Bayes prediction of number of failures in weibull samples

This work is concerned with the Bayesian prediction problem of the number of components which will fail in a future time interval, when the failure times are Weibull distributed. Both the 1-sample and the 2-sample prediction problems are dealed with, and some choices of the prior densities on the distribution parameters are discussed which are relatively easy to work with and allow different degrees of knowledge on the failure mechanism to be incorporated in the predictive procedure. Useful relations between the predictive distribution on the number of future failures and the predictive distribution on the future failure times are derived. Numerical examples are also given.     

The neyman accuracy and the wolfowitz accuracy of the stein type confidence interval for the disturbance variance

In this paper we consider the Neyman accuracy and the Wolfowitz accuracy of the Stein type improved confidence interval I?_S for the disturbance variance in a linear regression model. The Neyman accuracy is a measure related to the unbiasedness of a confidence interval, and the Wolfowitz accuracy is related to the closeness of the endpoints to the true parameter. We show that I?_S is not unbiased and give some numerical results for the Neyman accuracy. As for the Wolfowitz accuracy we derive the sufficient condition for I?_S to improve on the usual confidence interval under this criterion and show numerically that a large degree of improvement can be obtainted.     

Detection of outliers in the exponential distribution based on prediction

In this paper, we present a test procedure to detect outliers in the one-parameter exponential distribution based on prediction. The distribution of the test statistic is obtained. The proposed test can be used to detect more than one outlier and the required percentage points can be easily determined. Furthermore, the test provides a simple procedure to detect whether a given set of data is free from outliers or spurious observations.     

随钻声波测井数据实时压缩算法

针对随钻测井信号低传输速率特性，结合随钻声波测井时数据量大的实际，研究了波列数据实时在线压缩算法。在分析随钻声波测井信号特征的基础上，建立了基线和波形相结合的分段压缩     

基于变量轮换法的支持向量机在隧道围岩变形预测中的应用

采用变量轮换法对支持向量机(SVM)参数进行优化处理，结合时间序列分析理论，建立起隧道围岩变形时间序列非线性模型，并以此对隧道围岩变形进行预测。结果表明：改进的支持向量机具有简单、方便、实时等特点，对围岩后续变形预报准确，可科学地指导现场监测和施工建设。     

人工智能方法在旅游预测中的应用及评析

对旅游需求预测的研究始于20世纪60年代，绝大多数研究成果出现于80年代以后。而对此类文献进行整理和研究的成果相对较少，且有明显的缺陷：一是研究深度不够，仅仅是对近期论文的简单罗列；二是由于受研究时间的局限性，未能涉及最新的研究方法。为此，系统地论述诸如粗糙集理论、遗传算法、时间序列方法等，并通过比较得出：人工智能方法在旅游预测方面的应用尽管取得了较好的效果，但也有其自身的缺陷，在以后的研究中应发挥各种分析方法的优点，根据实际分析对象的具体情况选择合适的分析方法，这样才能收到事半功倍的效果。     

Bootstrapping data with multiple levels of variation

The authors consider general estimators for the mean and variance parameters in the random effect model and in the transformation model for data with multiple levels of variation. They show that these estimators have different distributions under the two models unless all the variables have Gaussian distributions. They investigate the asymptotic properties of bootstrap procedures designed for the two models. They also report simulation results and illustrate the bootstraps using data on red spruce trees.     

PREDICTION OF THE FINITE POPULATION DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION UNDER GAUSSIAN SUPERPOPULATION MODELS

This article considers optimal prediction of the finite population distribution function under Gaussian superpopulation models, which allows auxiliary prior information to be incorporated into the estimation process. Large sample approximations for the variance of the optimal predictors are derived in some special important cases. A small scale Monte Carlo study illustrates comparisons between the optimal predictor and some others which are proposed in the literature. The conclusion is that the optimal predictor can be considerably more efficient in situations where the normal superpopulation model is adequate.     

刑事搜查立法精密化比较研究

刑事搜查制度既关系到刑事侦查权的正当行使，又关系到被搜查人的人权保护，各国立法者都要在打击犯罪和保障人权之间进行艰难的价值选择，因此西方法治国家的立法者设计了一套精密科学的机制。然而我国关于刑事搜查制度方面的立法粗糙，人权保障不足。借鉴域外经验对我国刑事搜查制度予以全面改造，才是明智之举。     

两点边值问题的一种高精度差分方法

从中心差分公式出发，利用二阶微分的四阶差分公式，对两点边值问题得到了一种四阶精度的差分格式，该方法仅涉及中心点及相邻网格点，具有四阶精度，并且由所提格式得到的线性方程组是三对角线型的，可以直接采用追赶法进行求解，数值算例的结果表明，该格式比以往的格式具有更高的精度，并且计算简便。