信息分化的产生、发展及影响研究

信息分化是信息社会学中的一个新的概念,是一种新的社会分化现象.文章分析了这一现象产生和发展的主、客观因素,着重探讨了信息分化给社会发展带来的影响.     

Use of Risk Assessment and Likelihood Estimation to Analyze Spatial Distribution Pattern of Respiratory Infection Cases

Obvious spatial infection patterns are often observed in cases associated with airborne transmissible diseases. Existing quantitative infection risk assessment models analyze the observed cases by assuming a homogeneous infectious particle concentration and ignore the spatial infection pattern, which may cause errors. This study aims at developing an approach to analyze spatial infection patterns associated with infectious respiratory diseases or other airborne transmissible diseases using infection risk assessment and likelihood estimation. Mathematical likelihood, based on binomial probability, was used to formulate the retrospective component with some additional mathematical treatments. Together with an infection risk assessment model that can address spatial heterogeneity, the method can be used to analyze the spatial infection pattern and retrospectively estimate the influencing parameters causing the cases, such as the infectious source strength of the pathogen. A Varicella outbreak was selected to demonstrate the use of the new approach. The infectious source strength estimated by the Wells‐Riley concept using the likelihood estimation was compared with the estimation using the existing method. It was found that the maximum likelihood estimation matches the epidemiological observation of the outbreak case much better than the estimation under the assumption of homogeneous infectious particle concentration. Influencing parameters retrospectively estimated using the new approach can be used as input parameters in quantitative infection risk assessment of the disease under other scenarios. The approach developed in this study can also serve as an epidemiological tool in outbreak investigation. Limitations and further developments are also discussed.     

Functional regression concurrent model with spatially correlated errors: application to rainfall ground validation

In this paper, we give an extension of the functional regression concurrent model to the case of spatially correlated errors. We propose estimating the spatial correlation structure by using functional geostatistics. The estimation of the regression parameters is carried out by feasible generalized least squares. This modeling approach is motivated by the problem of validating rainfall data retrieved from satellite sensors. In this sense, we use the methodology to study the relationship between satellite and ground rainfall time series recorded in 82 weather stations from Department of Valle del Cauca, Colombia. The model obtained allows predicting pentadal rainfall curves in many sites of the region of interest by using as input the satellite information. A residual analysis shows a good performance of the methodology proposed.     

Hierarchical Bayesian models for predicting spatially correlated curves

Functional data analysis has emerged as a new area of statistical research with a wide range of applications. In this paper, we propose novel models based on wavelets for spatially correlated functional data. These models enable one to regularize curves observed over space and predict curves at unobserved sites. We compare the performance of these Bayesian models with several priors on the wavelet coefficients using the posterior predictive criterion. The proposed models are illustrated in the analysis of porosity data.     

Cross‐Cultural Validity of Bowen Theory in Southern European Countries

We present a comparison between Italy, Spain, Greece, and Portugal to test the cross‐cultural validity of the Differentiation of Self Inventory Revised (DSI‐R) Scales of emotional cut‐off (EC) and emotional reactivity (ER). Our study focuses on the importance of in‐depth analyses of the differentiation of self‐constructs from a cross‐cultural perspective and reflects on the possibility of conceptualising the universality of Bowen theory in southern European countries. The study involved 1,807 healthy individuals. All participants completed the DSI‐R (Skowron & Schmitt, 2003). It was found that the measurement models had a suitable fit for each country group. Nevertheless, in our study, the two DSI‐R subscales, ER and EC, highlighted a weak invariance, specifically demonstrating only the invariance of the pattern factor loadings and the magnitude of factor loadings in the four samples. The empirical and clinical implications of these data are discussed.     

