我国农业现代化发展水平评测研究综述

应用阅读法、评述法和归纳法对国内外20世纪90年代以来,尤其是近10年来定量研究农业现代化发展水平的成果进行梳理,从主要评价方法、指标系统的构建、指标权重的确定和目标值的确定4个维度对其进行归纳总结,探求农业现代化定量研究的规律。结果表明：目前国内农业现代化水平的定量研究应用最为广泛的方法是综合指标法;农业现代化评价有5个基本步骤;农业现代化评价指标体系一般包括农业生产条件等版块;评价指标标准值确定要动态化、紧密结合当地实际且要反映变化趋势。农业现代化定量研究中尚存在的问题是数据搜集和整理困难、对国外相关资料缺乏挖掘以及新的评价方法和工具亟待引入。     

近十年来北京市城区居民生活质量之变迁--对1991年与2001年两次抽样调查的比较分析

本文以 1 991年和 2 0 0 1年两次抽样调查资料为基础 ,从 6个方面 ,选择了 9个主要指标对近 1 0年来北京城区居民生活质量的变化轨迹进行了初步的描述。研究表明 ,近 1 0年来 ,北京城区居民在物质生活方面有显著改善 ,但无论是 1 991年 ,还是 2 0 0 1年 ,生活质量综合指数得分都没有达到全面小康社会的标准 ,这说明进一步提高居民生活质量 ,仍然是全面建设小康社会的重点之一。     

高质量发展指标体系构建及测度——以河北省为例

我国经济已由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段。准确测度经济发展现状,需要构建高质量发展指标体系。根据高质量发展的内涵,构建了包含6个一级指标和24个二级指标构成的高质量发展指标体系,并以河北省为例运用2005-2016年经济运行数据进行实证测算。结果表明,河北省经济发展质量总体呈波动上升态势,但各维度发展并不均衡,经济活力和生态友好两个维度指标持续向好,而创新驱动、结构优化、民生改善这三个维度指标都出现了下滑和较大波动的情况,成为制约高质量发展的短板。     

Quotas on runs of successes and failures in a multi-state markov chain

For the time-homogeneous multi-state Markov chain {X_n,n≧0} with states labeled as "0" (success) and "f"(failure), f=1,2,… the waiting time problems to be discussed arise by setting quotas on runs of success and failures. Some particular cases are considered.     

Using Bayesian Techniques for Data Pooling in Regional Payroll Forecasting

This article adapts to the regional level a multicountry technique recently used by Garcia-Ferrer, Highfield, Palm, and Zellner (1987) and extended by Zellner and Hong (1987) to forecast the growth rates in gross national product across nine countries. This forecasting methodology is applied to the regional level by modeling payroll formation in seven Ohio metropolitan areas. We compare the forecasting performance of these procedures with that of a ridge estimator and find that the ridge estimator produces forecasts equal to or better than those from the newly proposed estimators. We conclude that the ridge estimator, which does not reference the pooled data information introduced by the newly proposed techniques, may serve as a benchmark against which to judge the relative importance of this kind of information in improving forecasts.     

Non-parametric estimation of data dimensionality prior to data compression: the case of the human development index

In many applications in applied statistics, researchers reduce the complexity of a data set by combining a group of variables into a single measure using a factor analysis or an index number. We argue that such compression loses information if the data actually have high dimensionality. We advocate the use of a non-parametric estimator, commonly used in physics (the Takens estimator), to estimate the correlation dimension of the data prior to compression. The advantage of this approach over traditional linear data compression approaches is that the data do not have to be linearised. Applying our ideas to the United Nations Human Development Index, we find that the four variables that are used in its construction have dimension 3 and the index loses information.     

Extending dual multiple factor analysis to categorical tables

This paper describes a proposal for the extension of the dual multiple factor analysis (DMFA) method developed by Lê and Pagès 15 to the analysis of categorical tables in which the same set of variables is measured on different sets of individuals. The extension of DMFA is based on the transformation of categorical variables into properly weighted indicator variables, in a way analogous to that used in the multiple factor analysis of categorical variables. The DMFA of categorical variables enables visual comparison of the association structures between categories over the sample as a whole and in the various subsamples (sets of individuals). For each category, DMFA allows us to obtain its global (considering all the individuals) and partial (considering each set of individuals) coordinates in a factor space. This visual analysis allows us to compare the set of individuals to identify their similarities and differences. The suitability of the technique is illustrated through two applications: one using simulated data for two groups of individuals with very different association structures and the other using real data from a voting intention survey in which some respondents were interviewed by telephone and others face to face. The results indicate that the two data collection methods, while similar, are not entirely equivalent.     

考虑进口配额的跨国供应商选择与订单分配模糊多目标优化决策

针对跨国供应商选择与订单分配问题,在考虑进口配额限制和需求不确定的情境下,构建了一个实现核心制造商利润最大化和供应商交货质量最大化的模糊多目标混合整数规划模型。该模型考虑汇率、关税等多个全球因素,采用一种交互式模糊多目标规划方法对模型进行求解,并应用一个算例进行验证。研究表明:1.存在进口配额限制时,制造商会优先考虑低成本高质量的海外供应商,达到配额限制后再选择本土供应商补充剩余订单;2.人民币汇率正向影响制造商海外采购。当人民币汇率上升时,制造商进口成本降低,其会将更多订单分配给海外供应商;3.关税负向影响制造商海外采购。当关税上升时,制造商会减少关税高的供应商的进口数量,选择替代供应商来满足其需求。由此获得如下管理启示:1,制造商企业在选择跨国供应商时,应重点关注本国的进口配额政策,使供应商多样化以减少针对单一供应商配额政策剧烈波动对制造商采购成本和企业利润的不利影响。2.汇率时刻都在变动,制造商企业应关注本国和供应商所在国的长期汇率政策以及短期突发事件对汇率的影响,及时调整订单分配决策。3.制造商企业在选择供应商时,需要对供应商所在国的短期和中长期关税政策进行综合评估。     

Indicator development as a site of collective imagination? The case of European Commission policies on the circular economy

ABSTRACT

In recent years the concept of the circular economy gained prominence in EU policy-making. The circular economy promotes a future in which linear ‘make-use-dispose’ cultures are replaced by more circular models. In this paper, we use the concept of sociotechnical imaginaries to ask how an imaginary of circularity has been assembled and stabilized, which imaginative resources were drawn on, and how goals, priorities, benefits and risks haven been merged with discourses of innovation, sustainability and growth. Drawing on policy documents and interviews with policy officers of the European Commission, we argue that the monitoring framework and indicator development function as a site collective imagination in which desirable ‘circular’ futures are co-produced. These futures are imagined to provide novel opportunities for the private sector and to generate jobs and economic growth while at the same time improving the natural environment as measured by selected environmental indicators.     

数字经济发展的评估指标体系研究——基于投入产出视角

发展数字经济是我国重要国策，对其评估指标体系的研究受到多方关注，但目前我国数字经济测度仅仅局限于数字化产业和数字化创新，尚未形成一个完整、系统的数字经济评价指标体系。文章在引入治理环境的基础上，基于经济学上的投入产出视角探讨我国数字经济发展的有效测度方法，在研究数字经济的发展效应中新添了数字化治理和数字知识型人才供给两项指标，构建了一套基于投入产出视角的数字经济发展评价指标体系，为衡量数字经济发展提供了一个系统的体系。为提升数字治理现代化水平，更好发挥数字经济在促进经济高质量发展中的作用提供了实践意义和政策参考。