描写充分与解释充分之张力：原则与参数框架的理论动因

通过总结Chomsky的＂句法理论中的原则与参数＂一文,回顾原则与参数框架产生的历史背景及其理论动因,梳理原则与参数框架的主要思想及内容,分析原则与参数框架提出的意义、它所面临的挑战及其发展前景。描写充分性与解释充分性之间的张力是原则与参数框架形成的理论动因。在生成语法追求＂超越解释的充分性＂这一更高目标的过程中,我们看到的是继续前进中的原则与参数。     

Variable selection for multivariate generalized linear models

Generalized linear models (GLMs) are widely studied to deal with complex response variables. For the analysis of categorical dependent variables with more than two response categories, multivariate GLMs are presented to build the relationship between this polytomous response and a set of regressors. Traditional variable selection approaches have been proposed for the multivariate GLM with a canonical link function when the number of parameters is fixed in the literature. However, in many model selection problems, the number of parameters may be large and grow with the sample size. In this paper, we present a new selection criterion to the model with a diverging number of parameters. Under suitable conditions, the criterion is shown to be model selection consistent. A simulation study and a real data analysis are conducted to support theoretical findings.     

Linear estimation for the extended exponential power distribution

Tiao and Lund [The use of OLUMV estimators in inference robustness studies of the location parameter of a class of symmetric distributions. J Amer Statist Assoc. 1970;65(329):370–386] tabulated the coefficients of the best linear unbiased estimators (BLUEs) of location and scale for a particular family of symmetric distributions. This family was a reparameterization of the extended exponential power distribution (EEPD) with the shape parameter restricted to be greater than or equal to one. In this work, we consider the BLU estimation of the location and scale parameters of the EEPD when the shape parameter is one-third and one-half. We obtain closed-form expressions for the single and product moments of the order statistics when the shape parameter is in general in the form of a reciprocal of an integer. These expressions are then used to determine the BLUEs and the corresponding variances for complete samples of size 20 and less. We consider some other linear estimators of the location and scale parameters and then compare them with the BLUEs. Finally, we present a numerical example to illustrate the developed results.     

Robust Priors in Nonlinear Panel Data Models

Many approaches to estimation of panel models are based on an average or integrated likelihood that assigns weights to different values of the individual effects. Fixed effects, random effects, and Bayesian approaches all fall into this category. We provide a characterization of the class of weights (or priors) that produce estimators that are first‐order unbiased. We show that such bias‐reducing weights will depend on the data in general unless an orthogonal reparameterization or an essentially equivalent condition is available. Two intuitively appealing weighting schemes are discussed. We argue that asymptotically valid confidence intervals can be read from the posterior distribution of the common parameters when N and T grow at the same rate. Next, we show that random effects estimators are not bias reducing in general and we discuss important exceptions. Moreover, the bias depends on the Kullback–Leibler distance between the population distribution of the effects and its best approximation in the random effects family. Finally, we show that, in general, standard random effects estimation of marginal effects is inconsistent for large T, whereas the posterior mean of the marginal effect is large‐T consistent, and we provide conditions for bias reduction. Some examples and Monte Carlo experiments illustrate the results.     

Decision Theory Applied to a Linear Panel Data Model

This paper applies some general concepts in decision theory to a linear panel data model. A simple version of the model is an autoregression with a separate intercept for each unit in the cross section, with errors that are independent and identically distributed with a normal distribution. There is a parameter of interest γ and a nuisance parameter τ, a N×K matrix, where N is the cross‐section sample size. The focus is on dealing with the incidental parameters problem created by a potentially high‐dimension nuisance parameter. We adopt a “fixed‐effects” approach that seeks to protect against any sequence of incidental parameters. We transform τ to (δ, ρ, ω), where δ is a J×K matrix of coefficients from the least‐squares projection of τ on a N×J matrix x of strictly exogenous variables, ρ is a K×K symmetric, positive semidefinite matrix obtained from the residual sums of squares and cross‐products in the projection of τ on x, and ω is a (N−J) ×K matrix whose columns are orthogonal and have unit length. The model is invariant under the actions of a group on the sample space and the parameter space, and we find a maximal invariant statistic. The distribution of the maximal invariant statistic does not depend upon ω. There is a unique invariant distribution for ω. We use this invariant distribution as a prior distribution to obtain an integrated likelihood function. It depends upon the observation only through the maximal invariant statistic. We use the maximal invariant statistic to construct a marginal likelihood function, so we can eliminate ω by integration with respect to the invariant prior distribution or by working with the marginal likelihood function. The two approaches coincide. Decision rules based on the invariant distribution for ω have a minimax property. Given a loss function that does not depend upon ω and given a prior distribution for (γ, δ, ρ), we show how to minimize the average—with respect to the prior distribution for (γ, δ, ρ)—of the maximum risk, where the maximum is with respect to ω. There is a family of prior distributions for (δ, ρ) that leads to a simple closed form for the integrated likelihood function. This integrated likelihood function coincides with the likelihood function for a normal, correlated random‐effects model. Under random sampling, the corresponding quasi maximum likelihood estimator is consistent for γ as N→∞, with a standard limiting distribution. The limit results do not require normality or homoskedasticity (conditional on x) assumptions.     

基于随机Petri网的生产提前期牛鞭效应测度研究

利用随机Petri网结合三角模糊参数,对产品生产的三工艺阶段生产周期的波动进行测定,得出前工艺阶段生产周期的波动造成后工艺阶段生产周期更大的波动,且波动逐级传递。证实了生产提前期也具有类似供应链中的牛鞭效应的现象,对不确定因素导致生产周期波动的测度提供了一种新的思路和方法。     

Asymptotic distributions in affiliation networks with an increasing sequence

A central limit theorem for a linear combination of all the maximum likelihood estimators with an increasing dimension for affiliation networks has been established. Simulation studies are provided to illustrate the asymptotic results.     

A general class of non parametric tests for comparing scale parameters

In this paper, a general class of non parametric tests is proposed for the two-sample scale problem. Testing of the scale parameter is very useful in real-life situations commonly faced in engineering, trade, cultivation, industries, medicine, etc. In all these fields, one will prefer the method that gives more consistent results. Thus, it is worthwhile to test the equality of scale parameters. The distribution of the proposed test is established. To assess the performance of the proposed test, the asymptotic efficacies are studied for some underlying distributions and the results are interpreted with useful information. To see the working of the proposed test, an illustrative example for the real-life data set is provided. The simulation study is also carried out to find the asymptotic power of the proposed test. An extension of the general class of tests to the multiple-sample problem is also discussed.