The empirical Bayes estimators of the parameter of the Poisson distribution with a conjugate gamma prior under Stein's loss function

For the hierarchical Poisson and gamma model, we calculate the Bayes posterior estimator of the parameter of the Poisson distribution under Stein's loss function which penalizes gross overestimation and gross underestimation equally and the corresponding Posterior Expected Stein's Loss (PESL). We also obtain the Bayes posterior estimator of the parameter under the squared error loss and the corresponding PESL. Moreover, we obtain the empirical Bayes estimators of the parameter of the Poisson distribution with a conjugate gamma prior by two methods. In numerical simulations, we have illustrated: The two inequalities of the Bayes posterior estimators and the PESLs; the moment estimators and the Maximum Likelihood Estimators (MLEs) are consistent estimators of the hyperparameters; the goodness-of-fit of the model to the simulated data. The numerical results indicate that the MLEs are better than the moment estimators when estimating the hyperparameters. Finally, we exploit the attendance data on 314 high school juniors from two urban high schools to illustrate our theoretical studies.     

Independent attributes control chart for Markov-dependent processes

Statistical process monitoring (SPM) is a very efficient tool to maintain and to improve the quality of a product. In many industrial processes, end product has two or more attribute-type quality characteristics. Some of them are independent, but the observations are Markovian dependent. It is essential to develop a control chart for such situations. In this article, we develop an Independent Attributes Control Chart for Markov Dependent Processes based on error probabilities criterion under the assumption of one-step Markov dependency. Implementation of the chart is similar to that of Shewhart-type chart. Performance of the chart has been studied using probability of detecting shift criterion. A procedure to identify the attribute(s) responsible for out-of-control status of the process is given.     

董仲舒王道论浅析

董仲舒将王道之依据上溯于天,认为是圣人承天意以从事的结果,并将人间的统治者确定为天之子,由此论证了现实政权的合法性;同时,他又通过"天立王以为民也"的设定,将人间统治者的统治置于以天道为依据的王道的规制之下。在此基础之上,他结合现实,对儒家视域中与王道相对的霸道,进行了论述,认为王霸皆本于仁,将儒法结合,并在治道层面主张德主刑辅,大德小刑,从而把儒法结合后的政治行动力契入儒家,使其主张具有非常强烈的现实感和可操作性。由此,中国近千年的霸王道杂之的治道模式在一定程度上得以确立。     

Optimal acceptance sampling policy considering Bayesian risks

In this paper, we propose a sampling policy considering Bayesian risks. Various definitions of producer's risk and consumer's risk have been made. Bayesian risks for both producer and consumer are proven to give better information to decision-makers than classical definitions of the risks. So considering the Bayesian risk constraints, we seek to find optimal acceptance sampling policy by minimizing total cost, including the cost of rejecting the batch, the cost of inspection, and the cost of defective items detected during the operation. Proper distributions to construct the objective function of the model are specified. In order to demonstrate the application of the proposed model, we illustrate a numerical example. Furthermore, the results of the sensitivity analysis show that lot size, the cost of inspection, and the cost of one defective item are key factors in sampling policies. The acceptable quality level, the lot tolerance proportion defective, and Bayesian risks also affect the sampling policy, but variations of acceptable quality level and producer Bayesian risks, for values more than a specified value, cause no changes in sampling policy.     

Permuting incomplete paired data: a novel exact and asymptotic correct randomization test

Various statistical tests have been developed for testing the equality of means in matched pairs with missing values. However, most existing methods are commonly based on certain distributional assumptions such as normality, 0-symmetry or homoscedasticity of the data. The aim of this paper is to develop a statistical test that is robust against deviations from such assumptions and also leads to valid inference in case of heteroscedasticity or skewed distributions. This is achieved by applying a clever randomization approach to handle missing data. The resulting test procedure is not only shown to be asymptotically correct but is also finitely exact if the distribution of the data is invariant with respect to the considered randomization group. Its small sample performance is further studied in an extensive simulation study and compared to existing methods. Finally, an illustrative data example is analysed.     

Fetal movements: What are we telling women?

Problem

Information that women receive about the importance of monitoring fetal movements and what to do if there are changes is inconsistent and may not be evidence based.

中东大规模动荡与我国的外交应对

中东剧变一年多以来,阿拉伯国家蒙受巨大冲击,引起了所有中东国家乃至国际社会的高度关注,而这首先与中东的重要位置有关.这次变局几乎波及所有阿拉伯国家,民众诉求涉及政治、经济、社会诸多方面.问题是长年积累下来的,2011年的动荡应是这种情绪的大爆发,虽会推动社会前进,但代价却是巨大的.叙利亚问题前景仍不明朗,目前只维持了脆弱的和平.中国以“不干涉内政”原则和“劝和促谈”的方针应对这次大动荡是正确的、主动的,不管外界有多少反对声音和暂时的不理解,都应坚定不移地走下去.     

从俞平伯晚年自省和“李希凡自述”想到的(之三)——回应俞平伯晚年的红学研究反思

俞平伯先生晚年的红学自省是真实可信的,应引起红学界高度重视,他的红学研究思想的重大变化同1954年那场对他的批评有内在的因果关系。对当年那场"批俞评红"不能全盘否定,不能只讲负面问题,全面否定其正确性和必要性。现在红学研究的一些乱象正是当年批判过了的错误研究思想、研究方法的泛滥。这种泛滥同对当年的全盘否定不无关系。     

On some aspects of a generalized alternative zero-inflated logarithmic series distribution

Here, we consider a generalized form of the alternative zero-inflated logarithmic series distribution of Kumar and Riyaz (J. Statist. Comp. Simul., 2015) and study some of its important aspects. The parameters of the distribution are estimated by the method of maximum likelihood and some test procedures are developed for testing the significance of the additional parameter of the model. All these estimation and testing procedures are illustrated with the help of certain real life datasets. A simulation study is also carried out for assessing the performance of the estimators.     

Raising rural women’s voices: From self-silencing to self-expression

Within the context of a community-academic partnership, we undertook a mixed-methods study to identify and explore health status, priorities, and management strategies among aging Wisconsin rural women. A questionnaire measuring diverse wellness needs was administered to women participating in personal development programming offered by a rural nonprofit organization. A subgroup participated in qualitative interviews to deepen the understanding of identified health priorities and methods of coping and healing. Findings provide insight into the prevalence of self-silencing among rural women and highlight mechanisms that help to facilitate the dismantling of self-silencing.