货币完全自由兑换对价格影响分析

传统购买力平价理论认为价格决定汇率,但汇率实际对价格也有反作用,运用利率平价理论,均衡条件下价格需遵循一定原则变动。同时考虑经济体系中实体经济与货币经济,商品贸易对汇率决定具有基础性作用。资本自由流动时资金量无限和有限对本国价格造成的影响不同,其中部分数量关系可以通过原有汇率理论得出,但价格调整过程和机制仍需结合现代金融理论进行研究,这也是一国实现货币完全自由兑换应考虑的问题,综合运用不同汇率理论分析实际问题是研究汇率时的可行方法。     

THE CASE FOR PARITY AND BIRTH-ORDER STATISTICS

Parity refers to the number of (live) births that a woman (or man) has had. Birth order refers to whether a birth is the first, second, third or higher‐order birth of the parent. In the context of low and shifting fertility, parity and birth‐order statistics are becoming increasingly important for understanding fertility trends and patterns, for policy, and for carrying out projections of future fertility. In Australia, the main sources of demographic data are birth, death and marriage registers, and the five‐yearly national census. Both the birth registers and the census are ideally placed to collect data required to calculate parity and birth‐order statistics. However not all Australian states and territories collect or code the necessary information in the birth registers, and the parity question ‘For each female, how many babies has she ever had?’ is only asked every second census; that is, once every 10 years. In this paper, we outline the importance and uses of parity and birth‐order statistics. We discuss the Australian data available at present and their gaps and shortcomings. We then describe the ‘gold standard’ of parity and birth‐order statistics and how Australia can achieve this standard through some minor changes to the data collection process.     

多进制LDPC码混合重传联合设计与性能分析

以下一代数字卫星战术数据链通信系统为背景,研究了低复杂度、简单实用多进制低密度校验(LDPC)码与混合自动请求重传(HARQ)技术的联合优化,并且与传统的二进制LDPC码HARQ方案进行了误帧率和吞吐量性能比较。基于C 的链路级仿真结果表明,多进制LDPC码HARQ技术能提供明显的性能改善,尤其是包合并和部分增益型HARQ。此外,多进制LDPC码HARQ在复杂度增加不大的情况下,可提供比二进制LDPC码HARQ更可观的性能增益。     

A segmented regression model for event history data: an application to the fertility patterns in Italy

We propose a segmented discrete-time model for the analysis of event history data in demographic research. Through a unified regression framework, the model provides estimates of the effects of explanatory variables and jointly accommodates flexibly non-proportional differences via segmented relationships. The main appeal relies on ready availability of parameters, changepoints, and slopes, which may provide meaningful and intuitive information on the topic. Furthermore, specific linear constraints on the slopes may also be set to investigate particular patterns. We investigate the intervals between cohabitation and first childbirth and from first to second childbirth using individual data for Italian women from the Second National Survey on Fertility. The model provides insights into dramatic decrease of fertility experienced in Italy, in that it detects a ‘common’ tendency in delaying the onset of childbearing for the more recent cohorts and a ‘specific’ postponement strictly depending on the educational level and age at cohabitation.     

开放经济条件下中国宏观经济模型的再研究

运用动态购买力平价理论对蒙代尔-弗莱明模型进行了修正,建立了开放经济条件下中国宏观经济模型,然后列举中国经济的两个实际问题,分别采用传统的蒙代尔-弗莱明模型和修正后的蒙代尔-弗莱明模型进行分析,对修正后的M-F模型的有效性进行了验证,结果表明修正后的M-F模型是符合中国现实的。     

我国小麦期货市场价格泡沫的实证研究——以强筋小麦期货为例

为研究我国小麦期货市场是否存在价格泡沫,采用超常易变性方差分析和三分法,以强筋小麦期货市场的历史数据为样本,对我国小麦期货的泡沫度进行了实证分析。结果表明：我国小麦期货市场长期内不存在价格泡沫,短期内存在,并且近几年我国小麦期货市场的价格泡沫度呈逐渐降低趋势。同时依据价格泡沫的发展阶段划分了不同性质小麦期货价格泡沫的区间。     

多维奇偶校验乘积码性能分析

相对于Turbo码,乘积码在高码率情况下具有性能优势,且无错误平层,其应用广泛。以奇偶校验码为分量码的乘积码译码算法简单,可适应不同的数据大小要求。通过分析多维奇偶校验乘积码的码多样性,得出高信噪比下该码的性能公式;计算机仿真表明:该性能公式结果与最大似然译码算法及迭代译码算法性能相符。通过分析码率、维数、分量码码长等参数对码性能的影响,得出码率、维数相同时,码性能相近;码率相同、维数不同时,高维乘积码具有性能优势。该结果为码参数选择提供依据,可在相同的信息传输有效性下,选择性能更好的码。     

Which women stop at one child in Australia?

The decline in fertility in Australia in the 1990s reflected both decreased first-order birth rates and decreased second-order birth rates (Kippen 2004). Whilst childlessness has been studied extensively, little attention has been paid to the progression from one to two children. This study analyses which women stop at one child using data from 1,809 parous 40–54 year olds from Wave 1 of the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey. Important early lifecourse predictors of whether a woman stops her childbearing at one child are shown to be a woman s country of birth, highest level and type of schooling, and her father s occupation. A woman s marital status and her age at the time of the first birth are also shown to be significant predictors of her likelihood of not progressing to a second birth. The causes of trends over time are discussed.     

旅游业在线搜索引擎评价体系的建立及分析

针对旅游搜索引擎高度专业化、目标性强等特点,在引入旅游搜索引擎评价特色指标和借鉴通用搜索引擎评价指标的基础上,建立了以“网络影响因子”和“比价度”指标为核心、着重于检索结果内容质量评价的特色指标集,同时利用加权优序图法确定指标权重,从而建立一个较为客观、准确、操作性强的旅游搜索引擎检索性能的评价指标体系,为我国旅游业搜索引擎的发展方向的确定提供了理论依据。     

用孩次递进比模拟“全面二孩”政策调整初期的生育行为--以湖北省为例

以2014年湖北省卫生和计划生育委员会提供的包括“单独”、“双独”方面的数据为基础,描述了生育政策调整下被压抑的生育潜能释放的规律性和用孩次递进比的方法预测“全面二孩”政策调整初期的生育行为,与意愿分析方法相互比照,丰富了当下生育政策下生育行为预测研究。从分析结果可以看出,假定2016年“全面二孩”生育政策调整,湖北省第一年内会新增二孩出生量52621人,占湖北省2014年总出生量的7?41％;三年内最低会新增139262人的二孩生育量。城乡对比发现,农村新增二孩生育占到将近六成,且由抢生而导致的堆积主要集中在农村,40岁后的高龄抢生情况不严重。