运用汇率变动分析企业的资产负债和风险管理

在当前我国商品供需和资本流动同国际市场的关系日益密切的情况下,很多企业的资产负债管理都可能遇到汇率波动风险,影响资产和负债的现时价值。对此,可采取多种汇率变动风险管理对策。     

浅析高校内部审计风险的防范与控制

随着高校办学规模的扩大,高校内部审计工作风险也日益增大。文章根据高校自身特点,从分析高校审计风险产生的原因入手,提出高校审计人员应树立审计风险意识,采用先进的审计理论与审计技术、合理评价审计风险等一系列措施来防范与控制审计风险。     

新形势下科技成果转化的障碍及对策

从高校与科研院所、企业和其他三个方面分析了新形势下影响我国科技成果转化的多种障碍 ,提出了促进我国科技成果产业化操作性较强的九个方面的相应对策     

B-S模型与企业财务风险管理

由于未来企业价值的不确定性 ,现代企业的负债经营会给企业带来财务风险。企业与其股东、债权人的经济关系具有期权的特性。将Black -Scholes模型应用到企业财务风险的管理中 ,企业通过对其权益与债务资本的投资组合的动态调整 ,达到期权头寸的Delta(Δ)中性 ,实现企业价值的保值和对财务风险的对冲。     

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Assessment of the Thyroid Cancer Risk Related to Chernobyl Fallout in Eastern France

The increase in the thyroid cancer incidence in France observed over the last 20 years has raised public concern about its association with the 1986 nuclear power plant accident at Chernobyl. At the request of French authorities, a first study sought to quantify the possible risk of thyroid cancer associated with the Chernobyl fallout in France. This study suffered from two limitations. The first involved the lack of knowledge of spontaneous thyroid cancer incidence rates (in the absence of exposure), which was especially necessary to take their trends into account for projections over time; the second was the failure to consider the uncertainties. The aim of this article is to enhance the initial thyroid cancer risk assessment for the period 1991-2007 in the area of France most exposed to the fallout (i.e., eastern France) and thereby mitigate these limitations. We consider the changes over time in the incidence of spontaneous thyroid cancer and conduct both uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. The number of spontaneous thyroid cancers was estimated from French cancer registries on the basis of two scenarios: one with a constant incidence, the other using the trend observed. Thyroid doses were estimated from all available data about contamination in France from Chernobyl fallout. Results from a 1995 pooled analysis published by Ron et al. were used to determine the dose-response relation. Depending on the scenario, the number of spontaneous thyroid cancer cases ranges from 894 (90% CI: 869-920) to 1,716 (90% CI: 1,691-1,741). The number of excess thyroid cancer cases predicted ranges from 5 (90% UI: 1-15) to 63 (90% UI: 12-180). All of the assumptions underlying the thyroid cancer risk assessment are discussed.     

基于模糊神经网络的企业人力资源风险评价

作者针对企业人力资源风险评价中的模糊性特点,将模糊逻辑与神经网络融合在一起,并应用模糊神经网络的评价方法,实现了对基于模糊神经网络的企业人力资源风险评价。该评价方法具有很强的学习能力,同时各个评价指标的权重是由网络通过学习自动生成的,因此更具客观性和准确性。     

Characterizing Environmental Harm: Developments in an Approach to Strategic Risk Assessment and Risk Management

Environmental policymakers and regulators are often in the position of having to prioritize their actions across a diverse range of environmental pressures to secure environmental protection and improvements. Information on environmental issues to inform this type of strategic analysis can be disparate; it may be too voluminous or even absent. Data on a range of issues are rarely presented in a common format that allows easy analysis and comparison. Nevertheless, judgments are required on the significance of various environmental pressures and on the inherent uncertainties to inform strategic assessments such as “state of the environment” reports. How can decisionmakers go about this type of strategic and comparative risk analysis? In an attempt to provide practical tools for the analysis of environmental risks at a strategic level, the Environment Agency of England and Wales has conducted a program of developmental research on strategic risk assessment since 1996. The tools developed under this program use the concept of “environmental harm” as a common metric, viewed from technical, social, and economic perspectives, to analyze impacts from a range of environmental pressures. Critical to an informed debate on the relative importance of these perspectives is an understanding and analysis of the various characteristics of harm (spatial and temporal extent, reversibility, latency, etc.) and of the social response to actual or potential environmental harm from a range of hazards. Recent developments in our approach, described herein, allow a presentation of the analysis in a structured fashion so as to better inform risk‐management decisions.     

全面建设小康社会战略目标的实践性思考

党的十六大确立的全面建设小康社会的战略目标 ,反映的既是一个重大的理论问题 ,又是一个重大的实践问题。全面建设小康社会具有强烈的实践性 ,我们要在实践中按照这一目标的要求 ,坚定不移地走建设中国特色的社会主义现代化道路     

律师风险代理制度探析

通过对国外律师风险代理制度的立法比较,论述了我国建立这一制度的实践价值和障碍,进而提出构建我国律师风险代理制度需要通过对其适用范围、基本开支的支付、律师请求留置权的赋予和律师收费评定制度等方面进行立法来加以规范。     

上市公司跨行业转型风险分析与评价

跨行业转型是企业发展过程中的战略选择,是企业保持持续发展或克服衰退重新获得竞争优势的重要手段,但跨行业转型在给企业带来发展机会的同时也带来巨大的风险。在转型决策时,识别风险因素,分析风险因素的作用过程,判断风险发生的可能性和发生时可能带来的损失,可以减少转型风险。本研究采取分步多层模糊综合评价方法反映转型风险的作用过程和风险因素间的不同层次,并用该方法对转型过程的风险进行了综合评价。