儒家“义—利”价值结构与西方“财富”价值结构比较研究简

通过中国儒家和西方经济价值结构的比较研究，发现儒家以“义一利”为价值结构模型，西方以“财富”为价值结构模型。儒家价值结构的基本特征是“义体利用”，表现方式是：强国的道义在于顺天时、尽地利、忠人和；安国的道义在于民朴民富；治国的道义在于蓄储俭用。西方价值结构的基本特征是“利体义用”，表现方式是：鼓励获取财富、财富规则和财富责任。儒家“义一利”价值结构与西方“财富”价值结构是两种不同的价值评判话语体系，在中国现代“义利共体”的价值结构建构中，儒家价值结构提供着人文精神基础，西方价值结构提供着物质文明建设可资借鉴的经验。     

Empirical Likelihood Inference for the Rao‐Hartley‐Cochran Sampling Design

The Hartley‐Rao‐Cochran sampling design is an unequal probability sampling design which can be used to select samples from finite populations. We propose to adjust the empirical likelihood approach for the Hartley‐Rao‐Cochran sampling design. The approach proposed intrinsically incorporates sampling weights, auxiliary information and allows for large sampling fractions. It can be used to construct confidence intervals. In a simulation study, we show that the coverage may be better for the empirical likelihood confidence interval than for standard confidence intervals based on variance estimates. The approach proposed is simple to implement and less computer intensive than bootstrap. The confidence interval proposed does not rely on re‐sampling, linearization, variance estimation, design‐effects or joint inclusion probabilities.     

An Agent‐Based Model for Pathogen Persistence and Cross‐Contamination Dynamics in a Food Facility

We used an agent‐based modeling (ABM) framework and developed a mathematical model to explain the complex dynamics of microbial persistence and spread within a food facility and to aid risk managers in identifying effective mitigation options. The model explicitly considered personal hygiene practices by food handlers as well as their activities and simulated a spatially explicit dynamic system representing complex interaction patterns among food handlers, facility environment, and foods. To demonstrate the utility of the model in a decision‐making context, we created a hypothetical case study and used it to compare different risk mitigation strategies for reducing contamination and spread of Listeria monocytogenes in a food facility. Model results indicated that areas with no direct contact with foods (e.g., loading dock and restroom) can serve as contamination niches and recontaminate areas that have direct contact with food products. Furthermore, food handlers’ behaviors, including, for example, hygiene and sanitation practices, can impact the persistence of microbial contamination in the facility environment and the spread of contamination to prepared foods. Using this case study, we also demonstrated benefits of an ABM framework for addressing food safety in a complex system in which emergent system‐level responses are predicted using a bottom‐up approach that observes individual agents (e.g., food handlers) and their behaviors. Our model can be applied to a wide variety of pathogens, food commodities, and activity patterns to evaluate efficacy of food‐safety management practices and quantify contamination reductions associated with proposed mitigation strategies in food facilities.     

Agent‐Based Recovery Model for Seismic Resilience Evaluation of Electrified Communities

In this article, an agent‐based framework to quantify the seismic resilience of an electric power supply system (EPSS) and the community it serves is presented. Within the framework, the loss and restoration of the EPSS power generation and delivery capacity and of the power demand from the served community are used to assess the electric power deficit during the damage absorption and recovery processes. Damage to the components of the EPSS and of the community‐built environment is evaluated using the seismic fragility functions. The restoration of the community electric power demand is evaluated using the seismic recovery functions. However, the postearthquake EPSS recovery process is modeled using an agent‐based model with two agents, the EPSS Operator and the Community Administrator. The resilience of the EPSS–community system is quantified using direct, EPSS‐related, societal, and community‐related indicators. Parametric studies are carried out to quantify the influence of different seismic hazard scenarios, agent characteristics, and power dispatch strategies on the EPSS–community seismic resilience. The use of the agent‐based modeling framework enabled a rational formulation of the postearthquake recovery phase and highlighted the interaction between the EPSS and the community in the recovery process not quantified in resilience models developed to date. Furthermore, it shows that the resilience of different community sectors can be enhanced by different power dispatch strategies. The proposed agent‐based EPSS–community system resilience quantification framework can be used to develop better community and infrastructure system risk governance policies.     

