试论《水浒传》的道教思想

《水浒传》的道教文化因素研究是从近30 年开始的，主要表现在对小说中的道教文化语境、小说对待道教的态度、艺术手 法上对道教的体现、九天玄女的原型及其在小说中的意义等方面。比较诸说，可以发现《水浒传》的道教文化因素研究尚未取 得较统一的结论，这就为我们留下了一把探索的钥匙，对小说的道教思想进行分类，并从文本结构与内容等方面进行论述，不 仅有助于多角度了解小说主旨，更具有极大的现实意义，对我们的处事原则、心灵诉求等方面皆起到规正作用。     

论德彪西作品中和声手法的多样性

德彪西创造了以色彩表现为主的印象主义和声的新风格。他的和声语言及运用手段相对古典和声学来说是一种创新和发展。     

QUALITY ISSUES IN TELEPHONE SURVEYS: COVERAGE, NON-RESPONSE and QUOTA SAMPLING

The quality of a telephone survey is affected by several factors: telephone coverage, non-response, the methods used to select households and persons, and the quality of responses obtained from respondents. Data are provided which show that a large proportion of Australian households have telephone connections. However, telephone coverage is not uniform and some subgroups of the population have much lower connection rates. This paper reviews evidence of the effect of non-response and the effectiveness of repeated call backs, and reports the results of a new study. The use of quota sampling to select respondents from randomly selected households is also examined. The results suggest that telephone surveys under-represent older persons and the unemployed, and over-represent middle-aged persons. It is shown that while call backs can increase the response rate, the effect on the composition of the sample and resulting estimates is minimal. The main effects are due to refusals and variation in coverage rates.     

THE IMPACT OF METHOD CHOICE ON META-ANALYSIS

This paper focusses mainly on three crucial choices identified in recent meta-analyses, namely (a) the effect of using approximate statistical techniques rather than exact methods, (fa) the effect of using fixed or random effect models, and (c) the effect of publication bias on the meta-analysis result. The paper considers their impact on a set of over thirty studies of passive smoking and lung cancer in non-smokers, and addresses other issues such as the role of study comparability, the choice of raw or adjusted data when using published summary statistics, and the effect of biases such as misclassification of subjects and study quality. The paper concludes that, at least in this example, different conclusions might be drawn from metaanalyses based on fixed or random effect models; that exact methods might increase estimated confidence interval widths by 5–20% over standard approximate (logit and Mantel-Haenszel) methods, and that these methods themselves differ by this order of magnitude; that taking study quality into account changes some results, and also improves homogeneity; that the use of unadjusted or author-adjusted data makes limited difference; that there appears to be obvious publication bias favouring observed raised relative risks; and that the choice of studies for inclusion is the single most critical choice made by the modeller.     

浅谈舞蹈基本功教学中的控制训练

控制训练是舞蹈基本功训练的重要环节和基础,在舞蹈基本功教学中占有十分重要的地位。本文通过舞蹈基本功教学与控制训练的关系、控制训练与人的生理素质和心理素质的影响,重点论述了控制训练在舞蹈艺术中所具有的普遍意义和所发挥的独特作用。     

De‐Biasing the Reporting Bias in Social Media Analytics

User‐generated contents (UGC) in social media such as online reviews are inherently incomplete since we do not capture the opinions of users who do not write a review. These silent users may be systematically different than those who speak up. Such differences can be driven by users’ differing sentiments toward their shopping experiences as well as their disposition to generate UGC. Overlooking silent users’ opinions can result in a reporting bias. We develop a method to model users’ UGC generating process and then rectify this bias through an inverse probability weighting (IPW) approach. In the context of users’ movie review activities at Blockbuster.com, our results show that the average probability for a customer to post a review is 0.06 when the customer is unsatisfied with a movie, 0.23 when indifferent, and 0.32 when satisfied. The distribution of user's reporting probability with positive experience first‐order stochastically dominates the one with negative experience. Our approach provides a realistic solution for business managers to properly utilize incomplete UGC.     

Choice of best linear in the guass-markoff model with a singular dispersion matrix

In this paper we obtain the complete class of representations and useful subclasses of MV-UB-LE and MV-MB-LE (minimum variance unbiased and minimum bias linear estimators) of linear parametric functions in the Gauss-Markoff model (Y,Xβ, σ ²V) when V is possibly singular.     

A Reexamination of Friedman's Consumption Puzzle

The different average and marginal consumption propensities estimated from time series data constitute a classic puzzle of the theory of consumption. This article argues that if consumption and income possess a common stochastic trend (and thus are cointegrated), both the average propensity to consume (APC) and the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) will be consistent but biased in small samples. Upon correcting for this small sample bias, the puzzling discrepancies between the APC and the MPC estimated using annual data for the United States from 1897 to 1949 become substantially smaller. This supports an alternative resolution of the puzzle based on the theory of cointegration.     

Recollection Bias and Its Underpinnings: Lessons from Terrorism Risk Assessments

Recollection bias is the phenomenon whereby people who observe a highly unexpected event hold current risk beliefs about a similar event that are no higher than their recollection of their prior beliefs. This article replicates and extends the authors’ previous study of recollection bias in relation to individuals’ perceptions of the risks of terrorism attacks. Over 60% of respondents in a national U.S. sample of over 900 adults believe that the current risk of a future terrorist attack by either an airplane or in a public setting is no higher than they recall having believed, respectively, before the 9/11 attack and before the Boston Marathon bombing. By contrast, a rational Bayesian model would update to a higher currently assessed risk of these previously uncontemplated events. Recollection bias is a persistent trait: individuals who exhibited this bias for the 9/11 attack exhibited it for the Boston Marathon bombing. Only one‐fifth of respondents are free of any type of recollection bias. Recollection bias is negatively correlated with absolute levels of risk belief. Recollection bias in relation to highly unexpected terrorist events—the belief that perceived risks did not increase after the surprise occurrence—dampens support for a variety of anti‐terrorism measures, controlling for the level of risk beliefs and demographic factors. Persistent recollection bias for both 9/11 and the Boston Marathon bombing is especially influential in diminishing support for protective policy measures, such as surveillance cameras in public places. Given that public attitudes influence policy, educating the public about risk is critical.     

Estimation of Covariate Distribution with Capture–Recapture Data

The main purpose of this article is to estimate the underlying covariate distribution with a biased capture–recapture sample. Two procedures are proposed, and the derived estimates are found to be consistent and asymptotically normal. The proposed methods are compared and are shown to perform well in most circumstances via simulation study, and are applied to a real example.