积极财政政策下的税收政策取向

积极财政政策作为我国近期宏观调控经济的基本政策,已取得了一定效益.我国继续实施积极的财政政策还有一定的空间和时间,但仅以增发国债为主的积极财政政策有其局限性,而减税在弥补扩大投资的局限性方面有不可替代的作用.减税政策是"十五"期间国民经济发展的客观需要,应保持相对长期的稳定性,并应遵循一定的原则.     

基于产业示范站的科技扶贫模式及其减贫效应

探索促进区域经济增长和贫困人口减贫相结合的科技扶贫模式,是我国目前精准扶贫战略实施的重点。以西北农林科技大学产业示范站科技扶贫模式为例,从理论层面分析了其减贫机制,并运用陕西省3个国家扶贫开发重点县748份微观农户调研数据,实证检验了科技扶贫的减贫效应。研究发现:(1)产业示范站科技扶贫模式具有显著减贫效应,即农户通过参与农业科技培训、主导产业示范、农业信息服务和产业组织化带动4种扶贫方式,不仅能提高其家庭农业收入,也能降低家庭贫困发生的概率;(2)不同科技扶贫方式的减贫效应存在显著差异,其中农业科技培训的减贫效应较为突出,而农业信息服务的减贫效应有待进一步提升;(3)建档立卡贫困户科技扶贫参与度低于非贫困户。因此,地方政府应加大财政支持与组织保障的力度,引导高校优势科技资源与贫困地区特色产业精准对接,借鉴“西农模式”为深入推进区域精准扶贫战略提供科技支撑。     

精准扶贫视域下福建省苏区老区发展红色乡村旅游研究

目前国内对旅游扶贫的研究，大多是从旅游扶贫的模式、效应、战略思路等宏观方面的研究，文章立足于微观层面，分析福建省苏区老区红色乡村旅游现状、存在的问题及挑战，研究福建省苏区老区红色乡村旅游精准扶贫模式及其长效机制，其实现路径包括：充分挖掘保护利用好RGB资源，助力苏区老区精准扶贫；彰显“红色”凝聚力和带动力，助推苏区老区红色旅游建设；打造红色旅游精品线路，助力苏区老区脱贫攻坚；全面提升红色旅游扶贫的自身造血功能，助推苏区老区乡村振兴；引入“扶贫+区块链”技术及人才培养，助推苏区老区精准扶贫加力提效。     

三国历史的另类书写--论红柯的新历史小说《阿斗》

《阿斗》是作家红柯的一部另类的作品,作品采用了鲁迅《故事新编》式的写法,以另类的手法重新书写了三国历史。作品以新历史主义的观念,通过戏仿、调侃、颠覆的叙事策略给读者呈现了一幅不同于官方正史的历史画面,并描绘了生活在这一历史时空下的芸芸众生。小说以独特的叙事视角再现了三国历史,体现了作者对历史的重新关照与反思。     

Bias correction for time series factor models

In this paper we work with multivariate time series that follow a Factor Model. In particular, we consider the setting where factors are dominated by highly persistent AutoRegressive (AR) processes and samples that are rather small. Therefore, the factors' AR models are estimated using small sample bias correction techniques. A Monte Carlo study reveals that bias-correcting the AR coefficients of the factors allows to obtain better results in terms of prediction interval coverage. As expected, the simulation shows that bias-correction is more successful for smaller samples. We present the results assuming the AR order and number of factors are known as well as unknown. We also study the advantages of this technique for a set of Industrial Production Indexes of several European countries.     

Limiting bias-reduced Amoroso kernel density estimators for non-negative data

The Amoroso kernel density estimator (Igarashi and Kakizawa 2017 Igarashi, G., and Y. Kakizawa. 2017. Amoroso kernel density estimation for nonnegative data and its bias reduction. Department of Policy and Planning Sciences Discussion Paper Series No. 1345, University of Tsukuba. [Google Scholar]) for non-negative data is boundary-bias-free and has the mean integrated squared error (MISE) of order O(n^{? 4/5}), where n is the sample size. In this paper, we construct a linear combination of the Amoroso kernel density estimator and its derivative with respect to the smoothing parameter. Also, we propose a related multiplicative estimator. We show that the MISEs of these bias-reduced estimators achieve the convergence rates n^{? 8/9}, if the underlying density is four times continuously differentiable. We illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed estimators, through the simulations.     

Structural Equation Models for Dealing With Spatial Confounding

In regression analyses of spatially structured data, it is common practice to introduce spatially correlated random effects into the regression model to reduce or even avoid unobserved variable bias in the estimation of other covariate effects. If besides the response the covariates are also spatially correlated, the spatial effects may confound the effect of the covariates or vice versa. In this case, the model fails to identify the true covariate effect due to multicollinearity. For highly collinear continuous covariates, path analysis and structural equation modeling techniques prove to be helpful to disentangle direct covariate effects from indirect covariate effects arising from correlation with other variables. This work discusses the applicability of these techniques in regression setups, where spatial and covariate effects coincide at least partly and classical geoadditive models fail to separate these effects. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

刍议碳排放权的会计核算

当前,人类生态环境面临着严峻的挑战。世界各国积极节能减排,努力实现推进低碳经济发展模式。对碳排放事项进行会计处理并对外披露相关碳会计信息,利用会计手段引导企业注重和开展环境保护,已经成为国内外近年来的研究热点。在梳理碳排放权的内涵的基础上,总结了碳排放权会计核算的研究现状,尤其是归纳了碳排放权的会计处理方式,分析了碳排放权会计信息披露的研究进展,较为全面地反映了时下国内外碳排放权会计核算理论研究的前沿成果。2017年,我国将全面启动碳排放权交易市场,未来的研究需在碳排放权应被确认为何种企业资产、碳排放权信息披露等方面进行深入的研究。     

我国农村沼气事业的发展模式探索

发展农村沼气可以促进资源综合利用、治理环境污染、推进人居环境整治以及提升农产品质量、食品安全水平和农业发展方式。我国的沼气事业经历了“两落三起”的曲折历程,当前,以沼气为纽带的“种养加”发展模式逐步成为我国发展现代农业的重要组成部分。影响沼气现代化发展的因素主要包括国家法律法规和政策、农村生产方式和生活方式、沼气产业结构、科学技术水平等。因此,我国农村沼气的现代化发展,应在新发展理念的指引下,积极推动沼气产业供给侧改革,努力突出科技的支撑和引领作用,不断创新沼气现代化发展模式,大力推动农村沼气与一二三产业融合发展。