Development of a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Human Salmonellosis Through Household Consumption of Fresh Minced Pork Meat in Belgium

A quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) according to the Codex Alimentarius Principles is conducted to evaluate the risk of human salmonellosis through household consumption of fresh minced pork meat in Belgium. The quantitative exposure assessment is carried out by building a modular risk model, called the METZOON-model, which covers the pork production from farm to fork. In the METZOON-model, the food production pathway is split up in six consecutive modules: (1) primary production, (2) transport and lairage, (3) slaughterhouse, (4) postprocessing, (5) distribution and storage, and (6) preparation and consumption. All the modules are developed to resemble as closely as possible the Belgian situation, making use of the available national data. Several statistical refinements and improved modeling techniques are proposed. The model produces highly realistic results. The baseline predicted number of annual salmonellosis cases is 20,513 ( SD 9061.45). The risk is estimated higher for the susceptible population (estimate  4.713 × 10⁻⁵; SD 1.466 × 10⁻⁵  ) compared to the normal population  (estimate 7.704 × 10⁻⁶; SD 5.414 × 10⁻⁶)  and is mainly due to undercooking and to a smaller extent to cross-contamination in the kitchen via cook's hands.     

Micro‐level dynamics of social assistance receipt: Evidence from four European countries

This study investigated the monthly dynamics of social assistance benefit receipt – in particular the incidence of long‐term benefit receipt – in four European countries: Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Norway and Sweden. The analysis is based on four separate administrative panel data sets, each covering the 96‐month period from January 2001 to December 2008. Benefit dynamics were found to vary considerably across countries. In the two Nordic countries, long‐term benefit receipt was found to be a rare exception. Most recipients, however, had multiple spells and the majority of benefit leavers returned to benefits within a few months of leaving. In Luxembourg and The Netherlands, long‐term benefit receipt was frequent, but benefit leavers were much less likely to return to benefit receipt after exit. The total duration of benefit receipt per individual across spells was two to three times as high in The Netherlands and Luxembourg as in Norway and Sweden.     

Girlz II women: Age‐grading,language change and stylistic variation

Informed by abstract models of language change or stability over time, we present a longitudinal study of two African American females, first interviewed as teenagers, and re‐recorded twenty years later. As teenagers, they used morpho‐syntactic features of AAVE voraciously. But as working adults, these women distance themselves from their teenage activities and social networks, and display a considerably reduced vernacular usage that accords with their articulated concern to get ahead. The diachronic interpretation that best characterizes their transformation is age‐grading rather than generational change, since change at the individual level is accompanied by stability at the community level. The picture is complicated by intermediate recordings showing that one of the speakers is a stylistic chameleon, capable since her teenage years of varying copula absence rates depending on addressee, topic, and projected persona. But the age‐grading interpretation of change at the individual level remains valid based on the evidence of her reduced use of habitual be2, and third singular present tense –s absence. The case highlights the importance of paying more attention to stylistic variation and including more than two time points in sociolinguistic studies of change in real and apparent time.     

类生产函数企业价值链管理模型研究

本文从价值链的一些本质特征出发,借鉴生产函数的原理与形式,提出了一种新的价值链模型——类生产函数价值链管理,证明了类生产函数的一些重要性质,论述了此模型对企业价值链的管理与优化过程。最后进行了实例分析,分析过程及结果表明,该模型能够较好地实现价值链的优化与管理。     

光度法同时测定磷和硅的研究

用钼蓝法分别测定磷和硅的含量多有报导［１］［２］［３］，但用该法对其进行同时测定未见报导．本文探讨了用钼蓝法同时测定磷和硅，确定了其测定条件．本法具有简便、快速、不需特殊试剂等特点，可用于水等试样中磷和硅的同时测定．     

Fitting Hierarchical Holographic Modeling into the Theory of Scenario Structuring and a Resulting Refinement to the Quantitative Definition of Risk

A point of view is suggested from which the Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM) method can be seen as one more method within the Theory of Scenario Structuring (TSS), which is that part of Quantitative Risk Assessment having to do with the task of identifying the set of risk scenarios. Seen in this way, HHM brings strongly to our attention the fact that different methods within TSS can result in different sets of risk scenarios for the same underlying problem. Although this is not a problem practically, it is a bit awkward conceptually from the standpoint of the "set of triplets" definition of risk, in which the scenario set is part of the definition. Accordingly, the present article suggests a refinement to the set of triplets definition, which removes the specific set of scenarios, found by any of the TSS methods, from the definition of risk and casts it, instead, as an approximation to the "true" set of scenarios that is native to the problem at hand and not affected by the TSS method used.     

中学生心理素质概念和成分的研究

运用问卷调查和因素分析等量性研究方法,结合技术性文献分析、开放性译码、主轴译码等质性理论研究方法,对中学生心理素质概念和成分进行了探讨;获得了中学生心理素质是以生理条件为基础的,将外在获得的东西内化成稳定的、基本的、衍生的,并与人的社会适应行为和创造行为密切联系的心理品质,包含认知因素、个性因素和适应性因素三个维度,具体化为２２个因素成分。     

论日本经济周期变动中的财政政策责任

财政政策作为宏观经济政策体系中的一个重要内容,在战后日本经济增长中发挥了积极作用。而财政政策的中心目标,就是在高水平的就业基础上,保持经济稳定和稳步提高生产率,以在可用资源约束下实现最大化经济增长。文章以理论研究为主,以泡沫经济博奕现象分析为出发点,深入研究日本财政政策选择的最优次序和数量财政政策向质量财政政策转移问题,指出只有实行“质量扩张”财政政策才是经济稳定发展的必由之路。     

基于生态效率的生态工业园评价方法研究

生态工业园建设代表了现代工业的发展方向,是社会经济寻求可持续发展的有效途径.如何科学地定量评价生态工业园发展水平成为学术界研究的热点之一.生态效率是基于环境、经济系统相互关系的定量描述,搭建了经济效益和环境效益之间的桥梁.以生态效率理论为基础,建立生态工业园的生态效率指标,通过案例进行生态工业园生态效率的测算与分析,从而定量化地评估生态工业园的综合绩效,为生态工业园实现可持续发展提供决策依据.     

出生人口性别比与和谐社会建设:一个定性和定量分析

20世纪80年代中期以来,中国的出生性别比持续攀升,出生人口性别结构严重失衡。运用定性和定量相结合的研究方法,探讨出生性别比失衡的潜在因素和制度因素。分析结果表明,农村地区出生性别比的失衡与儿子预期的经济价值和文化功用相关。最后提出具有针对性的缓解出生性别比失衡的建议。