医院手术费用的比较研究

目的:比较社区卫生服务中心及各级医院常见手术费用;社区卫生服务中心手术是否便捷、低耗,有无保留的必要。方法:调研南京市社区卫生服务中心及各级医院常见手术的单病种费用,社区卫生服务中心与各级医院的费用做统计分析比较。结果:社区卫生服务中心单病种手术平均住院费用明显低于与各级医院。结论:从经济学的角度分析,各级医院手术费用差别很大,在规范和安全的前提下,社区卫生服务中心保留基本的手术功能是符合社区居民需求和社区卫生服务自身发展需要的。