汇改后中国外汇市场与资本市场联动效应——基于集合经验模态分解法

以投资者预期收益变动逻辑起点,构建在不同预期收益下外汇市场与资本市场的联动机制理论模型,进而将2005-2014年按金融市场改革历程划分为4个阶段,通过集合经验模态分解法对中国外汇市场与资本市场的数据进行分解,过滤掉代表资本价格随机波动的短周期分量,提取最具代表联动性的长周期趋势分量。采用VAR-GARCH-BEKK模型对4个阶段两个市场的均值溢出效应和波动溢出效应进行分析,结果显示:受中国经济增长的方式以及外汇管制制度影响,不同阶段两个市场间的溢出效应呈现出不同的特点,虽然总体来看联动强度有一定程度的加强,但是两个市场间"资金价格"传导机制的脆弱性并未获得实质性的改变。因此,只有推进汇率市场化,循序渐进的加快资本项目可兑换,完善人民币汇率形成机制,才能够不断提高货币政策调控的主动性和有效性性,维护国家利益。     

浮动汇率制下出口企业汇率风险承受能力研究--基于机电行业的实证分析

我国机电产品主要出口北美、欧盟和日本。在浮动汇率制及“一带一路”发展战略的背景下,我国机电产品出口不同国家或地区的贸易额度受汇率波动的影响较大。利用2000—2014年我国机电行业出口上述国家或地区的贸易年度数据,实证分析人民币在兑美元、欧元和日元结汇条件下我国机电出口企业汇率风险承受能力的变化大小。研究表明：我国机电出口企业汇率风险承受能力受汇率波动影响最明显的是美元区,其次是欧元区,最后是日本。     

文艺学美学方法论视角下的电视新闻节目研究

从1958 年北京电视台开播,我国电视新闻正式诞生到现在,已经过去了57 年的时间。在这57 年的时间中,中国的电视 新闻事业得到了跨越性的发展。从最初的黑白电视到彩色画面;从只能节目录播到全程直播;从只有几个单独的电视台到现 在的电视新闻传输的全覆盖。尤其是90 年代后,随着现代科技的发展、新兴的数字技术给电视新闻传播带来了巨大的影响。 人们对于新闻节目的制作质量要求越来越高,但是电视新闻节目的质量却良莠不齐,所以如何吸收借鉴各行各业的优秀精华, 不断提升电视新闻节目的质量,带给观众美的享受,则是新闻工作者的不懈追求。而文艺学美学方法论中的诸多内容,都对电 视新闻节目的研究大有裨益     

电子商务市场产品多元化战略的销售绩效及驱动因素研究

结合电子商务市场特征,从理论方面分析电子商务市场产品多元化战略的驱动因素及其销售绩效,利用正则表达式等数据挖掘技术形成电子商务市场的面板数据库,并对相关研究假设进行实证检验。结果表明：在电子商务市场上,产品多元化战略与企业销售绩效正相关,而市场同质化竞争程度与产品多元化战略负相关,企业经营时间、顾客好评率抑制了企业对产品多元化战略的选择。研究结论对于电子商务市场的企业产品多元化战略选择具有重要参考意义。     

国家铁路货物整车运输比价关系探讨

铁路整车货运运价率结构对于货运整体收入及市场竞争力具有重要影响。通过对国家铁路货运总体运营价格水平与整车运价率、整车运价率基价1与基价2之间比价关系的分析发现,整车货运比价关系存在的主要问题体现在运价号设置的结构性、对运输成本的抵补、价率水平的均衡性以及与货物品类的对应关系等方面。因此,提出在"一口价"模式下充分考虑运输市场竞争因素、适当调整各运价号基价1与基价2增幅及比值关系、增设新运价号以及与运价浮动管理相结合充分利用3号运价等调整建议。     

技术创新融资风险评价模型与实证研究

针对型技术创新融资过程中融资风险难以量化及融资风险评价主体的模糊性问题,建立企业举债背景下的权益资本报酬率服从正态分布 N E,σ2()的融资风险量化与评价模型,将该模型应用于高新技术企业上市公司技术创新融资项目进行实证分析,结果显示,对融资风险量化的准确性高,且融资风险评价模型实用性强,为企业技术创新融资过程中的风险管理决策提供合理依据。     

Mixed-effects Models with Skewed Distributions for Time-varying Decay Rate in HIV Dynamics

After initiation of treatment, HIV viral load has multiphasic changes, which indicates that the viral decay rate is a time-varying process. Mixed-effects models with different time-varying decay rate functions have been proposed in literature. However, there are two unresolved critical issues: (i) it is not clear which model is more appropriate for practical use, and (ii) the model random errors are commonly assumed to follow a normal distribution, which may be unrealistic and can obscure important features of within- and among-subject variations. Because asymmetry of HIV viral load data is still noticeable even after transformation, it is important to use a more general distribution family that enables the unrealistic normal assumption to be relaxed. We developed skew-elliptical (SE) Bayesian mixed-effects models by considering the model random errors to have an SE distribution. We compared the performance among five SE models that have different time-varying decay rate functions. For each model, we also contrasted the performance under different model random error assumptions such as normal, Student-t, skew-normal, or skew-t distribution. Two AIDS clinical trial datasets were used to illustrate the proposed models and methods. The results indicate that the model with a time-varying viral decay rate that has two exponential components is preferred. Among the four distribution assumptions, the skew-t and skew-normal models provided better fitting to the data than normal or Student-t model, suggesting that it is important to assume a model with a skewed distribution in order to achieve reasonable results when the data exhibit skewness.     

Comparison of hazard rates for dependent random variables

In this paper, we define and study a new notion for the comparison of the hazard rates of two random variables taking into account their mutual dependence. Properties, applications and the comparison for a data set are given.     

Measuring Social Tension from Income Class Segregation

We develop an index that effectively measures the level of social tension generated by income class segregation. We adopt the basic concepts of between-group difference (or alienation) and within-group similarity (or identification) from the income [bi]polarization literature; but we allow for asymmetric degrees of between-group antagonism in the alienation function, and construct a more effective identification function using both the relative degree of within-group clustering and the group size. To facilitate statistical inference, we derive the asymptotic distribution of the proposed measure using results from U-statistics. As the new measure is general enough to include existing income polarization indices as well as the Gini index as special cases, the asymptotic result can be readily applied to these popular indices. Evidence from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics data suggests that, while the level of social tension shows an upward trend over the sample period of 1981 to 2005, government’s taxes and transfers have been effective in reducing the level of social tension significantly.     

Understanding Estimators of Treatment Effects in Regression Discontinuity Designs

In this paper, we propose two new estimators of treatment effects in regression discontinuity designs. These estimators can aid understanding of the existing estimators such as the local polynomial estimator and the partially linear estimator. The first estimator is the partially polynomial estimator which extends the partially linear estimator by further incorporating derivative differences of the conditional mean of the outcome on the two sides of the discontinuity point. This estimator is related to the local polynomial estimator by a relocalization effect. Unlike the partially linear estimator, this estimator can achieve the optimal rate of convergence even under broader regularity conditions. The second estimator is an instrumental variable estimator in the fuzzy design. This estimator will reduce to the local polynomial estimator if higher order endogeneities are neglected. We study the asymptotic properties of these two estimators and conduct simulation studies to confirm the theoretical analysis.