陕西省小城镇发展模式研究

从"城镇空间组织关系"、"区域自然生态条件"、"城镇发展水平"三个维度出发进行综合空间分类,大致可把陕西省小城镇分为中心城市带动型、自组织发展型、落后地区引导发展型三种类型,并在发展模式选择与实施等方面做了探讨,为政府决策提供政策参考。     

Generating synthetic data to produce public-use microdata for small geographic areas based on complex sample survey data with application to the National Health Interview Survey

Small area statistics obtained from sample survey data provide a critical source of information used to study health, economic, and sociological trends. However, most large-scale sample surveys are not designed for the purpose of producing small area statistics. Moreover, data disseminators are prevented from releasing public-use microdata for small geographic areas for disclosure reasons; thus, limiting the utility of the data they collect. This research evaluates a synthetic data method, intended for data disseminators, for releasing public-use microdata for small geographic areas based on complex sample survey data. The method replaces all observed survey values with synthetic (or imputed) values generated from a hierarchical Bayesian model that explicitly accounts for complex sample design features, including stratification, clustering, and sampling weights. The method is applied to restricted microdata from the National Health Interview Survey and synthetic data are generated for both sampled and non-sampled small areas. The analytic validity of the resulting small area inferences is assessed by direct comparison with the actual data, a simulation study, and a cross-validation study.     

Linguistic practice and identity work: Variation in Taiwan Mandarin at a Taipei County high school

This article examines variation in the use of two Taiwan Mandarin features, de‐retroflection of sibilant fricatives [?] → [s], and labial glide deletion [w?] → [?], in the speech of Taipei County high school students. The features become resources for the negotiation of identity positions within the highly structured school institution. I discuss the correlations between the use of Taiwan Mandarin and two social factors: membership in the small culture (Holliday 1999 ) of a particular bānjí or class, and individual aspirations. Holliday's concept of small cultures is proposed as a variant of the Community of Practice. I refer to Bucholtz and Hall's ( 2004 ) tactics of intersubjectivity framework as a possible tool for explaining variation at the school. I argue that the two Taiwan Mandarin features are invoked to perform different social goals, which is possible because they are imbued with related but significantly different sociocultural meanings (Brubaker 2012 ; Baran 2007 ).     

Optimal cut-off for rare events and unbalanced misclassification costs

This paper develops a method for handling two-class classification problems with highly unbalanced class sizes and misclassification costs. When the class sizes are highly unbalanced and the minority class represents a rare event, conventional classification methods tend to strongly favour the majority class, resulting in very low detection of the minority class. A method is proposed to determine the optimal cut-off for asymmetric misclassification costs and for unbalanced class sizes. Monte Carlo simulations show that this proposal performs better than the method based on the notion of classification accuracy. Finally, the proposed method is applied to empirical data on Italian small and medium enterprises to classify them into default and non-default groups.     

浙江农村青年创业小额贷款项目在基层的实施效果研究———以乐清市为例

浙江农村青年创业小额贷款项目自推出以来受到浙江基层创业青年广泛关注,该项小额贷款制度申请程序简便、担保形式灵活、政府扶持力度逐年加大,已逐步发展成为基层创业青年融资的主要途径之一.近年来,在浙江“两创”总战略鼓励下,农村青年创业小额贷款项目发展前景广阔、发展势头良好,同时在担保、风险控制、贷款覆盖面等方面也不乏矛盾和困惑     

美国小群体传播研究的范式与理论评述

＂小群体＂指成员彼此间有面对面互动关系和情感联系的群体,一般人数较少。小群体是人类生活基本环境与交流的重要场所。＂二战＂以后,对小群体传播的研究逐渐兴盛以至今天呈现出多条主线的景象。本文在研读相关文献的基础上,将美国小群体传播研究理论成果分为结构范式、功能范式、叙事范式和戏剧范式等四种范式,并对有关理论进行介绍,以期对我国学术界开展相关研究提供理论借鉴。     

Implementation of just-in-time methodology in a small company

This paper describes the implementation of JIT in a small manufacturing company and the benefits that resulted for the company's operations. Preliminary analysis identified various problems in the existing manufacturing operations. The pre-implementation and post-implementation conditions of the company arc detailed. The achievements of the JIT implementation included a reduction in material traversing, reduced lead limes and inventories leading to an overall reduction in the cost of manufacturing. A smooth flow of material from the raw material stage to the finished product stage was established. Three separate product lines were combined into a flexible manufacturing assembly line. With the adoption of a holistic approach to JIT implementation, it was found that even a small company can make significant strides towards world class manufacturing status. The experience gained by the company can encourage and benefit other small companies to embrace the JIT approach.     

A diagnostic statistic for functional-coefficient autoregressive models

In this paper, functional coefficient autoregressive (FAR) models proposed by Chen and Tsay (1993) are considered. We propose a diagnostic statistic for FAR models constructed by comparing between parametric and nonparametric estimators of the functional form of the FAR models. We show asymptotic properties of our statistic mathematically and it can be applied to the estimation of the delay parameter and the specification of the functional form of FAR models.     

政府采购与经济增长的实证研究——基于ARMA最优模型

本文采用基于ARMA模型适用于小样本的最优预测的建模方法,来分析政府采购和经济增长之间的因果关系。研究结果表明政府采购和经济增长之间存在非对称、单向因果关系,即政府采购对经济增长的影响不显著,而经济增长对政府采购具有促进作用。因此,从政府采购影响路径的角度分析认为,在后金融危机时代应该采取一些可行的措施扭转政府采购对经济增长的不显著状况。     

人口较少民族经济向现代经济转变的路径分析

在阐述路径依赖理论的基础上,结合人口较少民族经济的特点对人口较少民族经济向现代经济转变的路径进行了分析,提出要辩证地看待人口较少民族传统经济在这一转变中的影响和作用,认为人口较少民族实现经济转变的首要问题是打破经济封闭和信息封闭,在此基础上,将自身的特色优势与区域优势有效结合起来,将传统经济中的积极因素与现代经济因素有效结合起来,走因地制宜、循序渐进的转变路径。