经济全球化下经济周期波动的新特征

经济全球化下经济周期的新特征可以概括为三点:一是经济周期波动幅度减小;二是经济周期延长;三是经济周期趋同化.当前中国刚结束的一轮经济周期也出现了新的特征:从波动性质上看,本轮是一个"增长型"周期,波动幅度大大减小;从波动的长度看,本轮周期比以往周期要长,而且是一个短扩张、长收缩的周期;此外,世界经济周期对我国经济周期的影响也不断加大.经济周期出现的新特征,需要政府对经济周期的调控作出相应的调整.     

行业生命周期与并购类型--中国公司控制权市场效率的检验

按照并购双方行业的相互关系,并购可以分为横向、纵向和混合三种类型.本文认为,处于行业生命周期不同阶段的企业采用不同并购类型的并购,其绩效也不相同.根据这一关系,可以对我国的上市公司控制权市场进行检验.通过对1999～2002年我国上市公司控制权市场298个样本的实证分析表明,中国上市公司控制权市场的效率仍然不高,并没有发挥其应有的作用.本文力图对这一现象给出解释,提出了几个可能的原因.     

生态学原理与品牌研究

在竞争的市场环境中,品牌的产生与成长涉及到品牌特质、品牌之间相互作用、品牌与环境等问题,这与生态学研究生物个体与种群和环境的关系有着内在的相似性。品牌研究的一个新方向就是基于这两个学术领域之间在原理和方法上的相互借鉴,从而引申出品牌个性、品牌生命周期、名牌生态系统、品牌生态学等富有启发性的概念,这些跨学科隐喻或类比研究,具有实践和理论的意义。     

Researches on the Distribution Domains of G(4) G(4)的分布域之研究

讨论了有固定的最大度△=4和n个顶点的一类无自环,无向、连通平面图G(△)的异构类的分布域R(v,n)(圈秩v=1---n+1)的三种情况,从而获得R(v,n)的A型、B型和C型的分布定理,并举例说明分布域在图论和碳氢化合物上的应用。     

我国居民家庭生命周期消费储蓄行为动态模拟研究

本文建立了家庭生命周期消费储蓄优化模拟模型,并利用该模型对我国居民家庭生命周期阶段各类家庭的消费储蓄行为进行了模拟研究,比较分析了家庭生育决策、教育决策和收入转移决策变化对家庭消费储蓄行为的影响以及利率变动和信贷约束的影响。模拟结果显示,信贷约束对家庭消费路径有着重要影响,约束了家庭在新生阶段和中间阶段的消费水平;教育费用的提高和教育投资实现的不确定性风险提高了家庭的教育储蓄水平;生育数的降低、教育投资机会的短缺和代际关系的松散化趋势提高了家庭的养老储蓄水平。利率的提高使生命周期前期的家庭消费下降,使生命周期后期的家庭消费提高。提高利率政策的消费传导效应,可以通过提高受教育程度和增加消费信贷来实现。     

浅谈个人投资理财

人们可以不同的形式持有其金融资产,如资本市场投资(包括公司股票、期货、国债券、企业债券、定期存款、外汇投资等)和地产市场投资,但是选择哪一个领域进行投资,必须掌握宏观动向,体察经济周期,然后再运用波段理论决定什么时间进入,什么时间退出。     

Why does onlyAthalia Japonica enter summer diapause among three sympatricAthalia sawflies feeding on crucifers?

Summary This report assesses the primary factor for the evolution of summer diapause of the three species of sawfly,Athalia japonica, A. rosae andA. infumata that feed on cruciferous plants and coexist in the same area.A. japonica has two discrete spring and autumn generations, butA. rosae andA. infumata 5–6 generations. OnlyA. japonica enters summer diapause in response to the long daylengths in spring. Although these three sawflies usually feed on the same cultivated crucifers, they differ markedly in the utilization of wild crucifers. They oviposit only on young leaves.A. japonica mainly usesCardamine plants which sprout in spring and autumn.A. rosae andA. infumata primarily use hosts with new leaves all the year round, i.e. cultivated crucifers andRorippa indica, respectively. The thermal threshold for development is lower inA. japonica than in the other two species. The low heat tolerance ofA. japonica is adapted only to cool shady habitats whereCardamine grows. Presumably, summer diapause ofA. japonica is adaptation to the deterioration of the primary host plants rather than unfavorable climatic conditions. This interpretation is supported by the movement patterns of the threeAthalia sawflies, alternative means to escape from deteriorated habitat conditions.     

单芯片智能化仪表抗干扰的新措施

介绍了ＸＪＰ－０２Ｂ数字转速显示仪所采用的新式看门狗电路，分析了常用的看门狗电路和新的看门狗电路在抗干扰方面的优缺点．应用表明，新的看门狗电路具有很强的抗干扰能力．     

Using the Biological Two-Stage Model to Assess Risk from Short-Term Exposures

Two assumptions used in risk assessment are investigated: (1) the assumption of fraction of lifetime dose rate assumes that the risk from a fractional lifetime exposure at a given dose rate is equal to the risk from full lifetime exposure at that same fraction of the given dose rate; (2) the assumption of fraction of lifetime risk assumes that the risk from a fractional lifetime exposure at a given dose rate is equal to that same fraction of the risk from full lifetime exposure at the same dose rate. These two assumptions are equivalent when risk is a linear function of dose. Thus both can be thought of as generalizations of the assumption that cancer risk is proportional to the total accumulated lifetime dose (or average daily dose), which is often made to assess the risk from short-term exposures. In this paper, the age-specific cumulative hazard functions are derived using the two-stage model developed by Moolgavkar, Venzon, and Knudson for situations when the exposure occurs during a single period or a single instant. The two assumptions described above are examined for three types of carcinogens, initiator, completer, and promoter, in the context of the model. For initiator and completer, these two assumptions are equivalent in the low-dose region; for a promoter, using the fraction of lifetime risk assumption is generally more conservative than that of the fraction of lifetime dose rate assumption. Tables are constructed to show that the use of either the fraction of lifetime dose rate assumption or the fraction lifetime risk assumption can both underestimate and overestimate the true risk for the three types of carcinogens.     

绿色制造工程与先进制造业基地发展战略选择--以浙江先进制造业基地建设为例

在总结浙江制造业环境现状的基础上,提出了绿色制造工程的概念、特征、运行模式和推行绿色制造工程在建设先进制造业基地中的意义;并重点论述了实施绿色制造工程的战略思想、目标与重点———突出推行产品全生命周期评价技术、深入开展绿色营销和全面推广绿色教育,以推动制造业“企业—环保—社会”的最终发展目标的实现。