市场竞争与价格离散——影响机理与经验证据

价格离散背离了"一价定律"，是市场运行效率低的一种反映，但却是一种普遍存在的现象。那么，通过市场竞争机制能否降低某一行业（产品）的市场中的价格离散?本文先是分别在消费者信息搜寻理论和厂商空间竞争理论的框架下，分析市场竞争对价格离散的影响机理。然后，本文收集了我国地级（及以上）城市的车险市场上所有企业的价格和其他相关变量，研究主要发现：即使去除了产品异质性，车险市场仍然存在明显的价格离散，企业之间价格的变异系数的均值和中位数分别为0.472和0.445；市场竞争能够降低车险市场的价格离散，平均而言，企业数目提高10家（市场集中程度降低一单位样本标准差），企业之间车险价格的标准差将降低其平均水平的约25%（5%~6%）。辅助性分析和稳健性分析支持了本文结论。本文的政策含义在于：应当增进供给侧的竞争，降低需求侧的信息搜寻成本。     

How fields vary

Field theorists have long insisted that research needs to pay attention to the particular properties of each field studied. But while much field‐theoretical research is comparative, either explicitly or implicitly, scholars have only begun to develop the language for describing the dimensions along which fields can be similar to and different from each other. In this context, this paper articulates an agenda for the analysis of variable properties of fields. It discusses variation in the degree but also in the kind of field autonomy. It discusses different dimensions of variation in field structure: fields can be more or less contested, and more or less hierarchical. The structure of symbolic oppositions in a field may take different forms. Lastly, it analyses the dimensions of variation highlighted by research on fields on the sub‐ and transnational scale. Post‐national analysis allows us to ask how fields relate to fields of the same kind on different scales, and how fields relate to fields on the same scale in other national contexts. It allows us to ask about the role resources from other scales play in structuring symbolic oppositions within fields. A more fine‐tuned vocabulary for field variation can help us better describe particular fields and it is a precondition for generating hypotheses about the conditions under which we can expect to observe fields with specified characteristics.     

“低保”需求与供给错位了吗？

文章运用探索性空间数据分析方法，并构建空间Durbin计量模型，对2003～2014年间我国城市最低生活保障标准的空间差异及其成因进行了实证分析。研究表明，我国的“低保”需求与“低保”资金供给存在错位的现象，分税制改革与地区分割的最低生活保障制度是造成“低保”需求与“低保”资金供给错位的主要原因。此外，我国城市最低生活保障标准在空间分布上存在显著的空间示范效应，当中央政府提出要向民生倾斜时，地方政府存在竞争提高城市最低生活保障标准的倾向。     

Imagined Rural/Regional Spaces: Non-Normative Sexualities in Small Towns and Rural Communities in Croatia

This research aims to critically examine how the complexity of the ongoing process of “coming out” in small towns and rural spaces in Croatia undermines the imagined hierarchical distinction between rural/urban spaces. The narratives of LGBQ individuals living in these spaces subvert imaginaries of their communities as homogeneously hostile and threatening. Some participants did, however, perceive other spaces as either “gay-friendly” or “deeply homophobic.” As Croatia is transnationally perceived to be a part of a larger “homophobic region,” the construction of the rural/urban hierarchical distinction is (re)produced and (re)configured within discourses that signify Western countries and so-called more developed regions within Croatia as “more open and liberal” as opposed to “more homophobic and backward” spaces. These distinctions between countries, regions, and the rural/urban spaces come into contradiction with each other and are undermined by my interviewees’ own incongruous experiences.     

近代四川城市水源结构的空间差异性研究

基于清末民国旧方志、新中国建国后编修的新方志、东亚同文书院的饮水调查以及民国档案中的饮水统计，对近代四川123个城市的水源结构作了复原。以“四川”或“地貌区”为空间级考量，近代四川城市水源结构皆存在明显的空间差异。以井水为主的城市集中在川西平原与川中丘陵北部，以河水为主的城市集中在川东平行岭谷与盆周边缘山地，以溪泉为主的城市散布在盆周边缘山地、川西南山地与川西北高原。地理环境与取用便捷性是影响近代四川城市水源结构的主要因素，涵括“地下水位高低与凿井难易度”“城市是否濒临江河”“城市濒临江河干流或支流的差异”三个方面的影响因子。