中国人口转变与消费制度变迁

从抑制消费到刺激消费是中国消费制度的重大变革。本文运用新制度经济学和人口经济学理论,论证了中国人口转变通过人口增长的迅速下降,人口年龄结构的变化及其带来的人口红利对消费制度变迁的影响:死亡率下降主导的初期阶段,人口转变固化了抑制消费的制度,出生率下降主导阶段,人口转变与改革开放条件下的高速经济增长相叠加加剧了原有消费制度的不均衡。通过实证分析,揭示出消费率在人口转变过程中下降的必然性和中国保持适度人口增长的必要。     

The baby boom in New Zealand and other Western developed countries

The Baby Boom was undoubtedly one of the more emblematic events of the twentieth century. As it was a distinctly demographic phenomenon, it has been dissected by some of the most distinguished of demographers. Yet its greatest influence is not in demography, but in fields like marketing, pop-psychology, and even gerontology: the Baby-Boomers rather than the generation currently at reproductive ages are blamed for structural ageing. This paper questions aspects of Baby-Boom mythology. It asks how it has been measured: a boom suggests numerical volume, yet instead we measure flows. It questions whether the hegemonic model of the boom — the American one that has effectively delineated its parameters in Europe, Australisia and Japan, both among demographers and in the popular media — really does apply to other countries. It also asks whether or not Western Europes limited surges in births really qualify as booms in the strict sense of the term. Finally, it raises questions more in the field of the sociology of knowledge: the way the Baby Boom mythology has spread often in the face of counterfactual evidence. This paper is a revised version of the Australian Population Associations 2006 Borrie Lecture.     

美国医疗保障制度的变迁及启示

现代意义上的医疗保障是工业社会转型的产物,它是由政府为社会成员的疾病医疗、健康关怀提供必要的保障,使民众能够积极应对疾病风险,防止因病致贫和因病返贫,促进社会和谐发展。因此,它在国家社会保障体系中始终占据极其重要的地位。作为世界上经济最为发达的国家,美国实行了以医疗保险为核心、具有自身独特性的医疗保障制度,这种制度在50多年的变迁过程中也产生了许多问题引起了美国历届政府持续而艰难的改革。他们的改革理念及改革措施也许能够对当前中国城乡医疗保障制度的建立健全提供一些有益的借鉴。     

Demographic change and response: Social context and the practice of birth control in six countries

This paper expands on Kingsley Davis’s demographic thesis of change and response. Specifically, we consider the social context that accounts for the primacy of particular birth control methods that bring about fertility change during specific time periods. We examine the relevance of state policy (including national family planning programs), the international population establishment, the medical profession, organized religion, and women’s groups using case studies from Japan, Russia, Puerto Rico, China, India, and Cameroon. Some of these countries are undergoing the second demographic transition, others the first. Despite variations in context, heavy reliance on sterilization and/or, abortion as a means of birth control is a major response in most of these countries. The key roles of the medical profession and state policy are discussed, along with the general lack of influence of religion and of women’s groups in these countries.     

Experimental Games on Networks: Underpinnings of Behavior and Equilibrium Selection

In this paper, we describe a series of laboratory experiments that implement specific examples of a general network structure. Specifically, actions are either strategic substitutes or strategic complements, and participants have either complete or incomplete information about the structure of a random network. Since economic environments typically have a considerable degree of complementarity or substitutability, this framework applies to a wide variety of settings. We examine behavior and equilibrium selection. The degree of equilibrium play is striking, in particular with incomplete information. Behavior closely resembles the theoretical equilibrium whenever this is unique; when there are multiple equilibria, general features of networks, such as connectivity, clustering, and the degree of the players, help to predict informed behavior in the lab. People appear to be strongly attracted to maximizing aggregate payoffs (social efficiency), but there are forces that moderate this attraction: (1) people seem content with (in the aggregate) capturing only the lion's share of the efficient profits in exchange for reduced exposure to loss, and (2) uncertainty about the network structure makes it considerably more difficult to coordinate on a demanding, but efficient, equilibrium that is typically implemented with complete information.     

汇率变动对长江经济带产业结构的影响研究

本文基于长江经济带11个省市2002-2018年的数据,采用变系数模型分析了汇率变动对于第二产业和第三产业的影响.研究结果显示,汇率变动对长江经济带各个区域产业结构的影响存在显著的不同.就长江上游地区而言,汇率变动仅对重庆和四川产生了显著的影响.在长江中游地区,汇率变动对安徽和江西的影响较为显著.汇率变动对长三角地区的上海、浙江和江苏的第二产业都具有显著的影响.与第二产业不同,汇率变动对区域第三产业影响的差异更为突出.在长江上游地区,汇率变动仅对四川具有明显的影响.在长江中游地区,汇率变动仅对靠近东部沿海地区的安徽和江西两省产生了显著影响.在长三角地区,汇率变动对江苏的影响则不再显著.     

四川三州地区提升路网气候恢复力研究

四川省三州地区地处中国一二级阶梯过渡地带,地质构造复杂,新构造运动强烈,属断裂构造发育,极易因强降水等极端天气诱发山洪、泥石流、崩塌、滑坡等灾害,导致该区域路网灾害发生频率高、强度大和多灾并发。这在高山峡（深）谷区尤为严重。通过分析四川省三州地区的路网灾害风险管理体制机制,发现主要问题在于：灾害科学研究相对薄弱、灾害应急与防治技术较为缺乏、灾害危害度和路网基础设施的易损性较大、路网系统的抗灾能力和恢复力较弱。为了在四川三州地区构建安全可靠、应急保障能力强的现代路网体系,需要通过构建时空、纵向、横向三位一体的综合灾害风险治理体系和健全灾害科学、应急技术、风险管理三者有机结合的防灾减灾机制等措施,不断提升四川三州地区的路网气候恢复力。     

时间战略:战略管理研究中的一个缺失

时间是嵌入在战略中的一部分,战略具有时间依赖的属性。对基于时间依赖属性的管理认知和战略行动间的互动关系进行了分析,阐述了在组织战略形成、执行和创新过程中微观行动主体与组织行动过程在中观和宏观层面的相互作用,探讨了个体行动者在不同时间认知状态下对组织战略行动产生影响的机理。基于时间视角的战略管理活动,有助于增进对组织战略决策、组织创新、组织动态能力以及企业家创新等议题的深入理解,也有助于推进对管理实践中一些两难问题的认识和处理。     

宏达公司战略成本控制模式

针对宏达公司成本管理问题,采用规范研究的方法,分析了宏达船舶配套机械制造公司战略定位、成本动因、价值链以及业务流程,对其在设计成本、研发成本和制造成本方面提出战略成本模式的改进建议。希望宏达公司成本管理能从传统的成本控制模式转变到适应新环境的战略成本控制模式。     

二十世纪日本鲁迅研究的三次转向

20世纪日本鲁迅研究主要经历了三次转向:"文学"的转向、"政治"的转向、"文化"的转向。在这一过程中,出现了"启蒙者"鲁迅、"文学者"鲁迅、"革命人"鲁迅和"科学者"鲁迅等心像,显示着日本鲁迅认识由表及里、从虚到实的理论轨迹和基本倾向,表明了日本鲁迅研究在克服"竹内鲁迅"的过程中,不断创新的努力。