现代风险的哲学解读

从必然与偶然、可能与现实、过去与未来、正面与负面的关系上对风险的属性、趋势、指向、效应等进行哲学层面上的解读,是一种研究风险的新视角。关注风险的偶然性、不确定性有助于超越传统的必然性、决定论观念束缚;关注风险的潜在性、可能性有助于利用人的理智优势使风险损失最小化;关注风险的未来性、不可逆性有助于培育人的前瞻性和预警性反思的习惯;关注风险的影响力、作用力有助于提高人的生存能力和生活质量。     

双循环驱动我国城市产业转移效应研究

基于201个城市的相关数据,利用动态面板模型和空间杜宾模型,实证分析了内循环、外循环和双循环对产业转移的影响。研究结果表明：前期产业转移在一定程度上会影响后期产业转移,前一期当地产业比例较大,其后产业转移受到的促进作用也较大;内循环、外循环和双循环均对产业转移起到显著的正向促进作用,东部城市受到的促进作用略高于中西部城市;要素流动在产业转移中发挥着重要作用,劳动力要素流动、技术要素流动和资本要素流动不仅受到内、外循环和双循环的促进作用,同时对产业转移也起到一定的促进作用;产业转移具有空间相关性,产业在空间上倾向于向产业转入较高的城区转移。为此,我国在政策上应进一步加快推动内循环,促进外循环,关注要素流动在产业转移中的重要作用,合理分配要素资源。     

"放松贷款利率管制":现实选择、理论模型与经济效应

中国放松贷款利率管制同时约束存款利率有其深刻的时代背景;在斯蒂格利茨等人“金融约束”理论的基础上,提出了一个“约束存款利率、放松贷款利率管制”的理论模型,旨在分析放开贷款利率可望产生的经济效应;最后结论:“金融约束”理论中放开贷款利率上限虽存在局限性,但仍是中国金融改革的必由之路。     

数字化发展、制度环境与政府舆情治理质量

基于2016—2020年我国31个省级行政区的面板数据,考察数字化发展、制度环境与政府舆情治理质量之间的关系。研究发现,数字化发展对政府舆情治理质量具有改善效应;相比制度环境较差的省份,数字化发展对舆情治理质量的改善效应在制度环境较好的省份更为显著。异质性检验表明,数字化发展对政府舆情治理质量的改善效应在数字化水平高的省份、制度环境较好但数字化水平低的省份显著,在制度环境较好的省份、制度环境较差的东部省份显著。研究结论为借助数字化发展改善政府舆情治理质量提供了理论依据。     

领导成员交换关系对企业员工管家行为倾向的影响研究

通过问卷调查,采集针对企业普通员工的问卷数据,探讨了领导成员交换关系与员工管家行为之间的关联关系,构建并检验了 “领导成员交换关系—心理所有权—员工管家行为倾向”作用机制模型。研究结果表明：领导成员交换关系对员工管家行为倾向有显著的正向影响,心理所有权在领导成员交换关系与员工管家行为倾向之间起部分中介作用。     

从"996工作制"透视超时加班的合意效力

对“996工作制”的反思不应当局限于公法的救济,更应当完善工时基准在私法层面的效力内容。在“996工作制”中对超时加班的合意,仅加班时间超出最高加班时数的合意部分无效。对于无效部分,劳动者可以拒绝履行,可以选择继续履行,但用人单位也应当承担因超时加班产生的侵权责任以及工伤赔偿。但劳动者权利不应当无止境地扩大,劳动者不得主张被迫辞职。出于基本给付原则,劳动者提供超时劳动,理应获得相应报酬,双方可以约定包薪制工资,包薪制工资本身并没有违反劳动基准规定。     

长三角一体化发展的边界效应研究——基于城际消费流视角

随着社会技术的进步与市场经济的深化，消费流在反映区域间经济活动的往来程度时显现出了优势。文章借助中国银联2018年城际消费流数据，基于调整后的Head-Mayer边界效应模型，对长三角城市群的市场一体化程度进行测算和评估。实证结果表明：长三角地区的统一市场尚未完全形成，城市边界和省际边界均对异地消费具有抑制作用；省际边界效应表现出异质性，其中上海与其他三省之间的边界对消费流的影响相对较弱，而浙江、江苏、安徽三省彼此之间的市场分割更为明显；长三角各城市的边界效应程度不尽相同，上海的城市边界效应强度为1.05，江苏省各城市的边界效应强度处于3.06~5.51之间，浙江省各城市的边界效应强度介于3.13~6.24之间，而安徽省各城市的边界效应程度最为强烈，在3.85~6.58之间分布。基于长三角区域经济一体化的发展现状，提出以下几点建议：首先，要肯定区域经济协调组织在推动区域经济发展过程中发挥的重要作用。其次，继续深化取消影响区域经济发展的人为阻碍的改革，进一步降低经济合作的障碍和成本。最后，需要积极借鉴国际区域合作经验来推动长三角地区发展。     

Kinship care or upbringing by relatives? The need for ‘new’ understandings in research

This article addresses knowledge production on formal kinship foster care. In spite of growing interest in this phenomenon, little attention has been paid to how kinship care should be understood in research – as a service under child protective services or as upbringing by relatives. Each of these understandings leads to different research questions and creates guidelines for what falls into or outwith the focus of research. In kinship care research, this phenomenon has primarily been studied as a service. Research that seeks to evaluate the effect of kinship care compared to non-kinship care is used as a case to discuss the implications for the type of knowledge that researchers produce. While we acknowledge the importance of this research, we demonstrate the many challenges it involves and why this should not be the primary focus in kinship care research. On the background of these limitations, we argue in favour of approaching kinship care as upbringing by relatives – as ways in which family life can be organised and structured. This can lead to relevant knowledge that will enable us to obtain a better understanding of what kinship care is and involves.     

Cross-border credit networks,banking risk contagion and suppression effects

From the perspective of risk contagion, it is difficult to balance the benefits and costs of banking globalization. We use data on cross-border syndicated loans intended to build heterogeneous credit networks among banking sectors in various countries to explore the introduction of banking risks into the network. Via social network analysis (SNA), we find that the global credit network has phased characteristics, and it is a source of exposure to global banking risks. However, the more important network position, that is, the greater centrality, identified shows that the banking industry is more stable. To explain these findings, we present and estimate the banking risk contagion model and the suppression effect model of contagion. Evidence suggests that the international credit network is the channel of risk contagion, and the long-term loan network and nonfinancial borrower network have a stronger contagion effect. Exogenous banking supervision and network endogenous closeness centrality can inhibit risk contagion. From a policy perspective, these findings indicate the need to supervise high-risk cross-border loans and maintain independence in the international credit network.Data Availability StatementThe data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author, [Heng Zhao, email: zhao0501@mail.dlut.edu.cn], upon reasonable request.