The sensitivity of income polarization

This study looks at polarization and its components’ sensitivity to assumptions about equivalence scales, income definition, ethical income distribution parameters, and the income accounting period. A representative sample of Danish individual incomes from 1984 to 2002 is utilised. Results show that polarization has increased over time, regardless of the applied measure, when the last part of the period is compared to the first part of the period; primary causes being increased inequality (alienation) and faster income growth among high incomes relative to those in the middle of the distribution. Increasing the accounting period confirms the reduction in inequality found for shorter periods, but polarization is virtually unchanged, because income group identification increases. Applying different equivalence scales does not change polarization ranking for different years, but identification ranks are affected. The welfare state considerably reduces income polarization and inequality, but at the expense of some more identification.      

关于农民专业合作经济组织发展问题

研究了农民专业合作经济组织发挥组织功能、中介功能、服务功能、教育功能和改革功能具有的重要意义以及在现实中存在的政府部门重视不够、规范化程度低和风险共担等问题;阐述了在农民专业合作发展中应遵循的原则,同时给出了推进其发展的对策是明确责任、完善政策和强化服务等措施。     

我国非营利组织税收优惠法律制度完善的研究

我国为鼓励非营利组织的发展,为捐赠人和非营利组织自身都制定了一系列税收优惠措施。但是现阶段的税收优惠制度存在的诸多不足不能满足我国非营利组织的发展要求。我国应从合理区分非营利组织性质,对非营利组织的营利收入予以合理免税、改进捐赠激励机制等方面完善非营利组织的税收优惠法律制度,以便实现非营利组织的可持续发展。     

论我国法定继承制度的完善

我国《继承法》规定的法定继承制度,内容简单且不够全面。《继承法》应以我国《民法典》的制订为历史契机进行修订和补充,扩大法定继承人范围,增加法定继承顺序,强化配偶继承权的法律保护,完善代位继承制度等,以进一步完善我国的法定继承制度,并为《民法典》的制订打好基础。     

Failure Probability Under Parameter Uncertainty

In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location‐scale families (including the log‐normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications.     

Nonparametric tests for scale shift at an unknown time point

A class of linear rank tests is suggested for testing a shift in scale at an unknown time point in a sequence of independent observations. The tests,based on inverse normal scores and on ordered exponential scores,are shown to be asymptotically as efficient as their distribution-oriented competitors. Critical values and powers for these two rank tests are also discussed.     

Children Selectively Trust Individuals Who Have Imitated Them

We investigated the influence of being imitated on children's subsequent trust. Five‐ to six‐year‐olds interacted with one experimenter who mimicked their choices and another experimenter who made different choices. Children were then presented with two tests. In a preference test, the experimenters offered conflicting preferences for the contents of two opaque boxes, and children were asked to choose a box. In a factual claims test, the experimenters offered conflicting claims about the referent for a novel word, and children were asked to state which object the word referred to. Children were significantly more likely to endorse both the preferences and the factual claims of the experimenter who had mimicked them. These results demonstrate that imitation is a powerful means of social influence in development.     

A modified subset selection formulation with special reference to one-way and two-way layout experiments

The usual formulation of subset selection due to Gupta (1956) requires a minimum guaranteed probability of a correct selection. The modified formulation of the present paper includes an additional requirement that the expected number of the nonbest populations be bounded above by a specified constant when the best and the next best populations are ‘sufficiently’ apart. A class of procedures is defined and the determination of the minimum sample size required is discussed. The specific problems discussed for normal populations include selection in terms of means and variances, and selection in terms of treatment effects in a two-way layout.     

A class of high-breakdown scale estimators based on subranges

We consider a new class of scale estimators with 50% breakdown point. The estimators are defined as order statistics of certain subranges. They all have a finite-sample breakdown point of [n/2]/n, which is the best possible value. (Here, [...] denotes the integer part.) One estimator in this class has the same influence function as the median absolute deviation and the least median of squares (LMS) scale estimator (i.e., the length of the shortest half), but its finite-sample efficiency is higher. If we consider the standard deviation of a subsample instead of its range, we obtain a different class of 50% breakdown estimators. This class contains the least trimmed squares (LTS) scale estimator. Simulation shows that the LTS scale estimator is nearly unbiased, so it does not need a small-sample correction factor. Surprisingly, the efficiency of the LTS scale estimator is less than that of the LMS scale estimator.