Bayesian inference for the randomly censored Weibull distribution

In this paper, we consider the Bayesian inference of the unknown parameters of the randomly censored Weibull distribution. A joint conjugate prior on the model parameters does not exist; we assume that the parameters have independent gamma priors. Since closed-form expressions for the Bayes estimators cannot be obtained, we use Lindley's approximation, importance sampling and Gibbs sampling techniques to obtain the approximate Bayes estimates and the corresponding credible intervals. A simulation study is performed to observe the behaviour of the proposed estimators. A real data analysis is presented for illustrative purposes.     

Inference after separated hypotheses testing: an empirical investigation for linear models

Model selection problems arise while constructing unbiased or asymptotically unbiased estimators of measures known as discrepancies to find the best model. Most of the usual criteria are based on goodness-of-fit and parsimony. They aim to maximize a transformed version of likelihood. For linear regression models with normally distributed error, the situation is less clear when two models are equivalent: are they close to or far from the unknown true model? In this work, based on stochastic simulation and parametric simulation, we study the results of Vuong's test, Cox's test, Akaike's information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, Kullback information criterion and bias corrected Kullback information criterion and the ability of these tests to discriminate between non-nested linear models.     

Simulated annealing for the bounds of Kendall's τ and Spearman's ρ

It has long been known that, for many joint distributions, Kendall's τ and Spearman's ρ have different values, as they measure different aspects of the dependence structure. Although the classical inequalities between Kendall's τ and Spearman's ρ for pairs of random variables are given, the joint distributions which can attain the bounds between Kendall's τ and Spearman's ρ are difficult to find. We use the simulated annealing method to find the bounds for ρ in terms of τ and its corresponding joint distribution which can attain those bounds. Furthermore, using this same method, we find the improved bounds between τ and ρ, which is different from that given by Durbin and Stuart.     

On testes for threshold–type nonlinearity in irregulaly spaced time series

Formulating the model first in continuous time, we have developed a state space approach to the problem of testing for threshold-type nonlinearity when the data are irregularly spaced.     

基于差异产品的政府最优R&D补贴策略研究

本文建立考虑产品差异的三阶段双寡头博弈模型:第一阶段政府选择R&D(Research and Development)补贴率,第二阶段企业确定自己的R&D水平,第三阶段企业确定产品价格进行伯川德竞争。根据双寡头在第二和第三阶段是否合作,给出了R&D竞争、R&D卡特尔、共同实验、技术共享联盟和研究共同体等五种R&D策略,得到了相应的政府最优R&D补贴率。研究表明,当技术溢出程度较低且产品水平差异不大时,政府给予采用R&D竞争策略企业的补贴率不高于采用R&D卡特尔策略的企业;当技术溢出程度较高且产品水平差异较大时,结果则相反。在政府进行最优补贴后,从促进技术进步、扩大企业规模以及社会福利最大化的角度来看,五种R&D策略中,共同实验最差,技术共享联盟和研究共同体则最优。     

论任渊《山谷诗集注》的诗学批评

宋代诗歌注释者任渊有较高的文学创作才能,并曾亲身跟随黄庭坚学习诗歌创作。他注释了黄庭坚平生最得意的《内集》,对黄诗中许多含蓄未尽的言外之意作了发挥补充,评论了其中一些精妙的对偶和用典,还总结了黄诗"有为而作"的立意特点及"有味"的风格,并对"点铁成金"等创作方法做了细致的分析说明。     

高密派诗学所关的一代诗运——清代高密派诗学理论成因探析

高密诗派是清代康乾盛世时期一个地域性很强的诗歌流派。它以"高密三李"李怀民、李宪暠、李宪乔为代表,趋步中唐诗人张籍、贾岛的"苦吟"。其诗学理论则乖离盛世文化主流,具有明显的针对性,为整体认识和了解清初诗学开辟了另一新颖的视角。     

论欧盟在欧元区主权债务危机中的改革与发展

2009-2010年的希腊主权债务危机引发了欧元区集体危机,这被认为是自1999年EMU成立以来遭遇的最大挑战。继希腊之后,爱尔兰和葡萄牙先后向欧盟提出了金融救助申请。2011年7月,欧盟达成了对希腊进行第二轮金融援助的方案。尽管欧元区主权债务危机形势不容乐观,但此次危机也促使欧盟及其成员国加快了自身改革。