当代大学生媒介消费行为统计分析

当今世界信息传播革命正在兴起,信息技术的迅猛发展推动着大众传播媒介走向现代化。大众传播媒介的发展对大学生的影响尤为深刻。本文拟对当代大学生对大众传播媒介的使用状况作粗浅探索和分析,并试图研究互联网的使用与其它传播媒介的关系。     

A Semi-Parametric Quantile Function Estimator for Use in Bootstrap Estimation Procedures

In this note we develop a new quantile function estimator called the tail extrapolation quantile function estimator. The estimator behaves asymptotically exactly the same as the standard linear interpolation estimator. For finite samples there is small correction towards estimating the extreme quantiles. We illustrate that by employing this new estimator we can greatly improve the coverage probabilities of the standard bootstrap percentile confidence intervals. The method does not reqiure complicated calculations and hence it should appeal to the statistical practitioner.     

学校乒乓球业余训练的研究

乒乓球运动需要人才辈出。“塔基”式的人才培养是在众多的基层单位有组织管理的全民健身运动活动中形成和发展起来的。学校开展业余训练工作 ,需要在完成教学工作量的前提下 ,利用课余时间、两个假期以及双休日有目的地培养和发现有潜力的运动员人才。培训过程需要专业性、系统性和长期性 ,这样做有利于少儿运动员身心健康成长 ,有利于基本功形成专业化 ,并且能够活跃校园体育文化活动。同时 ,业余训练能够出成绩 ,能够参加各级各类比赛活动     

Bayesian validation assessment of multivariate computational models

Multivariate model validation is a complex decision-making problem involving comparison of multiple correlated quantities, based upon the available information and prior knowledge. This paper presents a Bayesian risk-based decision method for validation assessment of multivariate predictive models under uncertainty. A generalized likelihood ratio is derived as a quantitative validation metric based on Bayes’ theorem and Gaussian distribution assumption of errors between validation data and model prediction. The multivariate model is then assessed based on the comparison of the likelihood ratio with a Bayesian decision threshold, a function of the decision costs and prior of each hypothesis. The probability density function of the likelihood ratio is constructed using the statistics of multiple response quantities and Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed methodology is implemented in the validation of a transient heat conduction model, using a multivariate data set from experiments. The Bayesian methodology provides a quantitative approach to facilitate rational decisions in multivariate model assessment under uncertainty.     

谁开创了贝叶斯学派？——对拉普拉斯1774年一篇文章的回顾

1764年,贝叶斯的遗作《机遇理论中一个问题的解》，是当今统计学界贝叶斯学派的开山之作，然而直到20世纪，贝叶斯的文章却并未对后世贝叶斯学派的发展产生重大影响。事实上，真正促使贝叶斯的思想在科学界得到广泛传播的关键人物是大科学家拉普拉斯。1774年，拉普拉斯发表的关于贝叶斯理论的里程碑式的文章，使现代读者充分认识到拉普拉斯对贝叶斯学派发展所起的巨大作用，并从拉普拉斯的思想中获得了有益的新知。     

In Memoriam: Emeritus Professor Henry Oliver Lancaster, AO FAA 1 February 1913 – 2 December 2001

The death, in Sydney, of Oliver Lancaster marks the end of an era in the histories of the Statistical Society of Australia, which (in its previous existence as the Statistical Society of New South Wales) he helped found in 1947, and of the Australian Journal of Statistics of which he was founding editor (1959–1971). Oliver Lancaster was Foundation Professor of Mathematical Statistics at the University of Sydney (1959–1978), where he spent his life as student and academic. During his academic career, he achieved scholarly distinction in at least four fields: mathematical statistics, medical and public health statistics, the history of medicine and of statistics, and statistical bibliography. With E.J.G. Pitman (1897–1993), M.H. Belz (1897–1975), E.A. Cornish (1909–1973) and P.A.P. Moran (1917–1988) he was part of a cohort of renowned Australian mathematical statisticians who laid the foundation of the glory days of Australian mathematical statistics. This obituary and tribute focuses on some of these aspects, within a broader historical picture.     

深度报道:历史性契约

关于“深度报道”的各种思考充斥于新闻传播学领域,遗憾的是,诸多的讨论却由于本体思考的缺失或倒错,最终偏离了期望的轨道,反造成知识上的混乱。究其实,“深度报道”是人类规避简单思维求取生存真相的一种努力。它一头扎进复杂的现实背景中去,该背景深入到事实的每一个原子中去,以至于特别的偏好事实的模糊性。它所追寻的是历史记忆的官能,它所采纳的是社会学的思考,它所贡献的是强烈的批判性。它是人类在“极速主义”时代求取清明的一种负责任的大努力。     

Expected sample moments of concomitants of selected order statistics

In this paper, the task of determining expected values of sample moments, where the sample members have been selected based on noisy information, is considered. This task is a recurring problem in the theory of evolution strategies. Exact expressions for expected values of sums of products of concomitants of selected order statistics are derived. Then, using Edgeworth and Cornish-Fisher approximations, explicit results that depend on coefficients that can be determined numerically are obtained. While the results are exact only for normal populations, it is shown experimentally that including skewness and kurtosis in the calculations can yield greatly improved results for other distributions.     

A relation for the covariances of order statistics from n independent and non-identically distributed random variables

We derive a simple relation satisfied by the covariances of order statistics in the i.i.d. case and then generalize it to the case when the variables are independent and non-identically distributed. This relation could be employed successfully either to check the calculations or to reduce the amount of direct computations involved in evaluating the covariances of order statistics from an outlier model.     

Uniform asymptotic linearity of a process based on a signed rank statistic

Consider the process with, cf. (1.2) on page 265 in B1, X₁, …, X_N a sample from a distribution F and, for i = 1, …, N, R${}_{\text{|x}{}_{\text{1}}\text{, - q}{}_{\text{1}}\text{ø|}}$ , the rank of |X₁ - q₁ø| among |X₁ - q₁ø|, …, |X_N - q_Nø|. It is shown that, under certain regularity conditions on F and on the constants p_i and q_i, T^ø_N(t) is asymptotically approximately a linear function of ø uniformly in t and in ø for |ø| ≤ C. The special case where the p_i and the q_i, are independent of i is considered.