局部理性市场的预期分析

在一个发育不完善、组织效率较低的商品或资本市场中,不同的市场主体拥有不同信息并产生预期模式的差异,由于交易者之间的信息屏障在短期内无法有效消除,导致预期的异质化长期存在并使市场仅具有局部理性.局部理性市场价格的稳定性取决于理性投机与非理性交易行为的力量对比,而不成熟市场经常显现的过度波动性则往往是理性投机处于弱势的表现.     

人文主义文学与理性自觉

近代理性精神是从文艺复兴时期人们从宗教禁欲主义思想禁锢中解放出来,开始以人权对抗神权时萌芽的。随着新兴的资产阶级的成长和发展,这种理性精神也在逐渐地从自发走向自觉。但它从产生时起就具有自身的悖论:第一,它是伴随着人性的发现而产生,因而就不可避免和人的自然情欲相连;第二,它表现出了对于知识的过分信赖,进而演化成技术理性统治一切、抹杀了人的完整统一性;第三,它带来了个性主体的过分膨胀。     

Predictive Bayesian Microbial Dose-Response Assessment Based on Suggested Self-Organization in Primary Illness Response: Cryptosporidium parvum

The probability of illness caused by very low doses of pathogens cannot generally be tested due to the numbers of subjects that would be needed, though such assessments of illness dose response are needed to evaluate drinking water standards. A predictive Bayesian dose-response assessment method was proposed previously to assess the unconditional probability of illness from available information and avoid the inconsistencies of confidence-based approaches. However, the method uses knowledge of the conditional dose-response form, and this form is not well established for the illness endpoint. A conditional parametric dose-response function for gastroenteric illness is proposed here based on simple numerical models of self-organized host-pathogen systems and probabilistic arguments. In the models, illnesses terminate when the host evolves by processes of natural selection to a self-organized critical value of wellness. A generalized beta-Poisson illness dose-response form emerges for the population as a whole. Use of this form is demonstrated in a predictive Bayesian dose-response assessment for cryptosporidiosis. Results suggest that a maximum allowable dose of 5.0 x 10(-7) oocysts/exposure (e.g., 2.5 x 10(-7) oocysts/L water) would correspond with the original goals of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Surface Water Treatment Rule, considering only primary illnesses resulting from Poisson-distributed pathogen counts. This estimate should be revised to account for non-Poisson distributions of Cryptosporidium parvum in drinking water and total response, considering secondary illness propagation in the population.     

鲁迅与余华创作母题之比较

鲁迅作为二十世纪初中国现代文学的开创者和奠基者,其创作影响了以后中国很多作家。余华被认为是当代与鲁迅精神相接近的一位年轻作家。本文试图从创作母题的角度对两位作家进行比较,从他们的相同与相异中探寻作家与作家之间的距离,以及时代文化变迁在作家身上潜移默化的影响。     

“5．12”汶川大地震受灾人口特征与生存环境变化分析

“5．12”汶川大地震造成10万余平方公里的破坏性区域，造成69227人遇难、17923人失踪和374643人受伤，受灾人口（重灾区）2792万人。8．0级地震所释放的能量，在一定程度上改变了受灾人口所依存的自然环境和人文生态环境。本文以四川地震重灾区为研究单元，在系统分析受灾人口所依存的自然生态环境、居住（建筑空间）环境、人文生态环境、基础设施以及产业发展环境及其发展变化的基础上，析出重灾区内人口生存空间进一步缩小和调整人口分布的结论。在此基础上。提出重灾区在恢复重建中的人口分布调整建议。     

试论研究生数学素养与创新能力

研究生学习与本科生学习的主要区别在于科研与创新。科研的实质在于创新,数学素养和数学能力对于创新意识和创新能力的获得至关重要。就数学理性思维在创新活动中的作用,数学作为工具其先进性对论文前瞻性的影响,数学与其它学科的融合及边缘学科的产生和发展,数学的抽象美感与应用专业的和谐等角度进行分析,论述数学对于研究生学位论文层次及创造性思维活动能力的深刻影响。     

东盟政策机制中的政策网络

政策网络是政策机制的重要组成部分,东盟政策网络的结构和运作是其政治精英理性选择的结果,目的是使这个地区政策网络能满足一体化政策领域扩展的需要,并实现区域一体化进程中各成员国的利益最大化。     

A subjectivist approach to consecutive conflict

An easily applied approach is developed to provide one participant in a sequence of conflicts with an optimal strategy. A goal of this article is to demonstrate that it is mathematically feasible to incorporate a decision maker's subjective distributions over the effects his actions will have on the outcomes of future conflicts. Unlike many other approaches, the model of this article does not restrict the beliefs that the participant is allowed to express. The participant, not the decision theorist, decides on what is relevent. Model assumptions required for updating rules, such as Bayesian updating, are not required unless they really are appropriate for the situation.Thanks are due to J. B. Kadane for suggesting the problem and for many helpful discussions.     

理性烛照的文化反思精神--新武侠小说的现代文化内蕴

新武侠小说以其鲜明而独特的文化品质异于传统武侠小说 ,以金庸等为代表的作家秉持着现代理性批判精神对封建文化中的沉疴痼疾进行了深刻的剖析 ,对传统的人生观、血统论、复仇法则等进行了清理 ,赋予新武侠小说中的英雄们以崭新的人文内涵与性格品质 ,体现出作家重新设计理想人格的努力。     

投资扩张的经济学分析

我国经济运行的态势良好,但存在的问题也不少。其中,投资盲目扩张的冲动较强是个主要矛盾。投资 受预期的影响,非理性预期是投资盲目扩张的一个充分必要条件。将科学发展观引入理性预期的概念之中,能够 提高投资决策和投资行为的科学性。建立健全正式的和非正式的制度安排,发展科学教育事业和提高全民的文化 素质,有利于形成信息的充分性和对称性。