Separating age,period, and cohort effects in white U.S. fertility, 1920–1970

Four models are developed to describe the odds transformation of period- and age-specific fertility rates as products of age, period, and cohort effects. These are applied to data for white U.S. women age 15–44 from 1920 to 1970, with equal weights given to each rate. All models which include age fit subsets of the data extremely well. Per effect, the incorporation of periods improves the fit much more than the incorporation of cohorts. It is shown that first differences are invariant in two-effect models, and second differences are invariant in the three-effect models.     

英语语境中的礼貌策略与请求

礼貌策略是有级别的 ,不同的因素决定了在请求中应该使用不同的礼貌策略。这样 ,在达到说话者的目的的同时 ,又维持了说话者和听话者之间的良好的关系 ,从而才能达到完满的交际效果 ,避免出现语用失误     

Internal labor markets, promotions, and worker skill: An indirect test of skill ILMs

The determinants of intrafirm mobility within the internal labor markets (ILMs) of one large, regional bank and one small town bank are examined. The literature on the banking industry suggests that internal labor markets exist there, and that job changes within these markets are based on the development of skill rather than on seniority. It is suggested that in skill ILMs, promotions will be a positive function of the employees' duration in the present job; while in a seniority-based ILM, promotions will be a positive function of tenure with the firm prior to the present job. These findings, for men but not women, support the hypothesis that skill rather than seniority-based ILMs are present in each bank. The findings for women suggest that they work in “firm” or secondary labor markets. While the two banks are similar in the way other factors determine mobility, differences are also found which may be explained by the size and sectoral location of each bank.     

Basic needs macroeconomics: Is it manageable in the case of Egypt

Models are proposed to assess quantitatively the allocation of product to basic needs consumption, surplus consumption, and investment uses along a steady growth pash that guarantees all workers (and their families) their basic needs. Ways to estimate the inflationary consequences of shifting to such a growth path are also proposed. The models are applied with data from Egypt, and suggest that attainment of basic needs for the population of that country will be a difficult task.     

On population comparisons using factor indexes or latent variables

Population comparisons of multivariate models using factor indexes or latent factors are demonstrated to be unsound with current methods of comparative analysis unless one is willing to assume a priori that all of the variances of the latent factors in a model are identical across all populations analyzed. This is an assumption that is probably only rarely found in comparative research. Without this assumption, comparisons are unsound regardless of whether model estimations are made from regression analysis or maximum likelihood techniques. A general method is suggested which proposes to make comparative analyses of factors possible without the assumption of equal variances across populations.     

Deducing simple majorities from approval voting ballot data

An approval voting election allows each voter to vote for as many candidates as he wishes. The winner of such an election is the candidate with the most approval votes. Ballot data aggregated for individual voters tell how many voters voted for each subset of candidates. Given reasonable assumptions about what voters' ballots reveal about their preferences, this report shows what must be true of the ballot data in order to conclude that the electorate has a majority preference for one candidate over another. A simple corollary tells what must be true of the ballot data to conclude that the winner is preferred by a majority of voters to every other candidate. Both hypothetical and reconstructed ballot data from a mayoral election in Boston are used to illustrate the results. It is also shown that the likelihood of being able to draw conclusions about majority candidates tends to increase as voters tend to vote for fewer candidates.     

The social organization of criminal justice processing: An event history analysis

Crimes are social events that involve citizens and control agents interacting over time. Prior work neglects the dynamic and interactive qualities of these criminal events. Drawing from the work of Hawley and others, it is suggested that the processing of criminal events is a routine activity socially organized in time and space. Dynamic modeling techniques developed by N. Tuma are applied to longitudinal data collected on over 10,000 criminal events in California cities and used to model rates of transition from arrest to case disposition resulting from police release, prosecutor denial of complaint, or going to court. As the work of Hawley predicts, city size has much to do with the way criminal events are processed. For example, in larger cities it is demonstrated that crime specialists are processed more slowly than nonspecialists, and that each successive police processing of crime specialists results in slower rates of transition relative to nonspecialists; in smaller cities, it is demonstrated that black suspects are processed more quickly than whites, and that each successive police processing of black suspects results in faster rates of transition relative to whites. The former findings are explained in terms of rationalized intelligence gathering, the latter in terms of stereotyping and the harassment of minorities. The systematic form of the observed temporal changes, notwithstanding a large number of legal and extralegal variables taken into account, leads us to believe that we have identified important patterns of police activity. These and other findings convince us that the social organization of criminal justice processing deserves further study.     

The effect of restricted and unrestricted verdict options on juror choice

Data on the effect of limiting the number of verdict options open to jurors on the probability of acquittal are reanalyzed. Strong support is found for a model which postulates that jurors' preferences are single peaked with respect to an underlying verdict severity continuum. Limited support is found for an anchoring effect in which the addition of new verdict options affects the perceived relative fairness of other verdict options. The implication of the single-peakedness model is that some jurors will refuse to vote for conviction if the verdict (punishment) is seen as too harsh even though the defendant is perceived to be guilty of committing a crime.     

Class locations,consumption locations,and the geography of voting in England

Much ecological analysis of voting patterns in England has been concerned to show (a) the importance of occupational class as a determinant of electoral behavior, and (b) that deviations from a predicted pattern based on class variables are consistent with the neighborhood effect hypothesis. Recently, Dunleavy has criticized both these orientations, replacing them with the concept of consumption locations. The present paper shows, using a new procedure to estimate voting at the constituency level, that there still remain spatial variations to be accounted for.