劳动合同法视域下福建自贸区弹性用工研究

弹性用工是一种灵活的用工方式，是实现人力资源最优配置的有效途径。我国对弹性用工不合理的制度设计，限制了弹性用工效用的发挥，这些制度包括：劳动合同期限制度、劳务派遣制度、特殊工时制度、非全日制用工制度。     

Sample size re‐estimation incorporating prior information on a nuisance parameter

Prior information is often incorporated informally when planning a clinical trial. Here, we present an approach on how to incorporate prior information, such as data from historical clinical trials, into the nuisance parameter–based sample size re‐estimation in a design with an internal pilot study. We focus on trials with continuous endpoints in which the outcome variance is the nuisance parameter. For planning and analyzing the trial, frequentist methods are considered. Moreover, the external information on the variance is summarized by the Bayesian meta‐analytic‐predictive approach. To incorporate external information into the sample size re‐estimation, we propose to update the meta‐analytic‐predictive prior based on the results of the internal pilot study and to re‐estimate the sample size using an estimator from the posterior. By means of a simulation study, we compare the operating characteristics such as power and sample size distribution of the proposed procedure with the traditional sample size re‐estimation approach that uses the pooled variance estimator. The simulation study shows that, if no prior‐data conflict is present, incorporating external information into the sample size re‐estimation improves the operating characteristics compared to the traditional approach. In the case of a prior‐data conflict, that is, when the variance of the ongoing clinical trial is unequal to the prior location, the performance of the traditional sample size re‐estimation procedure is in general superior, even when the prior information is robustified. When considering to include prior information in sample size re‐estimation, the potential gains should be balanced against the risks.     

The cost‐effectiveness of UK parenting programmes for preventing children's behaviour problems – a review of the evidence

Parenting programmes are widely used in the UK, promoted in policy documents as a cost‐effective way for children's services to address behaviour problems and thereby the longer‐term costs associated with conduct disorders, particularly antisocial behaviour and criminality. To explore whether these programmes are a cost‐effective component of family intervention, this paper examines evidence from cost‐effectiveness studies based on randomized controlled trials, modelling studies estimating longer‐term costs and outcomes, and studies estimating costs of UK parenting programmes, including evidence from routine practice. Findings indicate that parenting programmes have the potential to be cost‐saving in the long term; however, gaps in the evidence include: lack of follow‐up of families who drop out of programmes, absence of control groups in longer‐term follow‐ups, and little information about costs and effects of programmes in routine practice. The size of savings resulting from implementation of effective parenting programmes will depend on the extent to which families likely to be most costly to society attend and experience lasting benefit.     

Micro‐investment perspective and the potential of the universal basic income

The article evaluates prospects of the Basic Income (BI) as a development policy tool. While BI is a relatively new initiative within development policy, the article argues that it should be seen as a serious option in the future, given the changing geography of poverty and the findings from existing cash transfer schemes. The analysis is carried out as a synthesis of existing findings on BI pilot programmes, along with cash transfer instruments more generally. While not including new empirical data, the synthesis allows preliminary estimates on the likely impacts of abolishing conditioning and targeting in cash transfer schemes. Particular attention is paid to the notion of micro‐investment and the psychological conditions of micro‐investment.     

通过试点与实践推进制度创新——以L县检察院附条件不起诉的试点为样本

中国刑事诉讼制度正在发生深刻的变迁,现代性制度正在实践中艰难形成。L县检察院关于附条件不起诉制度的探索与实践,便体现了这种制度变迁的方式与实践创新。地方性司法机构的"试点性改革"与"试错性试验",无疑推动了中国刑事诉讼制度的发展。应保持一种开放的胸襟与开放的心态,通过实践中的不断试点改革来确认与完善新的制度设置,以走出一条推进中国式法治建设有效、成功的道路。