人才测评的内容、方法及存在的问题

讨论人才测评的内容、测评种类、测评工具和方法等 ,指出目前人才测评中存在的问题 ,提出对人机心理测评管理系统进行应用性开发研究     

我国期货市场的法规探讨

本文阐述了期货市场法律规范的基本原则和主要功能，介绍了我国期货市场的近期发展与法规现状，并对我国期贷市场法律规范的基本原则与体系设置作了探讨。     

Government Risk Management Priorities: A Comparison of the Preferences of Asian Indian Americans and Other Americans

A survey was conducted of approximately 200 Asian Indian Americans and 200 other residents of New Jersey in order to understand the risk management priorities that they want government to have. We found that Asian Indian Americans, especially younger women, focused on personal/family risks, such as alcohol and drug abuse, sexual abuse, and domestic violence. The New Jersey comparison group, in contrast, placed war/terrorism and loss of health care services and insurance at the top of their priorities for government. These results suggest stressful acculturation-related issues within the Asian Indian community. Both populations want more risk management from government than they believe government is currently providing. Respondents who wanted more from government tended to dread the risk, be fearful of the consequences, trust government, and have a feeling of personal efficacy. Within the Asian Indian American sample, wide variations were observed by language spoken at home and religious affiliation. Notably, Muslims and Hindi language speakers tended not to trust government and hence wanted less government involvement. This study supports our call for studies of recent migrant populations and Johnson's for testing ethnic identity and acculturation as factors in risk judgments.     

Bayesian validation assessment of multivariate computational models

Multivariate model validation is a complex decision-making problem involving comparison of multiple correlated quantities, based upon the available information and prior knowledge. This paper presents a Bayesian risk-based decision method for validation assessment of multivariate predictive models under uncertainty. A generalized likelihood ratio is derived as a quantitative validation metric based on Bayes’ theorem and Gaussian distribution assumption of errors between validation data and model prediction. The multivariate model is then assessed based on the comparison of the likelihood ratio with a Bayesian decision threshold, a function of the decision costs and prior of each hypothesis. The probability density function of the likelihood ratio is constructed using the statistics of multiple response quantities and Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed methodology is implemented in the validation of a transient heat conduction model, using a multivariate data set from experiments. The Bayesian methodology provides a quantitative approach to facilitate rational decisions in multivariate model assessment under uncertainty.     

Ranking Nuclear and Radiological Terrorism Scenarios: The Italian Case

A quantitative criterion for ranking the different scenarios of nuclear and radiological terrorism has been developed. The aim of the model is not to predict terroristic events but only to indicate which scenario has the higher utility from the point of view of a terroristic organization in terms of balance between factors favoring and discouraging the attack, respectively. All these factors were quantified according to a scoring system that takes into account the logarithmic relationship between perceptions and stimuli. The criterion was applied to several scenarios, each of which was modeled in a simple but not trivial way in order to estimate the expected damage in terms of probable life losses from both radiative and nonradiative effects. The outcome from the ranking method indicates that the attractive scenario appears to be the detonation of a low yield improvised nuclear device in the metropolitan area of a major city.     

高校内部审计风险原因及对策研究

内部审计机构的相对独立性、审计人员业务能力的局限性、审计方法及审计手段的落后状况等因素决定了内部审计风险的客观存在,目前高校办学和业务活动出现了一些新的特点,高校的内部审计工作不仅同样也存在风险,且较之以前有加大的趋势。本文论述了高校内部审计风险产生原因并相应提出了防范和控制风险的措施。     

我国开发股指期货风险规避策略研究

股指期货是一种新的金融衍生产品,对发展和完善我国证券市场具有重要意义。本文在详细介绍了股指期货的特点和功能的基础上,借鉴发达国家和地区股指期货推出和发展经验,结合我国证券市场实际,对开发股指期货的必要性和可行性进行探讨,并针对开发股指期货实施步骤、政策准备和风险规避策略等方面提出了相关建议:实施步骤及政策准备应包括法律、管理规则修改与准备、科学编制股指、渐进式开放和借鉴国外经验等几个方面;风险规避策略包括建立严密的法规与监管体系、科学合理地设计股指期货合约、完善市场运行机制、加强期货市场与股票市场的合作和壮大与完善股指期货的投资主体等七个方面。     

Loss functions for estimation of extrema with an application to disease mapping

It is often of interest to find the maximum or near maxima among a set of vector‐valued parameters in a statistical model; in the case of disease mapping, for example, these correspond to relative‐risk “hotspots” where public‐health intervention may be needed. The general problem is one of estimating nonlinear functions of the ensemble of relative risks, but biased estimates result if posterior means are simply substituted into these nonlinear functions. The authors obtain better estimates of extrema from a new, weighted ranks squared error loss function. The derivation of these Bayes estimators assumes a hidden‐Markov random‐field model for relative risks, and their behaviour is illustrated with real and simulated data.     

PSC朗读评分中的语音缺陷问题

在2002年12月《普通话水平测试大纲》修订工作征求意见稿中,我们发现它增加了对短文朗读中语音缺陷扣分的规定。短文朗读中的"语音缺陷"在《普通话水平测试大纲》现行评分标准中一直处于被忽视的地位。笔者同意征求意见稿的观点,对短文朗读中存在的"语音缺陷"应该扣分。短文朗读中存在的"语音缺陷"不能归入语音错误,也不能把它们划入"方言语调"的范围,应该把它们并入"方言色彩"的测试中。为此,笔者提出了短文朗读里语音缺陷的评分办法。     

Modeling External Risks in Project Management

To ascertain the viability of a project, undertake resource allocation, take part in bidding processes, and other related decisions, modern project management requires forecasting techniques for cost, duration, and performance of a project, not only under normal circumstances, but also under external events that might abruptly change the status quo. We provide a Bayesian framework that provides a global forecast of a project's performance. We aim at predicting the probabilities and impacts of a set of potential scenarios caused by combinations of disruptive events, and using this information to deal with project management issues. To introduce the methodology, we focus on a project's cost, but the ideas equally apply to project duration or performance forecasting. We illustrate our approach with an example based on a real case study involving estimation of the uncertainty in project cost while bidding for a contract.