裁员视角下人力资源的有效激励与代理成本分析

在假定产出可以观测的条件下,构造含裁员概率的企业与员工之间的委托-代理激励模型,把企业的裁员概率与员工的实际业绩结合起来,针对员工素质类型是对称信息和非对称信息,分别探讨含产出-工资合同的企业激励机制设计,比较两种不同信息结构下不同激励效应,分析非对称信息下实施合同的代理成本.     

时间贝叶斯网络及其概率推理

针对贝叶斯网络应用中出现的循环和动态问题,研究贝叶斯网络的时间扩展.给出了时间贝叶斯网络的定义;探讨了时间贝叶斯网络中环的存在合理性判断问题;给出了时间贝叶斯网络的概率推理算法,应用示例说明了方法的可行性.     

A formulation of the concept of probability based on the use of experimental devices

This paper sets out to identify the abilities that a person needs to be able to successfully use an experimental device, such as a probability wheel or balls in an urn, for the elicitation of subjective probabilities. It is assumed that the successful use of the device requires that the person elicits unique probability values that obey the standard probability laws. This leads to a definition of probability based on the idea of the similarity between the likeliness of events and this concept is naturally extended to the idea that probabilities have strengths, which relates to information about the likeliness of an event that lies beyond a simple probability value. The latter notion is applied to the problem of explaining the Ellsberg paradox. To avoid the definition of probability being circular, probabilities are defined such that they depend on the choice of a reference set of events R which, in simple cases, corresponds to the raw outcomes produced by using an experimental device. However, it is shown that even when the events in R are considered as having an “equal chance” of occurring, the values and/or strengths of probabilities can still be affected by the choice of the set R.     

A comparison of risk transfer strategies for a portfolio of life annuities based on RORAC

This paper aims to compare different reinsurance arrangements in order to reduce the longevity and financial risk originated by a life insurer while managing a portfolio of annuities policies. Linear and nonlinear reinsurance strategies as well as swap like agreements are evaluated via a discrete-time actuarial risk model. Specifically, longevity dynamics are represented by Lee–Carter type models, while interest rate is modeled by Cox–Ingersoll–Ross model. The reinsurance strategies effectiveness is evaluated according to the Return on Risk Adjusted Capital under a ruin probability constrain.     

A probabilistic clustering method for data elements with normal distributed attributes

By considering uncertainty in the attributes common methods cannot be applicable in data clustering. In the recent years, many researches have been done by considering fuzzy concepts to interpolate the uncertainty. But when data elements attributes have probabilistic distributions, the uncertainty cannot be interpreted by fuzzy theory. In this article, a new concept for clustering of elements with predefined probabilistic distributions for their attributes has been proposed, so each observation will be as a member of a cluster with special probability. Two metaheuristic algorithms have been applied to deal with the problem. Squared Euclidean distance type has been considered to calculate the similarity of data elements to cluster centers. The sensitivity analysis shows that the proposed approach will converge to the classic approaches results when the variance of each point tends to be zero. Moreover, numerical analysis confirms that the proposed approach is efficient in clustering of probabilistic data.     

多波段光学探测系统的探测概率研究

针对光学联合探测子系统探测概率的不同特点,提出一种新的系统工作模式,使系统的最终探测概率有较大提高。当子系统的探测概率均比较低时,直接对子系统的探测数据进行融合,可以获得较高探测概率;当各子系统探测概率相差较大时,可先对探测数据进行选择,然后再进行数据融合,这样可以在总探测概率减小不大的情况下,使虚警概率明显降低。     

初等概率论中的收敛性注记

通过介绍初等概率论中的四种收敛性 ,揭示了它们之间的相互关系     

运用核Fisher鉴别分析和MPM分类器的入侵检测

为了提高分类器的正确率和减少训练时间,将特征提取技术与分类算法结合,提出了一种基于核Fisher鉴别分析和最小极大概率机算法的入侵检测算法。利用核Fisher鉴别分析技术提取关键特征,运用最小极大概率机对提取特征后的数据进行分类,采用离线数据集KDDCUP99进行实验。实验结果表明,该算法是可行和有效的,使分类性能和训练时间都得到了提高。     

Exact average coverage probabilities and confidence coefficients of confidence intervals for discrete distributions

For a confidence interval (L(X),U(X)) of a parameter θ in one-parameter discrete distributions, the coverage probability is a variable function of θ. The confidence coefficient is the infimum of the coverage probabilities, inf  _θ P _θ (θ∈(L(X),U(X))). Since we do not know which point in the parameter space the infimum coverage probability occurs at, the exact confidence coefficients are unknown. Beside confidence coefficients, evaluation of a confidence intervals can be based on the average coverage probability. Usually, the exact average probability is also unknown and it was approximated by taking the mean of the coverage probabilities at some randomly chosen points in the parameter space. In this article, methodologies for computing the exact average coverage probabilities as well as the exact confidence coefficients of confidence intervals for one-parameter discrete distributions are proposed. With these methodologies, both exact values can be derived.     

CreditRisk+模型采用Poisson分布所产生的经济资本计量误差分析

本文对CreditRisk+模型采用Poisson分布近似债务人违约事件分布这一关键步骤进行系统研究。首先分析了Poisson分布在CreditRisk+模型中的作用,并从理论上证明了采用Poisson分布作为债务人违约事件分布的近似,会导致CreditRisk+模型计算出来的经济资本高估贷款组合的实际风险水平;然后以债务人违约事件服从两点分布并采用蒙特卡罗模拟计算出来的经济资本为参照值,对债务人违约概率的大小与这一近似所引起的经济资本计量误差率进行了敏感性试验,发现为将这一近似所引起的误差率控制在10%的范围内,债务人违约概率的取值不应超过0.2。